Nate Silver's New Election Forecast Puts GOP Chances of Taking Over Senate at 60-40
In a slight revision to earlier forecasts, statistician Nate Silver predicts that the GOP remains slightly favored to take control of the US Senate in the 2014 midterm elections this November.
He writes over at FiveThirtyEight:
Summing the probabilities of each race yields an estimate of 51 seats for Republicans. That makes them very slight favorites — perhaps somewhere in the neighborhood of 60-40 — to take control of the Senate, but also doesn’t leave them much room for error. This bottom line is not much changed from our forecasts in June or in March (or even the one we issued last July).
The outlook in some races has changed — but most of these changes are minor. At this point in the cycle, I’d be suspicious of a large swing in a forecast in the absence of some precipitating event
Of those races that have slightly changed - Senate races in Montana, Mississippi, Georgia, and Arkansas have all improved chances at a GOP victory. Democrats in the Senate races in New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Kansas, meanwhile, have all slightly improved their chances at winning. And a few other states Silver is less inclined to put in either column due to either extremely close polling numbers or biased/inaccruate polling information.
Read Silver's forecast in full HERE.