Gay Marriage | Maine | News

Marriage Equality Leads by 20 Points in New Maine Poll

Mainepoll

A new WBUR Maine poll by the MassInc polling group shows a nearly 20 point lead in favor of a ballot measure that would legalize same-sex marriage there.

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  1. That is NOT a 20 point lead. Stop misleading people into a false sense of complacency, that's what gets us creamed in all the close calls. It's only a 20-point lead if you assume ALL the undecideds break our way. History has shown that they all break the other way, plus we lose a few after prechers reinforce the bigotry Sunday after Sunday leading up to the election. It's at best a 10 point lead, which means we only need to lose 5 points to lose it.

    Posted by: BGKev | Jun 18, 2012 12:50:19 PM


  2. not the time to be complacent... remember california? been there, done that.

    Posted by: daftpunkydavid | Jun 18, 2012 12:51:49 PM


  3. Suck on that poll NOM :)

    Posted by: Lucas | Jun 18, 2012 1:03:28 PM


  4. I'll be thrilled if we win in Maine or Washington or Maryland or Minnesota or all of the above, but we won't really win until we stop letting the religious derps put our rights on a ballot.

    Posted by: kpo5 | Jun 18, 2012 1:28:02 PM


  5. Time and time again, polls consistently show that when it comes to GLBT equality, voters are much more bigoted when they can do it with full anonymity. Polls are consistently wrong by a significant margin--they always overestimate how well we're doing, sometimes by a very wide margin, and then we're always left wondering what happened.

    Well, I'll tell you what happened. The bigots pander to the voting public's fears, spend huge amounts of money, and mobilize, mobilize, mobilize. I would not be surprised one bit if that so-called 20-point lead actually means we're trailing by 5-10 points, that's how badly skewed the results are. I'm pessimistic only because the bigots ALWAYS manage to show us up and it's because they outspend us and are far more effective at getting people to vote. We *are* complacent. We are not doing enough. These polls would have to show something like a 50- or 60-point margin to convince me we'd win.

    Posted by: atomic | Jun 18, 2012 1:30:38 PM


  6. NOM only recognizes polls as legit when they are going in their favor

    Posted by: meowen | Jun 18, 2012 1:35:08 PM


  7. And here's what else happens, Atomic.

    We run a closeted campaign. We don't show gay people who talk about hwy marriage is important ot them. we don't show our children. We don't talk about bigotry, especially religious bigotry.

    I've just sent my analysis of why we lost on Prop. 8 to the maine people for the third time in rszponse to yet another request for money. They've never acknowledged the receipt, let alone implemented any of it.

    I told them flat out-- no more money from me if they're going to run the same closeted campaign that they've always run, and which as lost for us 32 times going.

    Posted by: Ben in Oakland | Jun 18, 2012 1:36:59 PM


  8. Agreed with all of the above comments. Most people who don't express an opinion probably don't have to admit they're bigoted, and that leaves a 10 point leave -- which we've all seen disappear many times before.
    The gay community and supporters need to dump as much money, and organizing, as possible into Maine and Washington State. If we lose in Maryland (a real possibility) and if the inequality amendment gets adopted in Minnesota (also a real possibility), we need to win Maine and Washington State to prove that the public at large supports marriage equality where it counts -- the ballot box, not polls.

    Posted by: MiddleoftheRoader | Jun 18, 2012 1:37:58 PM


  9. The undecideds always vote against marriage equality, so it's really 55-45, then 5% lie about supporting equality, so we're at 50-50.

    You need 60% polled in favor before you can start getting your hopes up.

    Posted by: Bill S. | Jun 18, 2012 1:45:07 PM


  10. Not sure why the first poster thinks this isn't a 20 point lead. It clearly is. If all the undecideds break our way, then it becomes a 30 point lead. If they all break against, it becomes a 10 point lead. I agree we shouldn't be complacent, but don't attack Andy for simply reporting accurately.

    Posted by: Brian | Jun 18, 2012 1:50:39 PM


  11. Also, keep in mind that the question in the poll is NOT going to be the question on the ballot (unless something changes). The Republican Secy of State has proposed that the ballot question would read whether a voter is in favor of same-sex marriage: NOTHING would be mentioned about preserving religious freedom. Unless the Secy of State (or the Maine courts) change the phrasing of the ballot question, there is at least another 5% or more votes that will be cast against it. So right now, this is a toss-up.
    If you care, contribute $$ to the Maine groups fighting for equality.

    Posted by: MiddleoftheRoader | Jun 18, 2012 1:52:15 PM


  12. Reliability of this poll aside, it is still WRONG to put marriage equality to public vote, be it up or down! The people behind this campaign don't give a sh*t about principles or pride; they're into advancing their individual political careers much more than they're into Gay Rights advancement. Maine will be an experience credit on their curriculum vitaes, regardless of what ends up happening.

    Posted by: Stuffed Animal | Jun 18, 2012 2:06:09 PM


  13. I believe that the pro-gay marriage question only has a serious chance of passing in Washington and Maine. Maryland and Minnesota both have a larger percentage of religious voters - and their opinions are not likely to change much in a few months. So I'd start by viewing two wins as a resounding victory. And even one win gets the LGBT community something its never had before - voter approval for gay marriage in a referendum. The other side will be forced to acknowledge that the turning point has been reached.

    However, even losing all 4 states wouldn't be total failure. The pro-gay vote in these states is likely to be larger than what it was in the past, so progress is still being made.

    But I'm glad that people here are taking the polling results with a grain of salt. There's nothing worse than imagining that the voters are with you and then realizing on election day that they were never serious about you. Ask Rudy Giuliani.

    Posted by: Mary | Jun 18, 2012 2:10:41 PM


  14. BGKEV you nailed it.
    Talking about a 20 points lead is misleading. Everyone knows that those who are in the "don't know" category almost always end up voting NO.
    So we actually have a 10 points lead (55-45) and, more realistically, we're closer at 50-50 than anything else. We're still facing un uphill battle to win this in November, make no mistake about that.

    Posted by: Peter M. | Jun 18, 2012 2:23:04 PM


  15. I seriously don't give a sh#t how 'popular' it is among the laiety, it SHOULDN'T be up to a vote in the first damn place.

    Posted by: Munro | Jun 18, 2012 2:32:38 PM


  16. Agree it's misleading, but not for BGKEV's reason. Mathematically it's a 20 point lead, which is about as good a place as we could hope for to start. The don't knows are actually pretty small, and I'm sure a portion of them really don't know. Believe it or not, there are people out there who really don't care, and they won't vote. We can assume the other don't knows will vote no, and that there are almost no don't knows who will eventually vote yes. But that still leaves a winning margin. The real problem was pointed out by Middleoftheroader. The poll question really emphasizes protecting religion, and the same sex marriage question is almost buried in there. So I'm sure a portion of the yes vote is really being tricked in this poll, and will defect to the no side when they read the actual question on the ballot.

    Posted by: Brian | Jun 18, 2012 2:55:51 PM


  17. To the posters here who keep saying things like "it shouldn't be up for a vote", or "it's wrong to put it up for a vote" -- sorry, but until the Supreme Court says otherwise (and that won't happen for 25 years if Romney wins and makes any appointments), you need to deal with reality and not with what you would like reality to be.

    Reality is that these votes have come up over 30 times, and they will keep coming up for at least several years. Complain about it all you want, but unless the pro-gay rights side starts winning these votes, it's going to make much longer, and be much more painful, for get marriage equality.

    Maybe you don't like the idea that the sun rises at different times of the day in the same geographic location, depending on seasons. Well, get used to that reality.

    Posted by: MiddleoftheRoader | Jun 18, 2012 2:59:55 PM


  18. "I'll be thrilled if we win in Maine or Washington or Maryland or Minnesota or all of the above, but we won't really win until we stop letting the religious derps put our rights on a ballot."

    In the case of Maine, it was our side who put it on the ballot this time, because they felt confident they could win, and that's how lgbt progress has been made in Maine (alternating with setbacks), as awful as the referendums are. The poll gives reason to be cautiously optimistic, emphasis on cautiously.

    Posted by: Ernie | Jun 18, 2012 5:34:19 PM


  19. Let me remind everyone that NONE of the polls back in 09 from Maine had us polling as high as we are now. Minds are being changed and we are making progress!

    Posted by: Stefan | Jun 18, 2012 6:50:19 PM


  20. i read in the maine papers that the catholic churches dedicated their second collection this past weekend to collect money to fight the marriage equality ballot. HOW can the "church" retain its tax exempt status under this behavior??

    Posted by: grego | Jun 18, 2012 7:27:46 PM


  21. Don't forget all the bigots who poll as a yes because they don't want other people thinking they're bigots (even anonymous pollsters on the other end of the phone).

    Posted by: R | Jun 18, 2012 8:08:28 PM


  22. Don't forget all the bigots who poll as a yes because they don't want other people thinking they're bigots (even anonymous pollsters on the other end of the phone).

    Posted by: R | Jun 18, 2012 8:09:29 PM


  23. To everyone who says it shouldn't be put to a vote, think about it. We need to use all means available to achieve equality, to take one avenue off the table because you find in offensive to have rights voted on is stupid. To put all of your faith in a conservative Supreme Court is crazy.

    Posted by: Ken | Jun 18, 2012 10:10:32 PM


  24. Would we vote on the rights of blacks? WHY NOT? Why not vote on LATINOS being allowed to marry?
    To the above who want us to vote on gay marriage as a public vote, why not vote on the rights of ethnic minorities to have rights? Give one valid reason.

    Posted by: Scott Landores | Jun 18, 2012 10:26:47 PM


  25. Andy, as much as we love you, and as cute as you are, BGKev is absolutely right, and I'm going to reiterate his comment: Your headline "Marriage Equality Leads By 20 Points" is not only factually wrong, it is politically dangerous. BGKev: "That is NOT a 20 point lead. Stop misleading people into a false sense of complacency, that's what gets us creamed in all the close calls. It's only a 20-point lead if you assume ALL the undecideds break our way. History has shown that they all break the other way, plus we lose a few after preachers reinforce the bigotry Sunday after Sunday leading up to the election. It's at best a 10 point lead, which means we only need to lose 5 points to lose it."

    Let's be clear. WE CAN EASILY LOSE this vote in Maine.

    Posted by: Chandler Burr | Jun 19, 2012 8:59:22 AM


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