Nate Silver Hub




Nate Silver Looks at Hillary Clinton's Ratings, and 2016

Nate Silver takes a look at Hillary Clinton's chances in 2016 with regard to a moving average of Mrs. Clinton’s favorable and unfavorable ratings dating back to 1992. Silver notes that Clinton is popular now, but boosted by the fact that her role as Secretary of State is for the most part non-partisan, and that at the times when she has become an "explicitly political figure" her favorability has also taken a hit:

HillaryThe surge in Mrs. Clinton’s favorability ratings late in the 2008 campaign, although perhaps partly testifying to her steadily improving skills as a campaigner and to her new role as an underdog in the Democratic primary race, may also have reflected the fact that Republicans had less incentive to criticize her. Instead, they were trying to woo her supporters — or bolster her chances to prolong the Democratic nomination process.

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A secretary of state is not necessarily above partisan criticism, but attacking a secretary of state can potentially backfire on the opposition party. As Mitt Romney discovered during the presidential campaign foreign affairs can present an unlevel playing field to the opposition party. The White House and the Department of State have a number of defenses that they can employ to shield themselves from criticism, from claiming that they are protecting the national interest, to accusing their opponents of being unpatriotic, to arguing that their opponents lack knowledge of the situation on the ground. The secretary of state, like the president, also enjoys the symbolic trappings of incumbency when she conducts diplomatic affairs.

Were Mrs. Clinton to run for president again, she would lose most of these advantages. Republicans would begin to criticize her, delicately at first, and then more expressly as the election drew nearer.

Silver's Clinton chart, AFTER THE JUMP...

Continue reading "Nate Silver Looks at Hillary Clinton's Ratings, and 2016" »


Nate Silver And Conan O'Brien Talk Serious Jibber Jabber: VIDEO

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Conan O'Brien is more than just a funny face hosting a nighttime television show. He's also a person with a brain who likes to talk with other people who also have brains, which is why O'Brien hosts "serious jibber jabber" sessions with some of the world's most brain-having people.

The latest edition features Nate Silver, the gay statistician who has already called every election for the next 1,000 years. Yes, even the intergalactic races. (Kimara Cretak is a lock for Romulan Senator.) But don't worry, Silver still has plenty to talk about, like his new book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't.

Watch O'Brien and Silver's entire 49:54 minute conversation AFTER THE JUMP, because being a brainiac is sexy.

Continue reading "Nate Silver And Conan O'Brien Talk Serious Jibber Jabber: VIDEO" »


Obama Gives Shout-Out to Nate Silver at Turkey Pardon: VIDEO

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President Obama gave two turkeys a presidential pardon today. Cobbler and Gobbler will head to their future home at George Washington's Mount Vernon Estate. In his remarks, Obama gave a shout-out to NYT number-cruncher Nate Silver:

"For the first time in our history, the winners of the White House turkey pardon were chosen through a highly competitive online vote, and once again, Nate Silver completely nailed it. The guy's amazing. He predicted these guys would win."

Watch, AFTER THE JUMP...

Continue reading "Obama Gives Shout-Out to Nate Silver at Turkey Pardon: VIDEO" »


Nate Silver Talks About Being Gay

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From a profile in The Guardian:

It turns out that what he calls his "dorkiness" is actually the secret to his powers. "I've always felt like something of an outsider. I've always had friends, but I've always come from an outside point of view. I think that's important. If you grow up gay, or in a household that's agnostic, when most people are religious, then from the get-go, you are saying that there are things that the majority of society believes that I don't believe."


News: Nate Silver, Jeremy Renner, Marriage Money, Gaza

1NewsIcon Miami bar Tobacco road has been many things in its 100 years, including a gay bar.

Cookies-food-green-marijuana-weed-Favim.com-2217411NewsIcon With weed food possibly going mainstream in Colorado and Washington, CBS News takes a look at some cooks crafting foods that will make you smile.

1NewsIcon Some low ball estimates for immediate revenue Maryland, Maine and Washington could enjoy once same-sex marriages get up and running: "Wedding-related spending for in-state couples is projected be about $16 million in Maine, $63 million in Maryland and $89 million in Washington."

1NewsIcon On Dean Chambers' attacks on Nate Silver and his "voodoo statistics": "There was more than a touch of homophobia to the criticism (Silver is gay), not to mention an aversion to scientific rationalism that has come to characterize certain segments of the conservative right. (Gawker compared the attack to "something like a jock slapping a math book out of a kid’s hands and saying, 'NICE NUMBERS, FAG.'")"

1NewsIcon An Israeli airstrike on Gaza City killed eleven people today.

1NewsIcon Oh, Rupert Murdoch: "Why is the Jewish owned press so consistently anti-Israel in every crisis?"

Allenwest1NewsIcon Tea Party Rep. Allen West's supporters are losing their minds after election officials failed to meet a recount deadline, meaning that, as expected, Democratic rival Patrick Murphy will take West's seat in Washington, though not before more right wing protests, of course.

1NewsIcon Adam Roberts somehow got great chefs to share their best kept culinary secrets. Now he's passing them on to you. How delicious.

1NewsIcon "Because You're So Sweet"

1NewsIcon Just for the record, David Beckham is not leaving the LA Galaxy to play in Australia.

1NewsIcon Michael Fassbender rubbed up on co-star Ryan Gosling while shooting Terrence Malick's new film in Mexico.

1NewsIcon The happiest of birthdays to Rachel McAdams.

1NewsIcon Check out Fiona Apple's new track for This Is 40.

1NewsIcon Don't expect marriage equality in Pennsylvania, at least not without federal or SCOTUS intervention: "Gov. Tom Corbett and many in the Republican-controlled General Assembly oppose gay marriage, and state law barring it would have to be repealed or struck down by a court. Those on both sides of the issue say the commonwealth's political climate has not forced lawmakers to take a stand on the issue, which isn't viewed as a high priority."

Rennersnl1NewsIcon Jeremy Renner and the SNL cast had a ball sending-up The Avengers last night.

1NewsIcon The origin of Twitter-born words: "Jacob Eisenstein at the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta and colleagues examined 30 million tweets sent from US locations between December 2009 and May 2011... After collecting the data, the team built a mathematical model that captures the large-scale flow of new words between cities. The model revealed that cities with big African American populations tend to lead the way in linguistic innovation."

1NewsIcon Cynthia Deford, a lesbian mother in Washington state, has started a petition to ban teachers from campaigning for political causes in school after her daughter's teacher wore a button supporting a ban on gay marriage there.


Nate Silver, Sex Object

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Apparently a lot of people are very turned on by Nate Silver's talent with numbers.

Seductive Nate Silver has hit the meme factory.

And in the New Yorker, Paul Rudnick pens a hilarious letter from Silver's "No. 1 fan", 11-year-old Emma Gertlowitz:

See, I think that because you predicted the election with near-100% accuracy Matt Bomer is way more likely to go out with you than with Dick Morris, who predicted a Romney landslide, or with Karl Rove, who kept predicting that Ohio was still in play a week after the election was over. In fact, right now I bet that you could get anyone to go out with you just by saying something like “I predicted Florida, North Carolina, and Illinois, and now I’m predicting that you’ll have dinner with me.” I know that you can also predict the careers of baseball players and that you made a ton of money playing online poker, all of which makes you really cool because you can gamble and do sports without leaving your room; you’re like James Bond in saggy sweatpants whose pockets are filled with wadded-up Kleenex.

I know that you’re too old for me and that if we actually met you’d probably be really nice and say something like “I predict that someday you’ll meet a boy who’s 100% right for you,” and then I would tell you my secret, that I was totally crushing on this geeky anorexic goth boy but he turned out to be Ann Coulter. So maybe I should just keep fantasizing about you, because statisticians are the new sexy vampires, only even more pasty. I just hope that tonight I can dream that the next time you’re on “Rachel Maddow” you’ll look right into the camera and say, “I can predict that Hillary will win Nevada in 2016, and that Emma Gertlowitz will at least get wait-listed for Brown.”


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