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PPP Poll Reveals Interesting Marriage Equality Divisions In Illinois

IllinoisgreetingThe latest Public Policy Polling survey shows more Illinois voters favor marriage equality than those who oppose, 47% versus 42%, and that activists there should focus on convincing white voters to side with equality.

From the Windy City Times:

Fifty-eight percent of voters under age 45 support marriage equality, compared with 37 percent who oppose it, the poll found. Black voters supported same-sex marriage 60/16, PPP said. Latinos supported Illinois marriage equality at 70/23.

The majority of white voters did not support same-sex marriage in Illinois with 40 percent supporting and 51 percent opposing.

Those numbers could be good news for LGBT advocates as many believe Illinois is on the cusp of achieving marriage equality. Two lawsuits filed in Cook County seek to overturn the ban on same-sex marriage in Illinois, and pro-gay lawmakers have stated that a vote on a marriage equality bill could be just around the corner.

Rick Garcia, who has been instrumental in the passage of pro-LGBT policy in Illinois, predicted that marriage equality in the state would come "sooner rather than later."

If the Supreme Court rules in favor of equality, though, that moment will be even sooner than imagined.

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Comments

  1. It seems that undecided voters almost always vote against our rights. So at 47% in favor it would be good to hold off until that number gets a little higher.

    Posted by: Charlie | Dec 6, 2012 8:53:04 PM


  2. "If the Supreme Court rules in favor of equality, though, that moment will be even sooner than imagined."

    There is very little prospect that the Supreme Court will issue a ruling in the Perry case that will mandate marriage equality in Illinois or any state other than California. The most likely results of the Prop 8 case are that (i) the Court denies cert, in which case marriages can commence in California but not elsewhere, (ii) the Court grants cert and upholds the 9th Circuit's intentionally narrow ruling, with the result that marriages can commence in California but not elsewhere and (iii) the Court grants cert and rules against us, in which case we secure marriage rights nowhere as a result of the case. Only if the Court elected to issue a more sweeping ruling in our favor than the 9th Circuit issued would this case result in mandated equality in Illinois and similar states and courts are loathe to issue more sweeping rulings than necessary.

    "
    It seems that undecided voters almost always vote against our rights. So at 47% in favor it would be good to hold off until that number gets a little higher."

    The immediate push is for passage of a marriage equality bill by the state legislature. Is Illinois a state like Washington and Maryland where such a law can be subjected to a popular vote without the cooperation of the legislature itself? If not, we need not worry about a popular vote unless Republicans retake control of the state government in 2014, an unlikely prospect given the Dem margins currently.

    Posted by: Patric | Dec 6, 2012 9:32:36 PM


  3. The breakdown by racial demographics is both unsurprising and hilarious. The supportive whites are, of course, in the greater Chicago area, and the anti-equality whites are those asswipe evangelicals in the small towns and rural areas of downstate Illinois. (Poor Rick always gets so upset when I criticize his homophobic white evangelical relatives.) I could have told you that blacks in northern blue states are supportive. And Latinos are the most supportive of all. Ratbastard and Rick, where are you? LOL.

    Posted by: Artie_in_Lauderdale | Dec 6, 2012 10:13:54 PM


  4. I know a lot of people were unhappy when Illinois went for Civil Unions before marriage. But you know what? As in Vermont, having civil unions first---to get people used to the idea--sometimes helps give a big boost to the pro-marriage side.
    Think of civil unions as the "Training Wheels" for the marriage bicycle. ;-)

    Posted by: RaleighRob | Dec 7, 2012 9:56:52 AM


  5. "It seems that undecided voters almost always vote against our rights. So at 47% in favor it would be good to hold off until that number gets a little higher."

    It's not up to the voters in Illinois, it's up to the legislature or the court. Citizen initiatives are non-binding in the state and attempts to get an anti-gay marriage initiative on the ballot have failed. So, no need to hold off in Illinois if there are the legislative votes to pass a marriage bill.

    Posted by: Ernie | Dec 7, 2012 10:11:10 AM


  6. PATRIC:

    Exactly right. There is literally no chance that SCOTUS, if it takes the case, will open the door to nationwide gay marriage:

    1) As you said, the court is loathe to issue sweeping opinions when a narrow one would address the dispute.

    2) Kennedy is the vote that would win this case. He's probably on the fence, but leaning toward our side. Not sure he would bite at an opinion that goes the full distance.

    3) If SCOTUS accepts, and we have the 5 votes, my bet is that Roberts will switch over to the majority, and make sure that there's only a plurality opinion, meaning the only precedent that comes out of this is an affirmation of the narrow 9th Circuit ruling.

    Posted by: Jack | Dec 7, 2012 11:11:36 AM


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