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Nate Silver Weighs In On the GOP's Increasingly Likely Chance of Taking Over the Senate - VIDEO

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Writing over at FiveThirtyEight this weekend, statistician Nate Silver points to the growing odds that the Republican Party will win a Senate majority this midterm election.  

He writes:

On Friday, I posed the question of whether the polls would have to be systematically wrong for Democrats to hold the Senate.

Technically speaking, we’re not quite there yet. If Democrats win Georgia and Alaska and North Carolina, and Orman wins Kansas and caucuses with them, they’d hold the Senate even if Republicans flipped Iowa, Colorado and the five other Democratic-held seats where GOP candidates have an advantage in the polls. But that’s quite a parlay to pull off.

Here’s one way to think about it. The FiveThirtyEight model accounts for the possibility that the polls could be systematically biased — in either direction. If I instead tell the model to assume the polls have no overall bias — even though they might be off in particular states — the Democrats’ chances of keeping the Senate would be just 17 percent. Democrats are becoming increasingly dependent on the possibility that the polls will prove to be “skewed.”

Silver's forecast currently puts the Republican chance of taking over the Senate at 73%

Silver also appeared on This Week with George Stephanopoulos earlier this morning to discuss his Senate and gubernatorial predictions. 

Watch, AFTER THE JUMP...

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Nate Silver: Most Women Like Hillary Clinton ‘Evolved’ On Gay Marriage Many Years Ago

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With Hillary Clinton’s position on gay marriage back in the news following a combative interview with NPR host Terry Gross last week on the possible ‘political’ motivations for evolving on the issue in March 2013, statistician Nate Silver has taken the opportunity to crunch the numbers on whether Clinton’s late-blooming evolution was typical of women in her demographic profile.

ClintonSilver, using individual-level voter data from three states that voted on gay marriage initiatives in 2008 (California, Arizona, and Florida) found that somewhere between 75 and 90 percent of women in Clinton’s demographic profile supported gay marriage in 2008 (Democratic, non-evangelical Protestant, top category for household income and education, older aged females).

Silver says questions surrounding whether Clinton’s residence is urban or suburban and whether she is more of a “liberal” or a “moderate” account for the range – 75 percent of moderate, suburban women like Clinton supported gay marriage in 2008, with 90 percent of liberal, urban women like Clinton doing the same.

Furthermore, Silver finds:

Silver dataThe majority of women with this profile supported gay marriage long ago. I estimate, for instance, that about 75 percent of liberal, urban, Democratic women who otherwise match Clinton’s demographic characteristics did so even in 1992. And support among moderate, suburban Democratic women like Clinton rose above 50 percent shortly after her husband took office in 1993. Those figures might seem high. But there were some people who supported gay marriage in the early 1990s — about 25 percent of the U.S. population, based on the trend from national opinion polls. These were just the sort of people likely to be among that 25 percent.

More on Silver’s findings HERE.

 


Nate Silver Weighs In on the Odds Michael Sam Will Be Drafted into the NFL this Year

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Statistician Nate Silver has crunched the numbers whether Michael Sam will be among the 256 men chosen in this year’s NFL draft.

His prediction on the chances for the openly gay former Missouri defensive end? About 50-50.  

Writes Silver:

2_combine_samSam, the 2013 SEC Co-Defensive Player of the Year, is rated as a sixth-round pick on the Scouts Inc. draft board, which is available through ESPN Insider. That might seem to imply that he’s likely to be drafted, because the NFL draft has seven rounds.

But players projected to be chosen late in the draft are hard to differentiate from one another. You can think of NFL prospects as representing the tail end of a bell curve. At the extreme end of the tail are a small number of potential franchise talents, such as Andrew Luck and Bo Jackson. The curve gets denser and denser with players the farther down the draft board you go, however. Players who are projected as sixth-round picks often fall out of the draft entirely.

I looked at what happened to projected sixth-round picks since 2005, as according to the Scouts Inc. draft board. Specifically, I looked at defensive ends and outside linebackers, the two positions that Sam might play in the NFL. (That some scouts regard Sam as a “tweener” is one reason he may not be drafted highly.)

There were 67 such players between 2005 and 2013. Of those, 37 players — 55 percent — were not drafted. Twenty-four others were drafted between the fifth and seventh rounds, while six were chosen in the fourth round or higher. Only about 10 percent were chosen in the sixth round exactly.

All in all, Silver says that although Sam’s chances of being drafted are only about 50-50, Silver would still take his side of the bet.

A player only needs one team to draft him. A player like Sam who generates polarized opinions might have a better chance of being chosen in a late round by a team like the New England Patriots or the Seattle Seahawks than one who everyone agrees is mediocre.


Thursday Speed Read: North Carolina, Nate Silver, Rosemary Lehmberg, Brunei, Ohio, Oklahoma

BY LISA KEEN / Keen News Service

TENTH CIRCUIT HEARS SECOND CASE:

OklahomaThe same three-judge panel that heard the lawsuit challenging Utah’s ban on recognition of same-sex marriages today hears a lawsuit challenging Oklahoma’s. Jim Campbell, legal counsel from the Alliance Defending Freedom, a conservative legal group that has been opposing same-sex marriage, will argue for Oklahoma. Don Holladay, counsel with Holladay & Chilton in Oklahoma City, will argue for the plaintiffs.  Argument begins at 1:30 MDT at the Denver federal courthouse. Each side will get 15 minutes. Audio recordings of the proceedings will be available on the court’s website within 24 hours of adjournment.

U.N. ADMONISHES BRUNEI STONING LAW:

BruneiThe United Nations’ Office of High Commissioner for Human Rights issued a statement April 11 admonishing the southeast Asian nation of Brunei for revising its penal code to require stoning to death any person convicted of sodomy and other sexually related offenses. The revised code goes into effect April 22. U.N. spokesman Rupert Colville said the revised code “may encourage further violence and discrimination against women and also against people on the basis of sexual orientation.”

OHIO JUDGE SPLITS THE STAY:

U.S. District Court Judge Timothy Black did as he said he might: He ordered the state of Ohio Wednesday to include the names of both same-sex parents on the birth certificates of children born and adopted to four same-sex couples in a lawsuit challenging the state’s ban on same-sex marriages. But he stayed his ruling that the state ban on recognizing marriages of same-sex couples is unconstitutional. The stay will remain pending review by the Sixth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals. The case, Henry v. Wymyslo, was led by civil rights attorney-activist Al Gerhardstein in Cincinnati.

DON’T MESS WITH ANYBODY IN TEXAS:

LehmbergTexas Republican Governor Rick Perry is into a big-time scrap with lesbian Travis County District Attorney Rosemary Lehmberg, a Democrat. Lehmberg, who’s gay, is the top prosecutorial officer for Travis County –the same county that runs the state’s Public Integrity Unit which is charged with investigating wrongdoing by state officials. She’s credited with convicting U.S. House Republican Majority Leader Tom DeLay in 2010 for money laundering (a case now on appeal to the state’s high court for criminal appeals). But Lehmberg ran into trouble last April when police found her drunk and behind the wheel of a car in a church parking lot. Lehmberg acknowledged guilt, apologized, spent three weeks in jail, and entered a treatment program. But she refused calls from Perry and other Republican leaders to resign. Perry then claimed Lehmberg had “lost the public’s confidence” and vetoed funding for her Public Integrity budget. Texans for Public Justice, a political watchdog group, charged that Perry is breaking the law by trying to coerce Lehmberg’s resignation. And this week, a Texas judge seated a grand jury to look into those allegations. Perry has reported hired a defense attorney.

THE SILVER FORECAST:

SilverOpenly gay political data cruncher Nate Silver yesterday echoed predictions that are being heard more and more frequently these days: Republicans appear poised to take over the Senate in the mid-term elections this November. Silver’s latest model “puts Democratic losses in the Senate at 6.8 seats….”

NORTH CAROLINA SOFTENS:

A poll this month in North Carolina indicates opposition to same-sex couples marrying has softened by eight points in the past two years. In May 2012, 61 percent of voters said yes to a ban on same-sex couples marrying. But a Public Policy Polling survey taken April 3-6 of 740 registered voters found only 53 percent still oppose same-sex marriage.

© 2014 Keen News Service. All rights reserved.


Nate Silver Ranks Anti-gay Marriage Donations in Silicon Valley

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Following the controversy surrounding Mozilla’s (now former) CEO Brendan Eich and his $1000 donation in support of California’s Proposition 8 back in 2008, statistician Nate Silver looked at just how rare such anti-gay donations are in Silicon Valley. 

Wrote Silver:

Silver-tech-prop-8-v3In total between these 11 [Silicon Valley-based Fortune 500] companies, 83 percent of employee donations were in opposition to Proposition 8. So Eich was in a 17 percent minority relative to the top companies in Silicon Valley.

However, there was quite a bit of variation from business to business. At Intel, 60 percent of employee donations were in support of Proposition 8. By contrast, at Apple, 94 percent of employee donations were made in opposition to Proposition 8. The opposition was even higher at Google, where 96 percent of employee donations were against it, including $100,000 from co-founder Sergey Brin.

There isn’t much data on Mozilla. Only four Proposition 8 donors listed it as their employer: Eich, who donated in support of the measure, and three others who opposed it. But it’s likely that employee sentiment at Mozilla is much like that at Google. The organizations share a lot in common; Google accounts for a large share of Mozilla’s revenue, and both are based in Mountain View, Calif. Mozilla has a reputation for progressivity, and almost all donations by its employees during the 2012 election cycle were to liberal or libertarian candidates and causes.

Silver notes, however, that these figures only reflect employees who were willing to donate publicly, for or against Proposition 8. 


Nate Silver Says GOP Has a 60 Percent Shot at Retaking the Senate: VIDEO

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Gay statistician Nate Silver, who successfully predicted all 50 states in the 2012 election, is now forecasting that the Republican Party has about a 60% chance at retaking the Senate in the 2014 midterms.

Screen Shot 2014-03-24 at 5.53.08 AM 1Silver, who recently launched his own “data journalism” site FiveThirtyEight, spoke with ABC’s Jon Karl about what the GOP’s path of least resistance will look like later this year.  

Even more alarming, Silver predicts the GOP has a 30% chance of "winning big," - up to 11 seats. Here's hoping the wins won't be of the Tea Party variety if this scenario plays out. 

Watch Silver crunch the numbers, AFTER THE JUMP

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