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Polls Shows Growing Catholic, Male Support For Same-Sex Marriage: VIDEO

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The crew from MSNBC's The Cycle spent some time yesterday afternoon discussing a new Quinnipiac University poll that shows significant shifts in support for same-sex marriage among demographics once vehemently opposed, including men and White Catholics, the latter of whom now support equality 49-43. 

From the poll's press release:

Voters today are divided 48 - 46 percent on the issue of same-sex marriage, reversing the 55 - 36 percent opposition to same-sex marriage in a July, 2008, survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. White Catholics support it 49 - 43 percent

...

On same-sex marriage, the biggest change over the past four years has been among men. In 2008, they oppose gay marriage 61 - 31 percent. Now they oppose it 50 - 43 percent, a 23- point shift over the past four years. Women, who had opposed it 51 - 40 percent in 2008, now back it 52 - 42 percent, a shift of 21 points. White Protestants are opposed 63 - 32 percent.

"It seems pretty clear that attitudes toward same-sex marriage in American society are changing rapidly. While the country remains split on the issue, supporters have come pretty far in the last four years," said [Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute]. "Since voters 18 to 29 years old support same-sex marriage 63 - 35 percent, once again we see it's just a matter of time."

Can the GOP bring these youngsters into their increasingly stodgy fold? Will the GOP finally embrace equality, or pick a less inflammatory social issue, like marijuana legalization? And where do the Evangelicals fit into all of this?

The Cycle hosts attempt to answer these questions and more AFTER THE JUMP.

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Comments

  1. The only thing clear in this article is how to pronounce Quinnipiac. I know they're a reputable polling outfit, but really that press release is just riddled with errors. For starters, nowhere in the entire article does it tell us what percent of the population support gay marriage, which was the whole point of the poll. We know the breakdown for 2008, but for 2012 all we get was voters are divided 48-46%. I know it's within the margin of error, but I've still never seen a poll that doesn't say which side was leading. The next paragraph is even worse. It states there's been a 23 point shift among men in four years, but says 61% of men opposed gay marriage in 2008, while now 50% oppose it. That would be a shift of 11%. Same mangling for the women's stats. And the basic premise, that the biggest change has been among men, is clearly not correct. I say clearly but it's really not, as I think it's possible that the poll means to say men opposed gay marriage in 2008 but now support it. But when a polling operation gets support and oppose mixed up, and can't even tell you what the outcome of the poll is, something is very seriously screwed up there.

    Posted by: Brian | Dec 6, 2012 9:08:30 AM


  2. @Brian: Thanks for saving me the time of reading and commenting further on the article.

    Posted by: Diogenes Arktos | Dec 6, 2012 9:33:32 AM


  3. "Can the GOP bring these youngsters into their increasingly stodgy fold? Will the GOP finally embrace equality, or pick a less inflammatory social issue, like marijuana legalization? And where do the Evangelicals fit into all of this? "

    I think at the top of the Republican list for the Midterms is 'no creepy old white men talking about rape.'

    I don't see the GOP supporting marriage equality on a national level for 2014 or 2016, but I don't think you will have all the Republican candidates - except the ones who clearly will not win the primary - lining up to sign a pledge supporting a federal amendment to ban marriage equality.

    I think the logical course of action for the GOP is to drop the blanket opposition to marriage equality and emphasize it as a states rights issue. They can easily moderate their social conservative credentials by opposing it while also demanding it be put up to the vote.

    There really isn't any other choice. As much as I hate to poke holes in the fantasies of the social conservative punditry at Red State, American Thinker, NOM et al., people do not become that much more socially conservative over their lifetimes. And all the straight people now who support gay marriage because they have gay family members or friends are not going to be swayed back into thinking their relatives and friends matter less than they do.

    The war isn't over, but the tide has decisively turned, and there is no retreat.

    Posted by: Nat | Dec 6, 2012 9:51:23 AM


  4. Brian,

    1. If you click through to the actual Quinnipiac press release, you'll see they have a chart indicating that 48% of those polled support equality and 46% oppose, so your issue on that point is with Towleroad, not Quinnipiac.

    2. As for men, they went from opposed by a 30 point margin in 2008 to opposed by a 7 point margin now. That's a 23 point swing. Similarly, woment went from opposed by an 11 point margin in 2008 to supportive by a 10 point margin now. That's a 21 point swing.


    Posted by: Patric | Dec 6, 2012 10:07:35 AM


  5. Catholics have always been more liberal in their politics than Protestants in the USA. The most liberal states in the U.S. like Mass, RI, NY, NJ, NM, Conn, Calif et al have the lagrest Catholic populations. Most of the leading liberals in the U.S Congress since WWII have been Roman Catholic Senators and Representatives. Catholics for at least the last 65 years have usually voted more Democratic than Republican. All this dispite what their Bishops may preach.


    Posted by: andrew | Dec 6, 2012 10:07:43 AM


  6. Well, good poll or bad poll, it's another poll that shows more support and growing support for marriage equality than opposition. That's what's most important. Every single poll that shows this will change minds. People will start to see where the situation is headed and begin to make changes to their own mentality. Also between 65-70% of teens to 29 are pro-marriage equality and the gender gap between men and women is much less pronounced in this group............it's universally accepted.

    It's just a matter of time. I take this for granted but up through 2010 around-over 50% of people were against marriage equality in most polls. Now it's in the low-to-mid 40s with marriage equality support around 50%. We've made A LOT of gains in a short amount of time and we cannot forget that. We are winning. We have to keep fighting and keep educating the masses, but we're winning.

    Posted by: Francis | Dec 6, 2012 10:44:24 AM


  7. Unlike evangelicals, Catholics are more rational and independent.

    Posted by: Gast | Dec 6, 2012 11:16:14 AM


  8. @NAT: You wrote some very good points but my question is this: why in the hell should we even care whether or not the GOP "changes"? I don't.

    I want to see the GOP, the Republicans, their supporters, the evangelical scum that is their base, their corporate whore-masters hoisted on their own petard and done away with, removed from any relevance in American civil life.

    Even your suggestion that the GOP regard marriage equality as a "states rights issues" reeks of an accommodation with an outdated and vile philosophy: that my and, I am assuming, your civil rights are not of Constitutional equality and should be left to the vagaries of individual state politics to decide. That, my friend, is unacceptable.

    Towleroad posted an article the other day by its in-house legal expert that was a hand-wringing soap opera about gay Republicans and how they must find a way to influence their Republican masters to change the GOP's thinking about LGBT civil rights.

    It doesn't matter when or if the Republicans change their minds. The Republican Party is a political psychosis that does not deserve one more day of relevance or consideration as having a "proper" role to play in American politics.

    The last 30+ years up to this most recently-concluded election cycle should be Exhibit A as to why LGBT people and Americans in general should expunge this political cancer called the Republican Party from any say and any influence in American civil governance once and for all.

    Posted by: jamal49 | Dec 6, 2012 11:18:52 AM


  9. interesting to know my generation 52yrs old - are such assholes of Bigotry

    Posted by: Disgusted American | Dec 6, 2012 11:33:14 AM


  10. The main opposition to the 'Gay Agenda' [sorry, I had to say it ;)] is now and always has been evangelical Protestants based mostly in the south. And one of the main reasons why there's still significant black American opposition to many gay rights issues is because most black Americans have a strong connection to the south and southern style evangelical Protestant religion.

    I'm not hating on ANYONE by stating the above. I judge people as individuals, but used the above generalizations simply to make a brief point.

    I also have an issue with the way they group together age groups in these polls. 45-64 is a big jump in numerous ways. As I stated in a previous post, there was a sea change in social attitudes between roughly 1960-1970. Those who came of age from say the mid to late 50s-early 60s, and those who came of age from roughly the late 60s-early 70s onwards grew up in radically different social environments. I would say that 45-64 age group has been unduly influenced by the upper end. I think you'd find far more support among those 45 to say 55.

    Posted by: ratbastard | Dec 6, 2012 11:58:31 AM


  11. We shouldn't need to wait until the next election to see progress. More progressive states can start to enact marriage legislation tomorrow if they wanted to. What matters is the state-by-state polling on this issue.

    Posted by: anon | Dec 6, 2012 1:10:54 PM


  12. actually, the main opposition to the LGBT community comes from moneyed white heterosexual Christian Republicans.

    that is, you know, if you wanna deal with facts.

    Posted by: LittleKiwi | Dec 6, 2012 1:17:42 PM


  13. "We shouldn't need to wait until the next election to see progress. More progressive states can start to enact marriage legislation tomorrow if they wanted to. What matters is the state-by-state polling on this issue."

    Anon, that's not entirely true. Thanks to Ken Mehlman, George Bush, Karl Rove and those who supported them in their efforts, many states, including many blue states, passed constitutional amendments reserving marriage to heterosexuals which will now need to be overturned. State legislatures are not free to enact marriage equality in the face of such amendments (except in Hawaii, which has a uniquely worded constitutional amendment). As such, states like Oregon, Colorado, Nevada and Wisconsin need to repeal their bans. While Republican governors would make passage of marriage equality laws in Nevada and Wisconsin unrealistic in any event at this time, we'd likely be in a position now to pass marriage equality laws in Oregon and Colorado were it not for those bans. Look for Oregon to possibly be the first state to repeal such a ban, as early as 2014. In states which never passed such bans, such as Rhode Island, Delaware, Minnesota and Illinois, and in the aforementioned Hawaii, we could expect action sooner. You can thank Ken Mehlman and all the other self-loathing Log Cabin types for this predicament. Log Cabin Republicans: 30 years of proudly screwing over the LGBT community in pursuit of lower tax rates.

    Posted by: Patric | Dec 6, 2012 1:34:56 PM


  14. now now, patric. you need to be more fair. the LCR aren't pursuing lower tax rates. they're fruitless pursuing the pithy tolerance of their families that wish they weren't gay.

    Posted by: LittleKiwi | Dec 6, 2012 1:42:22 PM


  15. My take on this is undoubtedly different from most of you.

    First of all, very few people feel passionate about this issue, certainly those who favor gay marriage generally feel little real passion about it, so few politicians have anything really to fear by opposing it.

    Secondly, I see the growing support among men in the context of the wider changes in the male culture.....I think men are realizing that relationships with women are generally unhappy and even toxic and their natural emotional bonds are to other men....but in order to make those bonds possible, the homophobic male cultue that frowns on them has to be eliminated--so I see the support for marriage to be less about marriage, per se, and more about making emotional intimacy between men an acceptable part of the culture.

    And that is the only change that REALLY matters in the long run; all the rest of this stuff is nothing more than fluff....

    Posted by: Rick | Dec 6, 2012 2:17:11 PM


  16. By the way, I've been having the most incredibly foul-smelling and difficult to pass bowel movements lately. It's literally like I'm passing bricks of stomach rot. I've tried using feminine douches to clean it all out but they're a bit too effeminate for my liking. Does anyone know of a really masculine douching kit?

    Posted by: Rick | Dec 6, 2012 2:20:13 PM


  17. "@NAT: You wrote some very good points but my question is this: why in the hell should we even care whether or not the GOP "changes"? I don't."

    I'm not sure how much you should care, frankly. There might be some advantage to LGBT rights advancements in having such virulent opposition to us, since it tends to alienate the fence-sitters.

    Anyways, that wasn't my point. I was discussing what would be advisable for the GOP in the next four years, not what would be the best outcome for gay people. I don't see much value in demanding something that clearly isn't going to happen, i.e. 99% of the party abandoning its current position. My point was that it is possible for the GOP to have it both ways if it so chose - it could maintain a vague opposition to marriage equality at the national level with a more concerted opposition at the state level. I don't think that such an approach would alienate their social conservative, which they will continue to rely on, even as its influence diminishes.

    "Even your suggestion that the GOP regard marriage equality as a "states rights issues" reeks of an accommodation with an outdated and vile philosophy"

    Again, I'm not looking for any sort of accommodation with the GOP. That ship clearly sailed when they defined accommodation as not trying to imprison people for being gay. I'm simply describing what would be most logical for the GOP in the near future to do, given what the GOP is.

    Posted by: Nat | Dec 6, 2012 9:21:35 PM


  18. LOL !!! Reports like this just kill the anti-Catholic ghetto gays of Manhattan (remember the Duke lacrosse case, Belonsky ? Hey, where's your Crystal Mangum today?)

    Posted by: Yupp | Dec 6, 2012 11:02:25 PM


  19. I'm willing to bet that the the change is brought about by more and more people coming out - that the more straight men know that they have gay loved ones the harder it is for them to be willing to disenfranchise them.

    Posted by: DannyEastVillage | Dec 7, 2012 6:39:36 AM


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