Nate Silver's New Election Forecast Puts GOP Chances of Taking Over Senate at 60-40

Silver

In a slight revision to earlier forecasts, statistician Nate Silver predicts that the GOP remains slightly favored to take control of the US Senate in the 2014 midterm elections this November. 

He writes over at FiveThirtyEight:

Summing the probabilities of each race yields an estimate of 51 seats for Republicans. That makes them very slight favorites — perhaps somewhere in the neighborhood of 60-40 — to take control of the Senate, but also doesn’t leave them much room for error. This bottom line is not much changed from our forecasts in June or in March (or even the one we issued last July).

The outlook in some races has changed — but most of these changes are minor. At this point in the cycle, I’d be suspicious of a large swing in a forecast in the absence of some precipitating event

Of those races that have slightly changed - Senate races in Montana, Mississippi, Georgia, and Arkansas have all improved chances at a GOP victory. Democrats in the Senate races in New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Kansas, meanwhile, have all slightly improved their chances at winning. And a few other states Silver is less inclined to put in either column due to either extremely close polling numbers or biased/inaccruate polling information.

Read Silver's forecast in full HERE

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Comments

  1. Lord. I don't need depressing news on a Monday.

    Posted by: Derrick from Philly | Aug 4, 2014 12:15:03 PM


  2. Meaning that ALL OF US DEMOCRATS need to get out and vote. All of us.

    Posted by: kdknyc | Aug 4, 2014 12:21:03 PM


  3. I would have to disagree about not much has changed since March seeing the GOP decided to make their last act suing Obama.

    Posted by: McMike | Aug 4, 2014 12:23:58 PM


  4. you know, IF the country does Vote and gives the GOP control...then this country deserves ALL the bad that comes from it.....it will just prove what Hateful bastards really are at the Root of America...

    Posted by: disgusted american | Aug 4, 2014 12:49:44 PM


  5. if the Democratic Party can't figure out a way to energize their base to come out and defend themselves and their ideals then unfortunately we must live with the disasters that this Tea party flavored GOP will inflict on us.

    Posted by: Chriss | Aug 4, 2014 1:00:06 PM


  6. Horrific.

    Posted by: Andy | Aug 4, 2014 1:03:20 PM


  7. What DISGUSTED AMERICAN says.

    Posted by: JackFknTwist | Aug 4, 2014 1:05:41 PM


  8. It's a fairly safe bet on Silver's part. The historical trends are in his favor.

    Posted by: Diogenes | Aug 4, 2014 1:10:37 PM


  9. What the hell is wrong with the American electorate, besides ignorance???

    Posted by: Jack Wilson | Aug 4, 2014 1:12:36 PM


  10. How much you wanna bet that the first thing they do is—filibuster reform! No more requirement for 60 votes to invoke cloture and pass anything. It's what the Republicans referred to as "the nuclear option" when they thought the Democrats might do it. Mushroom cloud in 5... 4... 3....

    Posted by: Gene | Aug 4, 2014 1:17:46 PM


  11. witness the powerful effectiveness of the right wing propaganda machine. the us allows these far right wing media stars to pump out lies non-stop 24/7. the electorate is easily confused by their lies into voting against their own interests. and just about all the left has put up to combat it is msnbc.

    most other western industrialized countries have strict libel, slander and hate speech laws to prevent this.

    Posted by: ascanius | Aug 4, 2014 1:26:16 PM


  12. Can those baby boomers fade away as soon as possible ?

    Posted by: ppp | Aug 4, 2014 1:32:18 PM


  13. None of this matters if Democrats show up. Period.

    Republicans are in a better position because of that.

    VOTE!

    In many states, the ballot can come to your house, so there's no excuse. Please participate in your elections.

    Politics is local and for whatever reason, we let other people make decisions that adversely affect our lives, and then we complain. We should probably stop that.

    Posted by: Marcus | Aug 4, 2014 1:34:16 PM


  14. You all must read the entire Nate Silver article. The GOP's chances are only at 60% because there are two states Arkansas and Louisiana, both currently held by Democrats that are at 50/50 chance of flipping. If we hold at least one of these along with the others that are less vulnerable, Democrats hold the Senate. The aggregate seat count right now from Nate Silver is 50.9 GOP to 49.1 Democrat. Hardly a wave election if I might add. Plus much of the polling out right now are dubious GOP push polls or internal campaign polling. Nate makes note of this in his article. Remember, it is still early. Most of the movement does not occur until after Labor Day. In 2012, the Democrats chances actually improved as we got closer to the election. Just remember this - Nate Silvers results are similar to is previous predictions for the past few months. The GOP has not made much gain but are mostly in stasis with a few chances here and slightly improving such as Iowa. Overall, despite the Presidents low poll numbers and all of the other issues in the media at the moment, the GOP chances are about where they were after the 2012 election. We are playing on their turf and yet they still cannot lock down enough states, even in many that Romney won in 2012. Democrats have consistently out raised the GOP and are polling slightly ahead even with the negative headwinds. I wouldn't wanted put it pass the GOP to blow yet another chance to take the Senate.

    Posted by: Shaun | Aug 4, 2014 1:58:10 PM


  15. Agree with others. We MUST gotv and treat this like a Presidential election year!! No excuses.

    Posted by: Tom | Aug 4, 2014 2:18:33 PM


  16. So, impeachment, and a less liberal Supreme Court are on the way.

    Posted by: Randy | Aug 4, 2014 3:30:09 PM


  17. Even if the Republicans had 51 Senators they would still need Democrats to pass anything. It could force a coalition of moderate Republicans and Democrats to get 60 votes. If this happens hopefully tea party politicians' heads would explode.

    Hillary is looking better and better to be the next President. Let a Republican Congress, if there is one, deal with that.

    At the same time Paul Ryan is looking less and less sure of himself.

    Republicans have nothing to celebrate. They are desperate.

    Posted by: james street james | Aug 4, 2014 3:34:01 PM


  18. The election doesn't really start until after Labor Day, but all that will change at that point is turnout. It's really a case of angry married women upset over Obamacare premiums versus angry single women over the Republican "war on women". Everyone else is going to vote the same way as they always do.

    Posted by: anon | Aug 4, 2014 4:43:41 PM


  19. Am I the only gay conservative here? The GOP would have been set well for this year if it weren’t for two candidates in 2012 who were more interested in their pet social issues rather than appealing to a broad cross-section of their state. Republicans want to create prosperity and offer individuals grater freedoms, such as national concealed carry.

    Posted by: Muscular | Aug 4, 2014 5:12:14 PM


  20. Tomorrow, Pres Obama will return to work from his birthday gala remembering why he hates champagne, caviar and the excesses wealth brings.

    Posted by: WeHo | Aug 4, 2014 5:49:39 PM


  21. @Ascanius,

    You're presuming that for every active voter the economic self-interest takes priority over everything else.

    Posted by: Victor | Aug 4, 2014 6:19:47 PM


  22. Even if the Republicans take control of the Senate this year, they still won't be able to pass any of their agenda since Obama will still have veto power. And in 2016, the landscape is very favorable to the Democrats with a lot of vulnerable Republicans up for reelection. So I expect them to only have control for two years and not be able to cause too much trouble during that time

    Posted by: Ken | Aug 4, 2014 7:21:52 PM


  23. Republicans want to create prosperity and offer individuals grater freedoms, such as national concealed carry.

    POSTED BY: MUSCULAR | AUG 4, 2014 5:12:14 PM


    A question for Muscular: Why didn't they do that during Bush/Cheney?

    I'll answer that: Republicans want the wealthy to pay less taxes. Anything else is just pandering to special interests to get that.

    It is interesting to note that those who own eighty percent of assets don't want to pay the cost of protecting those assets. They feel that the burden of Homeland Security and Defense should be a middle class expense.

    Republican policies have drained the cash out of the middle class and that is why our economy falters. Under Obama the Federal Reserve has taken actions to increase the money supply to make up for the decrease in tax revenue from the rich and the cost of foreign wars. It will take until the middle of Hillary's first term, a total of ten years, to recover from the consequences of Republican "good intentions" during the Bush years.

    Posted by: james street james | Aug 5, 2014 8:21:40 AM


  24. I live in Arkansas. Pryor is doing a good job of holding on to his senate seat. The guy running against him, Tim Cotton, has voted to privatize medicare (Arkansas has the 3rd largest percentage of seniors in the US) he is against the public option, which a huge number of Arkansans are now using and liking, and Pryor has been pretty effective in painting Cotton as a lackey of the Koch Brothers. He spells it all out in the ads too. Showing times and dates of Cottons attendance at Koch events and then changing his positions to pro Koch ones. Arkansans hate out of state influence. This is a poor and backward place but the people here do not like big money from out of state buying elections. And Pryor has been doing an enormous amount of bible thumping too which always goes over well here. I think he is going to pull this one out in the end.

    Posted by: Liam | Aug 5, 2014 11:45:27 AM


  25. @james street james

    Exactly.

    Pretty much all of the other GOP "policies" is simply window dressing.

    And it's been that way pretty much for the entire history of the GOP (and that would include Abraham Lincoln).

    Posted by: Chitown kev | Aug 5, 2014 12:18:22 PM


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