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04/19/2007


Nate Silver Rates The Ubiquitous Presidential Polls

SilverPolls

The end of election season means that we have at least a year (468 different Congressional races are just around the corner!) before we're again inundated by an endless stream of polls, proclamation and other numerical electoral predications.

Taking advantage of this lull, master stastician Nate Silver has rated the most prominent polls cited during the 2012 election. Gallup, one of the most popular, appears to be the least accurate.

An excerpt of Silver's analysis:

Among the more prolific polling firms, the most accurate by this measure was TIPP, which conducted a national tracking poll for Investors’ Business Daily. Relative to other national polls, their results seemed to be Democratic-leaning at the time they were published. However, it turned out that most polling firms underestimated Mr. Obama’s performance, so those that had what had seemed to be Democratic-leaning results were often closest to the final outcome.

Conversely, polls that were Republican-leaning relative to the consensus did especially poorly.

Well at least the GOP exceled at something this election season: failing.


Hillary Clinton Crushes Biden, Cuomo in Early 2016 Democratic Presidential PPP Poll

Hillary

Since it's never too early to be thinking about the next election, Public Policy Polling surveyed Democrats in Florida and found that Hillary Clinton beats all others by a wide margin as the choice for President, Business Insider reports:

PollThe poll results, shared exclusively with Business Insider, find Clinton grabbing a clear majority — 61% of Florida Democrats pick her as the hypothetical 2016 Democratic nominee. Only 14% of Florida Democrats choose Biden. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo comes in third, earning 8% of the vote.

The poll shows that as two high-profile members of the current Obama administration, Clinton and Biden enjoy the most early name recognition. Clinton has an 82% favorability rating among Florida Democrats, while Biden's favorability rating sits at 74%. Cuomo is the only other candidate about whom the majority of Florida Democrats have an opinion.

Both Biden and Clinton have fanned the flames for 2016. Upon casting his vote in this week's election, Biden didn't rule out voting for himself again, leading to some speculation he's considering a run.

Clinton, meanwhile, has brushed aside any questions she might be planning to make a second bid after a 2008 Democratic primary loss to President Barack Obama.

Read the full poll results, AFTER THE JUMP...

Continue reading "Hillary Clinton Crushes Biden, Cuomo in Early 2016 Democratic Presidential PPP Poll" »


Illinois Catholic Bishop Warns Voting Democratic Supports 'Intrinsic Evil' Because of Abortion, Gay Marriage: VIDEO

Paprocki

Bishop Thomas John Paprocki of Springfield, Illinois isn't instructing you "for whom you should vote" but warns that voting Democratic is supporting "intrinsic evil" and putting your soul at risk, Right Wing Watch reports.

Says Paprocki in a video:

Certainly there are "pro-choice" Republicans who support abortion rights and "Log Cabin Republicans" who promote same-sex marriage, and they are equally as wrong as their Democratic counterparts. But these positions do not have the official support of their party.

Again, I am not telling you which party or which candidates to vote for or against, but I am saying that you need to think and pray very carefully about your vote, because a vote for a candidate who promotes actions or behaviors that are intrinsically evil and gravely sinful makes you morally complicit and places the eternal salvation of your own soul in serious jeopardy.

Watch, AFTER THE JUMP...

Continue reading "Illinois Catholic Bishop Warns Voting Democratic Supports 'Intrinsic Evil' Because of Abortion, Gay Marriage: VIDEO" »


Democrats Fire Back at Mitt Romney's 'Compassionate' Ad: VIDEO

Direct_romney

In response to Mitt Romney's first direct-to-camera ad in which he tries to portray himself as a compassionate conservative, the Democratic Rapid Response team put out this clip, spliced with responses to Mitt's claims from Mitt himself.

Watch, AFTER THE JUMP...

Continue reading "Democrats Fire Back at Mitt Romney's 'Compassionate' Ad: VIDEO" »


Bill Clinton Discusses His DNC Speech with Jon Stewart: VIDEO

Clinton_stewart

Jon Stewart praises Clinton's choice to use facts and numbers rather than ideology in his speech to the Democratic National Convention and asks Clinton if he knew he was "crushing it".

Watch, AFTER THE JUMP...

Continue reading "Bill Clinton Discusses His DNC Speech with Jon Stewart: VIDEO" »


DemRapidResponse On Values Voter Summit: VIDEO

PaulRyan

Paul Ryan, Rand Paul, Ollie North, Jim DeMint, Tony Perkins, Mike Huckabee, Steve King, Michele Bachmann, and Kirk Cameron all spoke yesterday at the Family Research Council's Values Voter Summit (where, if the VVS's twitterfeed has it right, someone named Star Parker just suggested President Barack Obama's popularity among young people might lead to something like Mao's Cultural Revolution). Rick Santorum shall be speaking presently. The VVS's talks haven't yet made it to the web; the blooper-reel's nowhere near compiled; and yet already the industrious Democrats at DemRapidResponse have addressed the summit with an ad.

Take a look AFTER THE JUMP ...

Continue reading "DemRapidResponse On Values Voter Summit: VIDEO" »


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