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LGBT Voters Gave Obama Edge In 2012 Election

ObamareelectionPrior to the election, Gallup predicted that LGBT voters, overwhelmingly pro-Obama, had the potential to tip the election decisively in the president's favor.

Well, a new analysis of election data appears to validate that theory.

From a New York Times article called "Gay Voters Seen As Crucial In Obama's Victory" UPDATE: the article is now called "Gay Support Buoyed Obama":

Mr. Obama’s more than three-to-one edge in exit polls among the 5 percent of voters who identified as gay, lesbian or bisexual was more than enough to give him the ultimate advantage, according to the study, by Gary J. Gates of the Williams Institute at the U.C.L.A. School of Law, in conjunction with Gallup. The results are consistent with earlier research on the size and political beliefs of gay voters.

...

As with Latinos and Asian-Americans, the number of voters who identify as gay appears to be growing. Only 1.9 percent of Americans over 65 identify as gay, lesbian or bisexual, according to the Gallup survey, while 3.2 percent of those between 30 and 49 and 6.4 percent of those between 18 and 29 do.

Despite all evidence and reality, J. Hogan Gidley, a communications director for failed presidential candidate Rick Santorum, told the Times that the Republican Party can't move to the center on marriage because they'll lose die-hard conservatives.

"I think it would be a mistake for the party to abandon its moral values,” he said. He later reduced the debate to a battle of "buzzwords:" "We’ve lost the buzzword battle... that marriage is a 'right.'"

R. Clarke Cooper from the Log Cabin Republicans told the paper the GOP's platform is "a good plan," but is too often drowned out by "the cacophony and the noise that is perceived as anti-immigrant, or anti-L.G.B.T., or anti-women." So, basically the platform itself. [Correction: Cooper wrote in to say that he supports the GOP's small-government agenda, not the platform.]

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Comments

  1. No, all the rigged voting machines did!

    Posted by: Johnny | Nov 15, 2012 3:46:05 PM


  2. Get Nate Silver on the line, STAT! He will be able to verify it!

    Posted by: tim | Nov 15, 2012 3:46:51 PM


  3. Why can't these Republicans understand that all this post-game analysis where they whine that they are misunderstood and they really aren't anti-gay, anti-immigration, anti-women is utter malarky as our Vice President would say.

    You wrote it down. It's your platform. If you personally don't believe your platform, then you should leave that party and join another. But don't mea culpa it by saying, "We aren't really horrible" when that's what you have on paper as the basis fo your party. Now you do look like the party of stupid.

    Posted by: Bart | Nov 15, 2012 3:50:43 PM


  4. poor sad frightened Cooper.

    no, it wasn't perceived as anything other than what it frankly, bluntly, and obviously was.

    tax cuts to the wealthy. prejudice against LGBT citizens. attacks on the personal freedoms of a woman's body. and anti-immigrant stances that are less about "illegal immigration" and more about cultural xenophobia.

    the GOP underestimated the american population. there are more intelligent people than they'd prefer.

    Posted by: LittleKiwi | Nov 15, 2012 3:50:44 PM


  5. Littlekiwi, that last sentence sums it up exactly.

    Posted by: Jack M | Nov 15, 2012 4:04:02 PM


  6. "three-to-one edge"? Why the "one"? Are 25% of gays just stupid? Are they so set on being "respectable" that they decide to be Republicans? What a bunch of losers!

    Posted by: Joel | Nov 15, 2012 4:12:10 PM


  7. It's pathetically sad to read statements from gay GOPer denialists like R. Clarke Cooper saying it was his party's "perceived" anti-immigrant, or anti-L.G.B.T., or anti-women Rethuggists positions that cost Romney so many votes from, well, immigrants, LGBTs and women. When will he and other GOPers understand there's nothing "perceived" about their platform or their positions on these issues - then or now. And, unlike so many GOPer politicos have been stating since Obama's re-election, it IS the message (on your many anti-this-and-that positions/platform), not just the messenger that makes a difference. After all, a rose is a rose is a rose.

    Posted by: HadenoughBS | Nov 15, 2012 4:12:24 PM


  8. It amazes me that Gallup's pre-election statement about LGBT people didn't get any real play on the Religious Right. (Based on Silver's comments about Gallup, it looks like this is about the only thing they got right about the election.) Now, with the NYT analysis, I can't wait until the Religious Right finally runs with this.

    Posted by: Diogenes Arktos | Nov 15, 2012 4:14:18 PM


  9. I think it's ridiculous to say that gay voters tipped the election in Obama's favor. It's a form of silly identity politics which the New York Times is famous for. The implication of such a ridiculous asserton is that "the gays" were somewhat like the juror who breaks a tie in a crucial murder trial.

    One could just as easily say that hypochondriacs tipped the scales in Obama's favor because they approved of Obamacare.

    My point is this: don't fall for the silly identity politics of media organizations like the New York Times. The New York Times is known to use gay people to fight its culture wars. Part of this strategy is to package gay people into neat little parcels that can be pulled out every now and then to score political points.

    Don't let yourselves be packaged by anybody.

    Posted by: jason | Nov 15, 2012 4:27:06 PM


  10. "No, all the rigged voting machines did!"

    Nope, Johnny. It was the New Black Panthers--all 16 of them that exist in the USA were out on Election Day. The leader here in Philly is real skinny. He must be frightening--even without guns.

    Posted by: Derrick from Philly | Nov 15, 2012 4:37:09 PM


  11. Oh look it's that Canadian scumbag Lil' K, pontificating on American politics and how much he respects Americans. Of course if Obama had lost, Lil' K would be calling Americans every name in the book, while pontificating about how great Canada is by comparison.

    Posted by: ratbastard | Nov 15, 2012 4:50:48 PM


  12. Oh look, it's Lil' K trolling under the name 'Jason'.

    Posted by: ratbastard | Nov 15, 2012 4:52:18 PM


  13. "Gay men don't have much intellectual clout."

    We should probably cancel democracy, then, since Harmodius and Aristogeiton were gay lovers.

    Posted by: jd | Nov 15, 2012 5:04:47 PM


  14. These percentages are all ridiculous. Gallup couldn't even predict the result of the election, so why should we believe all these percentages? Percentage this, percentage that...it's all garbage.

    Posted by: jason | Nov 15, 2012 5:05:12 PM


  15. Those are interesting statistics about the percentage of various age groups who identify as LGBT. Presumably the number of "practicing homosexuals" hasn't changed that much, only the number willing to IDENTIFY as gay. Add in accepting parents, family members, and friends who consider themselves allies and use that as a criteria for voting and you're damn right it's a group that cannot (or at least should not) be written off by either party.

    In comparison, the Jewish population is only 1.7% of the total.

    Posted by: Caliban | Nov 15, 2012 5:06:49 PM


  16. Interracial giant bests Morman gerbil in test of polls. Is "damn right" a threat? Don't be so defensive -- no one wants your sexuality.

    Posted by: Gary | Nov 15, 2012 5:36:54 PM


  17. All kinds of Kodos to LGBT, Black, Hispanic and Asian voters who gave Obama such high % of their votes. However, this old White guy wants to remind you that Obama defeated Romney by fewer than 3,000,000 votes, and while Obama received only 39% of the White vote that amounted to over 23,000,000 votes. That is a higher actual number of votes than he received from any other group. So us White guys can certainly also claim to have elected the outstanding Mr Obama.

    Posted by: andrew | Nov 15, 2012 5:38:20 PM


  18. more Latinos than gays voted for Obama..interesting..

    Posted by: Alan Brickman | Nov 15, 2012 6:16:09 PM


  19. Gotta love the guy...
    Surprise: Jobless Claims Up 78,000 First Week After Election

    Posted by: Gary | Nov 15, 2012 6:48:33 PM


  20. Deal with it Gary. The people have spoken and elected Mr Obama to another FOUR YEAR TERM!!!

    Posted by: andrew | Nov 15, 2012 7:28:04 PM


  21. Great remarks guys, except for KIWI whose nastiness and low-life parody's of Jason, Ratbastard, Rick, and sometimes me, soils his great expressive skills. He slithers among us striking wherever he finds a different point of view. Frankenfag. Watch who's next. You can always tell.

    Posted by: UFFDA | Nov 15, 2012 8:24:12 PM


  22. The crucial vote wasn't gays, it was women and Latinos, just enough of them voted for him. You can make the claim that white women more than any other demographic were crucial to his win. Even though the majority still voted for Romney, just enough went for Obama, and this unpredictable voter demographic is what gave him a second term. It's predictable that gays would vote for the Democrat, and not surprising Latinos voted the way they did, although I'd like to see if there's a difference in voting patterns between Latino males and females. Females gave Obama a huge win.

    Posted by: ratbastard | Nov 15, 2012 9:57:41 PM


  23. No Stats, no Dems, no Blacks.... no offense

    25% of gays did not vote for Obama because it is just their preference. It has nothing to do with deep seated animosity. Their political preferences, like all their other preferences, developed and are expressed in a vacuum impenetrable by history, societal prejudice, and ignorance.

    Posted by: anony6 | Nov 15, 2012 10:18:00 PM


  24. Andrew: The election is indeed over, so I don't have to tolerate your
    dorky comments. I don't care what you think about anything, so direct your perverted loyalty elsewhere. Maybe you'll become unemployed and become more relevant.

    Posted by: Gary | Nov 15, 2012 11:29:53 PM


  25. Blah blah blah stop. Hammer time.

    Posted by: JASON | Nov 15, 2012 11:39:44 PM


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