Nate Silver: Presidential Race Nearing a Toss-Up


NYT election forecaster Nate Silver gives Obama a 71% chance of winning the November election, down from 86% a week ago.

Writes Silver:

For the first time since Aug. 28, President Obama is projected to win fewer than 300 electoral votes. And Mr. Obama’s projected margin of victory in the national popular vote — 2.0 percentage points — represents the closest the race has been since June 27.

The forecast model is not quite ready to jump on board with the notion that the race has become a literal toss-up; Mr. Romney will need to maintain his bounce for a few more days, or extend it into high-quality polls of swing states, before we can be surer about that.

But we are ready to conclude that one night in Denver undid most of the advantage Mr. Obama had appeared to gain in September.

Just look at that graph, folks. Let's hope we can starting sending those lines in the opposite direction real soon.