New Maine Poll: Marriage Equality Battle Extremely Close
A new Maine poll from Portland-based Pan Atlantic SMS Group (PDF) says 51.8 percent of respondents would vote "no" on Question 1 in Maine, while 42.9 percent would vote "yes". 5.2 percent are undecided on the issue, and there is a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent at the 95 percent confidence level.
We can assume from this data that the race is very, very close.
An interesting note: "Those who believe that if the gay marriage law is upheld it will result in gay marriage being taught in Maine schools" is 75 percent. Apparently the fear-mongering, false ads from the opposition are having some effect, or at least reinforcing beliefs in some misinformed voters.
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Posted Oct. 14,2009 at 1:46 PM EST by Andy Towle in Gay Marriage, Maine, News | Permalink
This is encouraging, but it's reminiscent of what happened in CA. For months and months, all the polls said that Prop 8 would fail. Then, a couple months before the election, the polls shifted. One of the explanations is that the bigots did not want to admit their anti-gay views to pollsters, which caused the early polls to be more favorable. Hopefully, that is not skewing the results above.
Posted by: Ted | Oct 14, 2009 2:11:10 PM
Your commentary interprets the summary of the new Pan Atlantic SMS survey provided today as follows:
"Those who believe that if the gay marriage law is upheld it will result in gay marriage being taught in Maine schools" is 75 percent. Apparently the fear-mongering, false ads from the opposition are having some effect, or at least reinforcing beliefs in some misinformed voters."
However, I think the commentary indicates only that 75% of those who BELIEVE retaining the right for gays to marry in Maine would result in gay marriage being taught in the state's schools will likely vote "yes" (i.e. reject the new law permitting gay marriage). That's a much less dire scenario for our side.
Posted by: Mike | Oct 14, 2009 2:18:33 PM
Yea its badly presented.... but I do think that OF the yes votes, 75% believe it'll be taught in schools.
Posted by: samwise | Oct 14, 2009 2:44:43 PM
i wasn't aware that marriage was taught in schools anyhow-"opposite marriage" or otherwise.
Posted by: alguien | Oct 14, 2009 3:24:33 PM
There's a difference between informing school children of their choices as citizens, and 'teaching' them gay marriage.
Posted by: Gregoire | Oct 14, 2009 3:52:23 PM
Remember, poll results just a few days before the election last year showed NO to Prop 8 winning with 51%. Then people actually voted and Prop 8 won and ripped away gay couples' right to marry. We need to be up by at least 15% to insure we win because a significant portion lies to pollsters that they would support gay rights only to take them away in the privacy of voting booths.
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Posted by: Bill | Oct 14, 2009 4:23:13 PM
What Gay.Inc fails to understand or runs away from is The Fight. What they embrace is The Moral High Ground. It did not work in CA, Nor Oregon, Nor Mississippi, nor about 30 other states. Marriage Equality when put to a vote goes down in flames. Ballot measures are for winning, not an opportunity to "Change Hearts and Minds" as Gay.Inc constantly harps on about. Time to CHANGE TACTICS. If you're in this fight to win then fight to win, no holds barred. If you're in this to change hearts and minds, than save the money time and effort and just "tell people your story" and hope over time they will listen. Gay.Inc is asking for money to "change hearts and minds" I'll ONLY give money to win the fight, no holds barred.
Some of you don't understand what the anti-equality side is doing, they are fighting to win. They do what it takes to win. It's dirty, it's ugly, people get hurt, jaws get broken so to speak. Until such time as Gay.Inc starts to fight to win, they never will. Maine will most likely be another defeat. Oh but the moral high ground will have been kept, sweet to have the moral high ground and still be second class.
Posted by: Sargon Bighorn | Oct 14, 2009 5:18:55 PM
Even though the public claims to hate negative advertising the reason it appears in so many campaigns is because it works. I would be partly disgusted if the No side took to negative advertising, but would also get some satisfaction from it.
Here's my treatment:
An older man gets out of bed with a teenage male and starts to get dressed. He says "Now don't tell anyone."
Voiceover: The first thing abusers say is don't tell.
The man continues to get dressed. He say "You don't want anyone to think you're a fag do you? This has to be our secret."
Voiceover: There are people who benefit from opposing the rights of gay people.
The man continues to get dressed. He ends by snapping a clerical collar around his neck.
Voiceover: Stop the abuse. Vote No on 1.
I think the LGBT community should help the Catholic Church to rid itself of pedophiles by encouraging all people who have been molested by priests to come forward at this time and tell their stories. They want to clean up their act so they would like this help don't you think?
Posted by: Charlie | Oct 14, 2009 5:52:14 PM
"What Gay.Inc fails to understand or runs away from is The Fight."
Which Gay.Inc are you talking about, Sargon? The Maine Equality people on the ground in Maine who know their state inside and out and successfully lobbied to pass marriage equality in the first place? The people who have been thru ballot fights before? They're not Gay.Inc, they are Grassroots.Inc, and they are not the same people who failed in CA. They're more like the people who won in VT.
I agree that we shouldn't always be on the defensive or even always nice, but playing as dirty as the right would not work for us in a live-and-let-live state like Maine. Being clear and forceful doesn't mean playing dirty and ugly. I know that the Equality people in Maine thoroughly understand the opposition because they have been dealing with them for decades now. To suggest otherwise shows a lack of understanding of how New England works. They are not repeating CA's mistakes, and they will put any donations to good use.
Posted by: Ernie | Oct 14, 2009 7:55:03 PM
Isn't this how it looked like for Prop 8 in California? Need to learn from past mistakes!
Posted by: CB | Oct 15, 2009 2:33:43 AM
Ernie, are the opponents of Marriage equality playing the same as you? "...but playing as dirty as the right would not work for us in a live-and-let-live state like Maine". Ernie, did you really say they're playing dirty?
I hope any Maine citizen that wants to marry is allowed to. But Ernie, YOU SEE HOW THEY PLAY and in 30+ states they've played the SAME WAY AND WON EACH TIME.
In no state has marriage equality come because of a vote of the people. NOT ONE.
New England as far as I know is populated by human beings. I think I know how they behave.
Posted by: Sargon Bighorn | Oct 15, 2009 2:43:54 AM
Sargon, yes, I did say that. I would never claim that "Gay.Inc" has not make mistakes in how they fight equality battles or that "Anti-Gay.Inc" has not used fear-mongering with great success. (And I am a big fan of your drive to get gay people to stop using the erroneous term "gay marriage" since there is indeed no such thing.)
But time does not stand still, and the 30+ states you're referring to are not all identical. Vermont is not West Virginia is not Kansas is not California. I was highly critical of our side's response to Prop 8 in CA. But I understand how the legislative battles were won in VT, NH, and ME (something that could not happen in other states), and the people who won those fights--and who are fighting Question 1 now--know what they're doing. Our legislators voted our way because we lobbied them the right way--these votes didn't happen as if by magic.
In VT our legislative victory was in fact a vote of the people because in a small state like ours, our legislators know the pulse of the voters, and the voters supported marriage equality after a decade of effective grassroots work by equality supporters who took the high road and did their ground work and were focused and consistent in their message. (CA failed these tests.)
Ballot initiatives do have special requirements because the anti-gay side pulls out the misinformation stops, but you underestimate the activists on the ground in ME if you think they don't know how to fight the right; they've been doing it for years, and have ultimately won. (I'm sure they've learned from setbacks and mistakes, too.) The difficult fact is that it's easier to appeal to voters' fear of otherness than it is to their sense of fairness, and no campaign is perfect. We may lose even as the polls have us winning now. Getting supporters off their apathetic asses to vote is hard work. If you have specific suggestions and special insights for the equality supporters in ME, pass them on to them.
Posted by: Ernie | Oct 15, 2009 10:56:32 AM
another big problem for gay marriage is that very few gays actually get married even when given the chance. Do you think gays in Canada, Spain, the Netherlands and Massachusetts are rushing to the alter? No , they are not. Only 6% of dutch gays get married and it has been legal there for about 10 years. In Canada marriage rates are also very low and declining for gays and lesbians.
I live in Toronto, the centre of gay life in Canada. nearly 10 million people live within 60 minutes of Toronto and there is a huge gay population. Gay marriage is on the decline though, only 5,000 gay marriages since 2003 , many of them to foreigners in a gay population of probably 300,000 gay adults. It simply isn't common and even amongst married gay couples, many have open relationships. With gay people so concentrated in a few urban centres and so few gays getting married when given the chance, it is harder for straights to witness gay marriage and get comfortable with the idea.
Posted by: John | Oct 19, 2009 8:44:26 PM
this issue is not whether or not gay marriage will be taught in schools... the issue is that it SHOULD be taught in schools. knowing gay people exist is not going to make any children "become gay," but it might lead to a generation that is accepting and let those children who are gay feel like they are equal to their peers.
Posted by: james | Oct 29, 2009 7:05:28 PM