America's Shifting House: Nate Silver's Predictions

Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight offers up his final forecast for today's elections:

Our forecasting model, which is based on a consensus of indicators including generic ballot polling, polling of local districts, expert forecasts, and fund-raising data, now predicts an average Republican gain of 54 seats (up one from 53 seats in last night’s forecast), and a median Republican gain of 55 seats. These figures would exceed the 52 seats that Republicans won from Democrats in the 1994 midterms.

Moreover, given the exceptionally large number of seats in play, the Republicans’ gains could be significantly higher; they have better than a one-in-three chance of winning at least 60 seats, a one-in-six chance of winning at least 70 seats, and have some realistic chance of a gain exceeding 80 seats, according to the model.

However, the same factors that could provide Republicans with extraordinarily large gains if their turnout is strong tomorrow could also cut against them if Democrats turn out in greater numbers than expected, or if the polling has underestimated the Democrats’ standing.

Of the projected Republican gains, many are tenuous. If we allocate all 435 seats to the leader projected by our model — no matter how slim the margin — Republicans would net a gain of 59 seats. In 15 of these 59 seats, however, the Republican is projected to win by fewer than 2 points. It is likely that Republicans will lose at least some of these — which is why the model forecasts an average gain of 54-55 seats, rather than 59, when looking at the seats on a probabilistic basis. If they lost all of them, however, their gains would be merely 44 seats, which would put the Democrats within striking distance of retaining the House. And if Democrats beat their projected margins by about 3 points across the board, they would be about even-money to keep control of the House.

Get out and vote today. TEXT the word PLACE to 62262 to find your POLLING PLACE.

Please join us here at Towleroad at 6:30 pm for an election night liveblog where we'll be reporting and discussing results from races around the country.

Iowa Voters Split on Removing Justices Over Gay Marriage Ruling

The Des Moines Register reveals a new poll which shows the results, perhaps, of the damage done by insidious battering from anti-gay conservatives over marriage equality in the state.

See the fuil results below.

If you've been reading this site, you know there's been  a big campaign underway in the state to oust three Supreme Court justices who approved marriage equality.

The Des Moines Register reports:

Thirty-seven percent of likely voters say they will vote to remove all three Iowa Supreme Court justices in Tuesday's election. Thirty-four percent say they will vote to keep all three, and 10 percent plan to retain some.

The poll shows movement toward the ouster of at least one justice, a result unseen in Iowa history since the merit-selection and retention process was adopted in 1962.

On the ballot are Chief Justice Marsha Ternus and Justices David Baker and Michael Streit, who were among seven justices who voted in the unanimous 2009 decision that allowed same-sex marriage, triggering a political uproar.

Retention votes on justices in Iowa are staggered. A justice's first retention vote comes in the general election at least one year after he or she is appointed to the bench. Afterward, justices face a retention vote every eight years.

We'll see what happens this evening.

Please join us at 6:30 pm for an election night liveblog where we'll be reporting and discussing results from races around the country.

Press Experiencing Whiplash Over Gay Enthusiasm for Democrats

This week, according to Reuters, gays angry at Democrats probably are voting in tomorrow's election, whereas last week we weren't, according to the AP.

One thing they can both agree on: we're angry.

Which is true, but it's no reason not to vote.

Watch: Rachel Maddow Gets Some Gay Info from Pompous AK Teabagger Senate Candidate Joe Miller

In one of the sharpest "on the run" interviews I've ever seen, Rachel Maddow chases down Alaska teabagger GOP Senate candidate Joe Miller and asks him about his adviser Terry Moffitt, who runs the website "Hope for Homosexuals", and also asks him whether he believes being gay is a choice (he gives the bizarre answer that "it's a state issue"), and whether he would vote for a federal marriage amendment (he would).

Nice job, Rachel!

Watch, AFTER THE JUMP...

Watch: IL Governor Pat Quinn's Glee-Inspired Campaign Ad

A bit of campaign ad brillance from Illinois Governor Pat Quinn. The latest polls show Quinn trailing Republican Bill Brady by between 4 and 10 points.

Watch, AFTER THE JUMP...

(via daily dish)

AP Warns That Angry Gay Voters Could Spoil Election for Dems

A new AP article notes both the lack of enthusiasm and anger of gay voters as midterm elections approach, and warns that the mood could affect many races.

If Democratic candidates are counting on long-standing support from gay voters to help stave off big losses on Nov. 2, they could be in for a surprise.

Across the country, activists say gay voters are angry — at the lack of progress on issues from eliminating employment discrimination to uncertainty over serving in the military to the economy — and some are choosing to sit out this election or look for other candidates. President Barack Obama's hometown of Chicago, with its large, politically and socially active gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender community, offers a snapshot of what some are calling the "enthusiasm gap" between voters who came out strong for Obama and other Democrats in 2008 and re-energized Republican base voters, including tea party enthusiasts who say they are primed to storm the polls.

It didn't help that the controversy over the military's "don't ask, don't tell" policy for gays erupted less than two weeks before the election, when a judge overturned it, then Obama's justice department decided to fight the judge's decision. On Thursday, the Defense Department declared that "don't ask, don't tell" is official policy but set up a new system that could make it tougher to get thrown out of the military for being openly gay.

"It's all talk and nothing's happening, and I'm just over it," said Coatar, 62, a church business manager who said she's as concerned about health care and homelessness as about gay issues. "I don't know who to vote for and the election is a week away."

However you might feel about what has been accomplished thus far, not to vote would only be more damaging.

Joe Jervis makes another point: "Folks, you must vote. And yes, you should vote Democrat, even as disappointed as you may feel, if for no other reason than this is the year that we vote in the candidates that will control post-census redistricting. Are you so angry about DADT that you'd put the fucking teabaggers in charge of redrawing the boundaries of your district?"

Today, Save Dade, Miami-Dade County's leading organization dedicated to fighting anti-gay discrimination put out a PSA making a few more good points.

Watch it, AFTER THE JUMP...