President Obama, Gay Marriage and Seven Essential States
According to Politico, there are seven states where President Obama's gay marriage support could hinder his campaign. They are, in no particular order, North Carolina, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, Iowa, where gay marriage is legal, and Missouri.
Here is what reporter Charles Mahtesian has to say about the Florida scene:
One day, gay marriage might be enshrined in law across the map. But it won’t be until after the current generation of senior citizens passes away. Not only do they oppose it by lopsided margins, they also vote in disproportionately high percentages.
Consider this fact about Florida, a state with an unusually large population of seniors. Four years ago, Obama and an anti-gay marriage constitutional amendment shared the Florida ballot. Obama won the state narrowly, the amendment won by a landslide.And the amendment won 600,000 more votes than Obama.
The president can still win reelection without Florida’s treasure trove of electoral votes. But he’d prefer not to risk it, which could be the side effect of a public affirmation of support for gay marriage in a state as competitive as Florida.
I tend to think that despite the much-deserved fanfare over Obama's marriage announcement, most voters this November will be more concerned about the economy than Adam and Steve. And I think the Obama administration knows that, too. It's not as if he will -- or could -- rest his entire reelection campaign on this decision, right?
@Mike C:
"6 in 10 North Carolinians voted for [Amendment One]."
Um, no. 12.4% of North Carolinians voted for Amendment One. 19% of registered voters in North Carolina voted for Amendment One. There are almost as many gay people in NC as there are people who voted for Amendment One.
"[Amendment One] gave North Carolina its biggest voter turnout in over a quarter-century"
No, it gave NC its biggest voter turnout for a primary in over a quarter-century. Many of those additional voters voted against Amendment One. About as many people voted against Amendment One as the entire number of ballots cast in the last primary.
Posted by: Steven | May 10, 2012 12:47:00 PM
61% of North Carolinians did not vote for Amendment One.
61% of the 34% of registered voters who showed up voted for Amendment One. That breaks down to 20% of registered voters just acted as a "majority' and passed the amendment. AND it was virtually the only issue of note on the ballot.
Come November, the Democrats in NC will be in attendance in far greater numbers than two days ago.
Posted by: Randy | May 10, 2012 12:48:44 PM
JC -- and everyone -- brush up on your Conflicts law. There is a long-standing exception to full faith and credit of public acts and records based on a state's strong public policy (there is no real exception for a state's judgments). We have a long history of NOT forcing states to recognize unsavory marriages from another state (Section 2 of DOMA was COMPLETEY redundant and unnecessary). Anti-gay state statutes and state consitutional amendments are the clearest indication of "strong public policy." Now if DOMA is repealed AND sexual orientation is afforded intermediate scrutiny under the 14th Amendment, then we can see challenges to all of those anti-gay state constitutional amendments and state statutes under new federal Equal Protection authority. Needless to say, this would not happen overnight (and could take many MANY years).
Now, you could argue that the public policy exception to Full Faith & Credit is no longer constitutional itself, but that would require a Supreme Court decision to reverse long-standing case law. This would also obviously take many years to work its way up through the courts.
Posted by: Scott | May 10, 2012 12:53:14 PM
@Mike C.
Yes, that's exactly what I'm saying.
Posted by: Chitown Kev | May 10, 2012 1:23:14 PM
Found my research, with links
http://my.firedoglake.com/kevinchi/2009/03/15/houston-we-have-a-problem/
Posted by: Chitown Kev | May 10, 2012 1:26:18 PM
OK, yes, there are OTHER factors that could swing the vote in Florida one way or the other but the gay vote there is critical and if Obama gets 75% of the gay vote as opposed to 65% of the gay vote that could decide the winner in Florida.
I'll leave it at that.
Posted by: Chitown Kev | May 10, 2012 1:38:48 PM
Peering inside the brain with MRI scans, researchers at University College London found that self-described conservative students had a larger amygdala than liberals. The amygdala is an almond-shaped structure deep in the brain that is active during states of fear and anxiety. Liberals had more gray matter at least in the anterior cingulate cortex, a region of the brain that helps people cope with complexity.
The results are not that surprising as they fit in with conclusions from other studies. Just a year ago, researchers from Harvard and UCLA San Diego reported finding a "liberal" gene. This gene had a tiny effect, however, and worked only for adolescents having many friends. The results also mesh with psychological studies on conflict monitoring.
Posted by: timothyjames24 | May 10, 2012 2:58:56 PM
Based on Nate's data, I believe this will help him in Colorado & Nevada, hurt him in NC, and be netural in the other states.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/06/29/the-future-of-same-sex-marriage-ballot-measures/
Posted by: DJ | May 10, 2012 3:04:04 PM
RATBASTARD,
You actually are a racist, or simply a NUTCASE!
IF A WHITE PERSON SHOT YOUR FATHER, WOULD YOU HATE ALL WHITE PEOPLE?
Posted by: BRAINS | May 10, 2012 4:12:25 PM
AND FURTHER RATBASTARD...
US WHITE PEOPLE ENSLAVED AND LYNCHED NUMEROUS "BLACK PEOPLE"....DO YOU SEE "BLACK PEOPLE" HATING ALL "WHITE PEOPLE"???
It is time for you to see a PSYCHIATRIST....because you are DANGEROUS!!
Posted by: BRAINS | May 10, 2012 4:17:02 PM
"I tend to think that despite the much-deserved fanfare over Obama's marriage announcement, most voters this November will be more concerned about the economy than Adam and Steve."
Sorry - have to disagree here. We have seen the gay marriage issue repeatedly brought to the forefront of MANY elections for the sole purpose of emotional manipulation. While I would like to think the 'adults' in this country would cast their vote based on improving the overall financial stability of this country - I really don't believe that at all. Elections are rarely about logic hence millions of dollars of mud-slinging air time.
Posted by: Mark | May 10, 2012 5:26:24 PM
Unfortunately, I think many of the people posting comments here and reading Towleroad have limited meaningful communications with the "average Joe or Jane" voter who is in a quandry over whether to vote for Obama. Many of them think he's a good person, but they have been brainwashed to think that "the government" is taking over private health insurance and yet they still themselves don't have health insurance or are paying more for it; or they (rightly) think that Obama hasn't done enough to save their friends and families who have lost homes to foreclosure (while, at the same time, he supported the so-called 'bailout' of large banks and other businesses); or they have lost their jobs, or have friends and family who have lost jobs, and new jobs are not being created fast enough; or they (wrongly) think that illegal immigrants are taking away their jobs and should be rounded up and deported. Believe it or not, despite holding these views, many of these people are still considering that they might vote for Obama -- because there are many things they don't like about the Republican party or Romney.
The problem with Obama's explicit, public support of same-sex marriage is that it's yet another issue -- and a very emotional, volatile (and for some, religious) issue -- that they will disagree with Obama about. And for many of these people, it's really the straw that breaks the camel's bank on voting for him. If you don't think this is the case, go into these middle-class and lower-middle-class communities and talk with these people, and you'll understand this better.
It's a guessing game how badly this will be for Obama -- only mildly bad, so that he loses VA, NC, NM.... or real bad, so that he loses FL, OH, IOWA and maybe even PA. And as the commenter Mike said, what is riding on this gamble, even MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE PRESIDENCY ITSELF, is the US SUPREME COURT. It really isn't highly likely that Justice Ginsburg will serve another 5 years, and President Romney will appoint another Alito - Scalia - Thomas - Roberts clone, someone who will be approved by a likely Republican Senate. That will be a disaster for gay people for the next 20 years.
There are only 2 routes to salvation here -- re-electing Obama (assuming he hasn't lost those key toss-up states with his endorsement of same-sex marriage), AND ALSO working our asses off to win the referenda in Washington State, Maine, Minnesota and Maryland. Frankly, Maryland is probably a loser for us -- Catholic Church is incredibly organized, extremely large African-American population, and most of the Eastern Shore of Maryland is like Alabama or Oklahoma. But if we can win the referenda in Washington State and Maine (which would then both permit same-sex marriage) and win in Minnesota (which would prevent an amendment to the state constitution), then there may be hope ahead.
Nothing would make me happier that to be wrong that Obama made a bad strategic decision......but activitists pushed hard for it, so now we have to deal with it.
Posted by: MiddleoftheRoader | May 10, 2012 5:52:36 PM
One of the reasons to hope that gay marriage becomes legal is so RATBASTARD and LITTLEKIWI can wed. They would make such a dislikable couple. And the moron poster, Rick could be their flower GIRL. Wouldn't he look so cute skipping down the aisle distributing the little rose peddles along the way. It is the stuff of Hollywood movies.
Posted by: andrew | May 11, 2012 3:23:11 AM
@Ratbastard: Why don't you write down that sad family story of yours. It will make a wonderful afternoon T V special. We all love good FICTION. And even should your story be true, nobody is going to guide the destiny of 330,000,000 Americans because of what happened to the RATBASTARDS!!!! Deal with it.
Posted by: andrew | May 11, 2012 4:24:09 AM