Nate Silver Predicts the Oscars

Bestpicture

Yes, it's Oscar weekend and NYT numbercruncher Nate Silver has turned his attention to the Academy Awards based on statistics of the overall awards season.

Silver predicts Argo in a landslide, with Steven Spielberg having a slight edge over Ang Lee as Best Director. Affleck, of course, was snubbed.

He gives the Best Actor trophy to Daniel Day-Lewis, the Best Actress trophy to Jennifer Lawrence, Best Supporting Actor to Tommy Lee Jones, and Best Supporting Actress to Anne Hathaway, whom he calls "as safe a bet to win for 'Les Misérables' as Mitt Romney was to win Utah."

See how he came up with his numbers here.

Do you agree with Silver's picks? Why or why not?

Comments

  1. MickleSt says

    I still don’t get all the Argo love. A really interesting true story hijacked by “Hollywood Screenwriting 101″ ideas. It’s not a bad film but it didn’t leave me breathless or thoughtful or anything. Meh.

  2. MickleSt says

    I still don’t get all the Argo love. A really interesting true story hijacked by “Hollywood Screenwriting 101″ ideas. It’s not a bad film but it didn’t leave me breathless or thoughtful or anything. Meh.

  3. jeremyrain says

    I think Emmanuelle Riva will get the Oscar. BAFTA is always a good indicator for this particular award. I watched “Silver Lining Playbook”, yes it’s very good. But after I watch “Amour”, my heart felt like it was squeezed out by Riva’s performance. Devastatingly beautiful.

  4. Joseph says

    The Academy better give Best Actress to Emmanuelle Riva. Really, there’s no comparison between her devastating, beautiful, humane performance and any of the other nominees.

    Unfortunately, I suspect Nate is right: the Academy will give it to the pretty young starlet in a Harvey Weinstein romantic comedy, just like they did with Gwyneth Paltrow.

  5. says

    that “Harvey Weinstein romantic comedy” had my stomach in tense knots through most of it. you guys saw a rom-com? yikes. they must have shown a different film when i was at the cinema.

    people sometimes get this idea that films that balance comedic elements, and performances, with drama and pathos and all that stuff are less dignified and worthy of praise. comedy aint easy. it requires incredible skill and precision timing and a razor-sharp insight into the little details of human nature.

    it’s a strong year for nominees in all categories, except perhaps Best Supporting Actor which may be the most uninteresting that race has ever been.

    and best original score, which is particularly shameful in that it all but ignored the most striking and memorable scores of the year.

    and while it’s unlikely, Ang Lee’s work in Life of Pi needs to be recognized for the staggering achievement that it is. the man’s talents are seemingly limitless. it was pure unadulterated cinema at its finest.

  6. says

    i didn’t fit it remotely wretched. it’s a perfect companion piece to O. Russell’s oeuvre. Spanking the Monkey. Flirting With Disaster. Three Kings. I Heart Huckabees. The Fighter.

    the characters, their situations, the commitment of the actors to said characters. the pain on display along with the love, the despair, and the frustrations of each of their specific struggles.

    you can blame that thing called “empathy” that i was cursed with.
    😉

  7. Adam Dunn says

    Didn’t see Argo, but I think Lincoln will win. Zero Dark Thirty was the best movie of the year, but is too conroversial. Didn’t see Silver Linings as who wants to watch a straight couple’s romance?

  8. says

    i still say Samuel L. Jackson was overlooked for his incendiary and profoundly revealing performance as a gay republican in Django Unchained.

    jokes aside, i was pretty sure DiCaprio was going to get a supporting actor nod for that film. it was a real departure for him.

    money’s on Skyfall for cinematography, too. not that i think it was the best shot film of the year, because i don’t, but roger deakins is an academy darling who has, alas, never won a statuette.

  9. Zlick says

    I liked Argo, but it’s so over-rated. It’s going to win Best Picture by virtue of the perceived snub of Affleck as director. That’s just about as unfortunate as Hathaway winning Best Actress for a single song sung, and Waltz winning Best Supporting Actor for what was clearly a leading role. But that’s the way the Oscars go – not exactly fair, and also subjective.

    But Silver is right. Since the “snub,” Affleck and Argo have swept every other award available, and that augers well for it winning Best Picture at the Oscars. Oh well, while the nominees are always indicative of quality – when’s the last time you felt a Best Picture Oscar winner was really the best picture of the year?

  10. says

    @Zlick – Schindler’s List. and that was a magical, MAGICAL, year when the movie gods decided that 1993 would be a year of truly brilliant quality cinema.

    i still blanche when i remember that Braveheart and Gladiator took home best picture statuettes.

    i won’t knock Titanic, though. despite my personal feeling that 1997’s best film was The Sweet Hereafter (I have to say that. I’m Canadian), the reality is that big epic old-fashioned melodrama pleased more people than practically any other film in history. it broke records. it was seen over and over again by people in a way that a film hadn’t done in decades. what else could POSSIBLY win “best picture” in a year when the moviegoing public made it clear which film moved them most?

    what I find most interesting this year are the nods to Haneke. I’ve loved his works for years, but it says a lot that a filmmaker whose career so far as been made of some of the most challenging, difficult, confrontational uses of cinema gets his accolades for his kindest, gentlest and most-accessible work.

    it makes me think one day we’re gonna see Lars Von Trier up there for some honey-lensed film about old people finding love in the mountains. where for once charlotte gainsbourg doesn’t self-mutilate.

  11. EricD. says

    I’ve seen ‘Lincoln’, ‘Argo’ and ‘Beasts of the Southern Wild’. The first two were both good, but ‘Beasts’ just blew me away, such that it’s currently my favorite movie of all time. I think that the oscars are going to disappoint me this year, not sure about tuning in yet.

  12. Zlick says

    L’il Kiwi: “the reality is that big epic old-fashioned [melodrama] pleased more people than practically any other film in history. it broke records. it was seen over and over again by people in a way that a film hadn’t done in decades. what else could POSSIBLY win “best picture” in a year when the moviegoing public made it clear which film moved them most?”

    Ironically enough, except for the specific genre (in your quote, melodrama), the exact same can be said of “Star Wars,” yet it lost to “Annie Hall.” Itself hardly a bad film, but I think the overwhelming sentiment of the time and the arc of cinema history confirms what the winner should have been. 😉

    But you’re right about Schindler’s List, and there have been many other deserving winners. Yet there have been far more years when, to use an apt example for this site, Brokeback Mountain was robbed.

  13. StillmarriedinCA says

    Silver Linings was the best by far. The whole cast was excellent. Jennifer Lawrence deserves the win. De Niro deserves the best supporting statue, but won’t get it. Beasts of the Southern Wild sucked.

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