2012 Election | Barack Obama | Mitt Romney | Nate Silver | News

Nate Silver Looks at Romney's Options Should He Lose Ohio

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Nate Silver's latest update looks at the "essential role" of Ohio, and this election:

Were he to lose Ohio, Mr. Romney would have a number of undesirable, although not impossible, options. The most favorable path, in the view of the model, would be for Mr. Romney to carry both Iowa and Nevada.

Of the two states, Iowa is the easier get. The polls there show a split between ties and leads for Mr. Obama, as opposed to Nevada, where they are mainly split between smaller leads for Mr. Obama and larger ones. In addition, in Nevada, Democrats have a significant voter-registration advantage and are building a large lead in early voting; the polls there have also tended to underestimate Democratic performance in recent years.

But Mr. Romney does not get to pick and choose if he loses Ohio; he would need to win both Iowa and Nevada under this plan. Furthermore, he would need to win New Hampshire to avert a 269-269 tie, where the polls have been inconsistent at best, but seem to show Mr. Obama slightly ahead, on average. On top of all that, he would need to win both Colorado and Virginia.

There are a few less likelier options, but as always from Silver, a fascinating read.

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Comments

  1. Despite the best efforts to suppress the vote by Ohio's Secretary of State, Mitt Romney is NOT going to win Ohio.

    Posted by: Hank | Oct 23, 2012 11:13:12 AM


  2. If Rmoney somehow pulls a W 2000 and wins, I will hereby lose all hope in this country and probably take my a55 to Canada. Getting the eff out before America becomes some sort of Mormon Xtian Tea Party police state.

    Posted by: AJ | Oct 23, 2012 11:37:25 AM


  3. CNN now moves Nevada into all blue state which makes this even harder for Mitt.

    Posted by: thomas | Oct 23, 2012 11:41:05 AM


  4. 1980 baby. Did you see Tingles Matthews last night foaming that the South if full of white racists? If Obama had a prayer, that fool would be fired and out on his ass as an example. Republicans are dancing their way to the polls. Yes, smearing an entire region on the country is always a winner in national elections.

    Posted by: MarkUs | Oct 23, 2012 11:50:07 AM


  5. Let's hope Mitt doesn't win, because gay issues aside, that was one vacant guy up there last night rambling about foreign policy-- even GW Bush seemed more genuinely aware of how the world works than the Rombot, and Romney's hold-over-from-Bush advisors are just itchin' to drive our country from the ditch that Dubya left us in into a bottomless pit of ruinous foreign policy decisions.

    Posted by: bobbyjoe | Oct 23, 2012 11:52:01 AM


  6. In Ohio, Obama was winning by 8 to 10, now he is winning by 4 to 5. Romney has an auto bailout and female ceiling.

    Posted by: Gus | Oct 23, 2012 11:54:45 AM


  7. what does winning by 4 to 5 even mean?

    Posted by: Arrant | Oct 23, 2012 12:00:38 PM


  8. @Arrant: It means Winning by 4 or 5 percentage points.
    @ Marcus: Matthews is not part of the campaign, so what he says is no more meaningful than what Hannity or OReilly says - and they ahve said far worse about Americans and the President.

    Posted by: Chadd | Oct 23, 2012 12:11:28 PM


  9. I wish I could feel more confident about Ohio, because if Florida and Virginia are lost causes for Obama as some pollsters believe, Ohio it is also a must win for Obama. Without Ohio, Florida or Virginia, Obama can win only if he carries all of the other swing states: Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire. Given all the voter supression efforts of Republican operatives, right now I don't have a good feeling about this.

    Posted by: MichaelJ | Oct 23, 2012 12:11:49 PM


  10. I wish I could feel more confident about Ohio, because if Florida and Virginia are lost causes for Obama as some pollsters believe, Ohio it is also a must win for Obama. Without Ohio, Florida or Virginia, Obama can win only if he carries all of the other swing states: Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire. Given all the voter supression efforts of Republican operatives, right now I don't have a good feeling about this.

    Posted by: MichaelJ | Oct 23, 2012 12:11:50 PM


  11. @Arrant: 4 or 5 percentage points

    Posted by: Gus | Oct 23, 2012 12:38:51 PM


  12. Romney must win Ohio, Florida and Virginia to even have a chance at the White House. Nevada nor Iowa are considered tossups (both are +3D) making them next to impossible for Romney to win.

    Posted by: Sam | Oct 23, 2012 1:18:50 PM


  13. Romney should hope for a tie. The House breaks a tie, with each state delegation getting one vote. Republicans will certainly control 26 state delegations.

    Posted by: TC | Oct 23, 2012 1:26:32 PM


  14. Obama will win VA. They are way underestimating the AA vote there.

    Posted by: Mawm | Oct 23, 2012 1:37:42 PM


  15. President Obama's debate win was truly impressive and now makes three out of four debate wins for Obama/Biden. People seem to finally be realizing that Mitt Romney and the GOP have based an enormous amount of their election strategy on lies, hated and deceit. From the 72 million Americans that will be left without any health insurance, whatsoever, by year 2020, under Romney's plan (determined by two independent, non-partisan research studies available to the public), to women and minorities being drastically stripped of their equal rights because of his refusal to support initiatives like the Lily Ledbetter Act which enables women to be paid the same as men provided they do the same work (the first act passed by President Obama) or Hospital Visitation Rights which allows gay people the same visitation rights as straight people when a loved one is in hospital, Americans are seeing Mitt Romney for who he really is. From the West Coast to the East Coast and all of our our great country in between, we Americans are seeing from these debates that a Romney/Ryan plan will leave the middle class being burdened with much higher taxes while the wealthiest Americans pay less in tax because "it will help inspire job hiring" which evidence showed us in the Bush years, does not happen. Out of four debates neither Romney or Ryan could specify their "tax plan" despite being given numerous opportunities. That is not honest. That is not American. That is not integrity and that is certainly not Christian. Mitt Romney also has the highest disapproval rating, of all time, of any Presidential candidate, ever. Higher than Bush. We must understand this. The entire world hates the guy. We must be proud to be Americans. We must have a President who represents all of America and that we can be proud of. We are coming out of one of the most difficult economic times in our history in large part because of two wars we are finally ending. We are bringing our brothers and sisters home. But we cannot go backward. We must go forward. We are Americans. And we will prevail.

    Posted by: Jonathan S. | Oct 23, 2012 1:46:12 PM


  16. Aw heck, Mittens could always just steal the election like Bush in 2000 and 2004. I mean, he's got the money and he's a republican, right?

    If it's close, he'll steal it.

    Sit back and watch for a repeat of history.

    Posted by: johnny | Oct 23, 2012 2:04:03 PM


  17. "take my a55 to Canada"

    There was a great cartoon I saw some weeks ago. A sign at the US/Canada border said, "we don't care who you marry as long as you like hockey".

    Posted by: Diogenes Arktos | Oct 23, 2012 3:49:10 PM


  18. To the commenter who notes that FL and VA are lost to Obama "as some pollsters say," don't worry—that pollster is Suffolk. They wrote him off there and in NC way too soon. Right now, FL is dead even in the polls. NC may be the hardest of the three, but not impossible. And VA is also even. All three would have to swing to Romney. And THEN he would have to win OH, too. It is very unlikely, unless Trump has info that Barack Obama is planning to give Ohio to the black community as reparations for slavery.

    Posted by: Matthew Rettenmund | Oct 23, 2012 4:32:08 PM


  19. Even if VA and FL are lost (and I believe FL is lost to Obama at this point), it doesn't really matter as much. As Nate Silver points out, even with VA and FL, Ohio is NOT enough for Romney to win. He needs that and at least one more swing state (or two depending on the electoral votes). I fail to see how Romney loses Ohio and somehow wins every other swing state. Where Ohio goes, so does several of those others. This is why Nate Silver is still giving Obama an over 70% chance of a win on Election Day. Romney has the harder road to travel to 270, not Obama.

    Also there is like a less than 1% chance of a tie. It's mathematically possible, but based on current polling and likelihood of how states would fall, it's very close to impossible. Nate Silver tracks that as well, by the way. I haven't seen anyone do the work he does on polling.

    Another Virginia factor to keep in mind is that Virgil Goode is running as a third party conservative candidate there and he is very popular in some deep red Romney territory. For real true conservatives who can't stomach Mitt Romney, I imagine he'll get at least a few hundred votes. That doesn't sound like much, but in Virginia, it might just be enough to give the state to Obama. It will be all about turnout. I pray the weather is nice.

    Posted by: Sanderson | Oct 23, 2012 5:19:35 PM


  20. What I think is more interesting is that Romney's lead in Florida is very, very small and very tenuous. Do I think he's more likely to win than not there? Sure. Today. But it's close and without Florida, he could win every other state being seriously contested and still lose the election, and he's only leading by about a point and a half there. This just isn't where Romney should want to be.

    Posted by: jd | Oct 23, 2012 5:23:16 PM


  21. Please VOTE and remind your friends to VOTE! Please do everything you can to prevent Romney from stealing this election.

    Posted by: Tyler | Oct 23, 2012 6:16:05 PM


  22. It'll be interesting if Obama wins the election but Romney wins the popular vote to see if these same nimrods and babies that whined for months after it happened to Gore are still upset when it benefits them? My guess is they will be proven hypocrites, as usual.

    Romney is going to do fine. I voted absentee yesterday and it took me 10 minutes or less, 2 weeks away from an election. In 2008, I voted absentee 2 weeks out from the election and it took me 90 minutes to vote. Turnout is NOT going to be what it was in 2008, which is what almost every poll out there assumes.

    Posted by: Eric | Oct 24, 2012 2:24:58 PM


  23. "It'll be interesting if Obama wins the election but Romney wins the popular vote to see if these same nimrods and babies that whined for months after it happened to Gore are still upset when it benefits them?"

    Yes, but hopefully Obama won't have to disenfranchise voters and steal a state to win its electoral votes. That's how the thieves in the Republican Party did it.

    Posted by: Derrick from Philly | Oct 24, 2012 2:32:16 PM


  24. I am confident that Obama will carry OH, IA, VA, NH, CO and FL though it's a toss up. WI, PA & MN are also leaning heavily Obama.

    I doubt that Romney will get MI too because of the auto bailout. That weighs against him heavily too.

    Romney has very few paths to 270 or a tie. It won't be close in the Electoral College, and on Nov 7th Romney can go back to whatever the heck he was doing before and not bother the American people. Next, we HAVE TO COME BACK IN 2014!!!! We have to vote for a House that will work with the Pres!

    Posted by: Terry | Nov 5, 2012 9:04:32 AM


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