Poll: 61 Percent of Californians Approve of Marriage Equality

A new poll of California voters has been released and shows more support for marriage equality than ever, the AP reports:

The Field Poll found 78 percent support among people 39 and younger and a solid majority of middle-aged residents now back gay marriage — 56 percent. Even among senior citizens there is 48 percent support, compared with 42 percent against.

The overall results represent a reversal in views about the issue in the 36 years the Field Poll has been taking surveys on gay marriage. In 1977, when the first survey was conducted, only 28 percent approved of gay marriage, while 59 percent were opposed.

The poll of 834 registered California voters was conducted Feb. 5-17. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Poll: 59 Percent of Americans Oppose DOMA

A new poll commissioned by the Center for American Progress and Gay & Lesbian Advocates & Defenders and conducted by the Goodwin Simon Strategic Research and Voter Consumer Research examines views about DOMA, suggesting that its repeal is far overdue.

What they found:

First, mirroring other recent national polls, we see that a majority (52%) of registered voters favor allowing same-sex couples to legally marry.

Nearly six in ten (59%) registered voters oppose Section 3 of DOMA, which requires the federal government to treat legally married same-sex couples as unmarried for the purposes of federal benefits and protections. Just one-third (34%) favor this part of DOMA, while six percent are unsure.

Notably, some voters who oppose marriage for same-sex couples nonetheless believe that if same-sex couples are allowed to legally marry in their state, then the federal government should recognize those legal marriages. These voters reject the section of DOMA that prohibits federal recognition of marriage for same-sex couples. Therefore, while 52 percent of respondents favor marriage for same-sex couples, a larger 59 percent oppose DOMA’s requirement that the federal government treat them as unmarried.

Shedding insight into these findings is that 62 percent of respondents agree that “it is discrimination for the federal government to deny marriage protections and benefits to legally married same-sex couples.” Just 34 percent disagree with this statement, while four percent are unsure.

The Washington Blade's Chris Johnson spoke with GLAD's Mary Bonauto:

“With each passing day, more and more Americans are learning how DOMA denies important marital protections and heaps disrespect on married same-sex couples across the country – and they’re saying, ‘Enough is enough,’ Bonauto said. “It’s not surprising that a majority of this country now believes that loving, committed couples in legal marriages should be treated fairly under federal law. It’s time for our laws to catch up with where public opinion is on abolishing DOMA.”

(graphic via CAP)

Gay Boy Scout Brothers Call for End of Ban as New Poll Shows 55 Percent of the Public Wants That Too: VIDEO

The BBC profiles Lucien and Pascal Tessier, two gay brothers who are also Boy Scouts.

Said Lucien in an interview from their home in Kensington, Maryland: "I think that by proposing this sort of policy where local troops decide for themselves whether to admit gay scouts or not, they're not living up to their responsibility to accept everyone."

Watch the full interview with the brothers, AFTER THE JUMP...

A new Quinnipiac poll shows that the public wants the Boy Scouts to drop its gay ban by a margin of 55 to 33 percent, Reuters reports:

A broad array of respondents, male or female, Catholic or Protestant, favored accepting scouts regardless of their sexual orientation, the poll showed. However, white evangelical Protestants opposed gay scouts by a margin of 56 percent to 33 percent.

"Now that the Armed Forces ban on openly gay service members has been lifted, and polls show increasing acceptance of same-sex marriage, most American voters think it's time to open up the Boy Scouts too," Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, said in a news release.

The poll numbers were released yesterday to coincide with a planned vote by the Boy Scouts on the gay ban. However, that vote was postponed until May, with the BSA saying that "due to the complexity of this issue, the organization needs time for a more deliberate review of its membership policy."

Women supported gay scouts by 61 percent to 27 percent, compared to 49 percent to 39 percent among men, the poll showed. Support for gay scouts among white Catholics was 63 percent to 25 percent, among white Protestants it was 44 percent to 41 percent.

Watch the interview with the Tessier brothers, AFTER THE JUMP...

Find out how to convey how you feel to the Boy Scouts here.

WaPo-ABC News Poll Shows Substantial Age Gap on Gay Marriage, Marijuana, and Immigration

A Washingon Post/ABC News Poll offers a revealing look at the generational shift taking place today on same-sex marriage, the legalization of marijuana, and immigration.

The WaPo takes a closer look at the numbers:

Picking apart support within sub-groups in the polls reveals the ranging dynamics at play. Women are 18 percentage points more supportive of gay marriage than men (59 to 41 percent), but men are seven points more apt to support legalizing marijuana. And racial diversity explains much of the generational gap on immigration: Support for a “path to citizenship” is at 52 percent among whites under age 50 and 49 percent among those who are older. But two-thirds of both older and younger non-whites support a route to citizenship.

A bare 51 percent majority of African Americans oppose gay marriage while a similarly slim 54 percent support marijuana. Hispanics tilt the other way with 53 percent in support of gay marriage and a much wider 65 percent in opposition to marijuana.

They add: "This poll was conducted Nov. 7 to 11 among a random national sample of 1,023 adults, using conventional and cellular phones. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Error margins are larger for subgroups."

Hillary Clinton Crushes Biden, Cuomo in Early 2016 Democratic Presidential PPP Poll

Since it's never too early to be thinking about the next election, Public Policy Polling surveyed Democrats in Florida and found that Hillary Clinton beats all others by a wide margin as the choice for President, Business Insider reports:

The poll results, shared exclusively with Business Insider, find Clinton grabbing a clear majority — 61% of Florida Democrats pick her as the hypothetical 2016 Democratic nominee. Only 14% of Florida Democrats choose Biden. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo comes in third, earning 8% of the vote.

The poll shows that as two high-profile members of the current Obama administration, Clinton and Biden enjoy the most early name recognition. Clinton has an 82% favorability rating among Florida Democrats, while Biden's favorability rating sits at 74%. Cuomo is the only other candidate about whom the majority of Florida Democrats have an opinion.

Both Biden and Clinton have fanned the flames for 2016. Upon casting his vote in this week's election, Biden didn't rule out voting for himself again, leading to some speculation he's considering a run.

Clinton, meanwhile, has brushed aside any questions she might be planning to make a second bid after a 2008 Democratic primary loss to President Barack Obama.

Read the full poll results, AFTER THE JUMP...

Ohio Tightens in New Poll

The race for the all-important Buckeye State is getting closer with just 3 percent undecided, according to a new poll:

Mr. Obama has a 5-point advantage over his opponent among likely voters, with 50 percent to 45 percent for Mr. Romney. Last month, in the Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News poll of Ohio, Mr. Obama led by 10 points.

In the current survey, only 3 percent remain undecided and 95 percent of those with a preference said their mind was made up. Of those who had already voted, 54 percent said they cast their ballot for Mr. Obama and 39 percent said they voted for Mr. Romney.

The poll was conducted Wednesday through Saturday night, after the second presidential debate held on Tuesday at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y. Almost half (48 percent) said Mr. Obama won last week’s debate, 27 percent said Mr. Romney was better and 12 percent considered it a draw.

Nate Silver took a look at Ohio on Saturday:

The best number of the day for Mr. Romney was almost certainly the Public Policy Polling survey of Ohio, which had him down by one point there — improved from a five-point deficit in a poll they conducted there last week.

If this had been the only poll of the day in Ohio, Mr. Romney would probably have made an Electoral College gain on that basis, since the forecast is very sensitive to anything in Ohio. There was another Ohio poll, however, from Gravis Marketing, which showed a tied race. Isn’t that an even better result for Mr. Romney?

Not in this case, because Gravis Marketing polls have had a Republican lean of two or three percentage points this cycle. (Their prior poll of Ohio had shown Mr. Romney up by about one point.)

The FiveThirtyEight model adjusts for these “house effects” and so treats the Gravis Marketing poll as equivalent to showing a two- or three-point lead for Mr. Obama.

It also adjusts the Public Policy Polling survey of Ohio slightly downward for Mr. Obama — but Public Policy Polling has lost most of the strong Democratic lean that it had earlier in the cycle, and it has even been on Mr. Romney’s side of the consensus in a few states like Iowa and New Hampshire. We now calculate their house effect as being only about half a percentage point in favor of Mr. Obama.

More from Nate at FiveThirtyEight...