Polls Hub




Nationwide Support for Marriage Equality Hits All-Time High of 59 Percent in New Poll

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A new poll shows support for marriage equality nationwide has hit an all-time high, the Washington Post reports:

Half of all Americans believe that gay men and lesbians have a constitutional right to marry, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll in which a large majority also said businesses should not be able to deny serving gays for religious reasons.

Fifty percent say the U.S. Constitution's guarantee of equal protection gives gays the right to marry, while 41 percent say it does not.

Beyond the constitutional questions, a record-high 59 percent say they support same-sex marriage, while 34 percent are opposed, the widest margin tracked in Post-ABC polling.

The poll was conducted in the wake of a series of rulings by federal judges that state bans on same-sex marriage and prohibitions on recognizing marriages performed elsewhere are unconstitutional.

The poll also shows that by Americans oppose bills like the one in Arizona that would allow discrimination against gays based on religious beliefs. And their is strong support for gay adoption.

More here.


Support for Marriage Equality in Ohio Hits 50 Percent: Poll

OhioMuch has changed since Ohioans passed a 2004 ban on same-sex marriage, the WaPo reports:

When Ohioans passed the ban a decade ago, they did so by a wide margin. It passed with 62 percent support and majorities in all but one of the state’s 88 counties. But in the Monday poll from Quinnipiac University, support for same-sex marriage there hit 50 percent for the first time, compared with similarly worded questions over the past few years. Support for same-sex marriage now leads by wide margins among Democrats, Independents and women. Men narrowly oppose it, as the chart below shows, while Republicans and seniors oppose it by similarly wide margins.

Ohio


Poll: Majority of Voters in States Without Same-Sex Marriage Now Support Marriage Equality

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A new poll out by the Freedom to Marry reveals that 51% of registered voters in states without marriage equality now favor allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry legally, with only 41% opposed.

Buzzfeed breaks down the poll’s findings:

The survey, conducted Dec. 2–8, 2013, by Anzalone Liszt Grove Research for Freedom to Marry, broke down support into regions, with Indiana, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, and Wisconsin respondents — the central region — favoring marriage equality by a 23-point margin (59% favor, 36% oppose). Respondents in the western region — Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New Mexico, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, and Wyoming — favored marriage by a 19-point margin (53% favor, 34% oppose). In the South, which included Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and West Virginia, respondents were split evenly (46% favor, 46% oppose).

Additionally, 56% of respondents believe that it is likely that same-sex marriage will become legal in their state in the next couple of years.

Said Evan Wolfson, president of Freedom to Marry:

“That [poll] shows the momentum. We have majority support in the non-marriage states, in the states that still discriminate. And this is the first poll to show that. It’s conveying to the court and to the next wave of decision makers that America is ready.”


New Study Finds Polls May Underestimate Anti-Gay Attitudes, Size of LGBT Population

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A new study by a team of researchers from Ohio State and Boston Universities found that conventional public opinion surveys tend to underestimate the number of individuals who hold anti-gay views while also under-reporting the proportion of LGBT individuals in the general population. Pew Research Center details the report's findings:

LGBT Survey[The researchers] used a novel research method that, in addition to the usual privacy and anonymity afforded by the best practice survey techniques, goes further and makes it virtually impossible to connect individual respondents with their answers to sensitive questions. They call this technique the "Veiled Report" method.

Then they compared their findings with the results obtained as part of the "Veiled Report" experiment with responses from a control group that answered questions posed in a more conventional way. Their goal was to see how social desirability bias- the tendency for people to not reveal behaviors or attitudes that they fear may be viewed as outside the mainstream - may affect reporting on these sensitive topics. 

In the results using the experimental technique, self-reports of non-heterosexual identity amounted to 19% of those surveyed using the Veiled Report methods - 65% higher than the 11% in the control group. The share reporting same-sex experiences also grew from 17% in the control group to 27% in the Veiled Report group, they reported. (Because their experiment did not use a random sample of the adult population, the researchers do not attempt to estimate the actual size of the country's gay and lesbian population.)

The experimental method also increased the rates of anti-gay sentiment. For example, the share who disapproved of having an openly gay manager at work increased from 16% in the control group to 27% in the Veiled Report group. The proportion who thought it should be legal to discriminate when hiring on the basis of sexual orientation also rose form 14% to 25%.

To read the full report, click HERE.


Hillary Clinton Feels The Love, Crushes Christie And Cruz In New VA Poll

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Although no major candidates have confirmed a 2016 run for President, speculation has been brewing around several possibilities. Chief among them are former senator-turned-candidate-turned-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Chris Christie, the governor of New Jersey who spoke out harshly against this summer's SCOTUS rulings, and Ted Cruz, a Texas senator who fears gay marriage will infringe on religious liberty. While the possibilities remain endless for now, a new poll out of Virginia indicates that early numbers for LGBT-supporter Clinton are on the rise.

Reveals a new Quinnipiac poll

Looking ahead to the 2016 presidential campaign, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton continues to be the apple of Virginia voters' eyes, leading New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie 46 - 37 percent, compared to 45 - 40 percent when Quinnipiac University asked that question in July. Christie continues to lead Vice President Joseph Biden, 44 - 37 percent today compared to 46 - 38 percent last month. Clinton crushes Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas 53 - 34 percent. Biden tops Cruz 47 - 37 percent. Virginia voters give President Barack Obama a split 48 - 48 percent job approval rating, compared to a negative 46 - 51 percent score last month.

Will Clinton announce her presidential campaign in the coming months, or will Virginia voters be sorely disappointed? Early speculation can be futile, but it is hard to argue with numbers like these. If she runs Clinton could see the Virginia blue streak continue. 

Images via Quinnipiac press release.


Discredited Anti-Gay Researcher Mark Regnerus Claims Marriage Equality Polls Are Biased

RegnerusIf you happen to be a gay parent or Towleroad reader, you may remember Mark Regnerus, the anti-gay social scientist (and my former professor no less) who published a "flawed, misleading, and scientifically unsound" study of gay parenting last year that was widely circulated among 'pro-family' groups.

Now, Regnerus (pictured) has set his discredited sights on same-sex marriage. In an article published Tuesday for the National Review Online, Regnerus made three arguments to support his claim that the apparent growth in the public's support for marriage equality is being inaccurately inflated by flawed methodologies of pollsters:

1. Question "priming"-

"Gallup continues to ask a question about the legality of 'homosexual relations' before it asks about same-sex marriage, a technique known as 'priming'....priming shapes respondents' answers to subsequent questions, particularly where sentiments about a previous question spill over. Gallup asks whether respondents 'think gay or lesbian relations between consenting adults should or should not be legal,' a question that most observers would assume is not even asked any more."

2. The "Bradley" effect-

"In 2010 Patrick Egan, assistant professor of politics and public policy at New York University, compiled ten years of polling data about same-sex marriage in states that had voted on same-sex-marriage ballot initiatives. He found that public-opinion consistently underestimated ballot-box opposition to SSM....[When] sensitive issues are at stake, people may feel pressure to give pollsters answers that sound enlightened, politically correct, or free of any trace of 'bigotry' - a term that has reemerged as a club in the debate over same-sex marriage."

3. Question wording-

"Other suspects are the words with which survey questions are constructed. When polling organizations include the term 'rights' in their question - as do Gallup, USA Today, and CNN/ORC - support for same-sex marriage is elevated: Each found 54 to 55 percent in favor. Survey respondents appear to react positively to words like 'rights,' 'freedom,' and 'benefits,' and negatively to words like 'ban.' 

Carlos Maza over at Equality Matters has a great breakdown of each of Regnerus's points, none of which stand up to serious scrutiny. Considering his last major publication on gay issues was deemed 'bullsh*t,' Regnerus may want to tweak his own research methodology before he starts criticizing others'. 


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