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Nate Silver Weighs In On the GOP's Increasingly Likely Chance of Taking Over the Senate - VIDEO

Silver

Writing over at FiveThirtyEight this weekend, statistician Nate Silver points to the growing odds that the Republican Party will win a Senate majority this midterm election.  

He writes:

On Friday, I posed the question of whether the polls would have to be systematically wrong for Democrats to hold the Senate.

Technically speaking, we’re not quite there yet. If Democrats win Georgia and Alaska and North Carolina, and Orman wins Kansas and caucuses with them, they’d hold the Senate even if Republicans flipped Iowa, Colorado and the five other Democratic-held seats where GOP candidates have an advantage in the polls. But that’s quite a parlay to pull off.

Here’s one way to think about it. The FiveThirtyEight model accounts for the possibility that the polls could be systematically biased — in either direction. If I instead tell the model to assume the polls have no overall bias — even though they might be off in particular states — the Democrats’ chances of keeping the Senate would be just 17 percent. Democrats are becoming increasingly dependent on the possibility that the polls will prove to be “skewed.”

Silver's forecast currently puts the Republican chance of taking over the Senate at 73%

Silver also appeared on This Week with George Stephanopoulos earlier this morning to discuss his Senate and gubernatorial predictions. 

Watch, AFTER THE JUMP...

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Conservative GOP Candidates Running Grindr Banner Ads

Grindr_adGOP frontrunner Tom Cotton (R) is running a tight race with Mark Pryor (D)  for one of Arkansas’s senatorial seats. Recent polls out of the University of Arkansas have Cotton leading Pryor by a margin of 49-36%. His lead is due in no small part to a recent endorsement from the NRA and maybe (just maybe) the set of ads the pro-gun organization ran for him on Grindr.

According to The Daily Beast, the NRA paid for a batch of banner ads featuring Cotton that popped up on the popular gay networking app. While Grindr is no stranger to featuring advertisements for a wide range of social causes, the platform has a policy against running political advertising provided by third-party networks.

“While we do have safeguards in place to monitor for ads on third-party networks, we do serve billions of ads on our network, so there is the occasional chance that ads like this may appear,” a Grindr representative explained to The Daily Beast. “In this instance, we’ve reached out to the third-party networks to have these ads removed.”

As word about the ads spread across the internet, the firm purportedly responsible for placing them and Grindr CEO Joel Simkhai denied any involvement or knowledge of the curious endorsement.

“We have no knowledge of the ad mentioned,” Simkhai told Buzzfeed. “We do not welcome the NRA to advertise with us.”

In related news, LGBT ally Zach Wahls was tipped by a friend this week that Iowa GOP Senate hopeful Joni Ernst was also running ads on the gay app. 


Full Frontal Freedom Encourages LGBT People To V**E Next Week - VIDEO

Full Frontal Freedom - I Love To Vote

Full Frontal Freedom, a coalition of independent artists aiming to encourage civic participation, has just dropped a video encouraging LGBT people to vote in next week's mid-term elections.

Definitely *not* NSFW, watch the video, AFTER THE JUMP...

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Rick Santorum: Young People Support LGBT Rights Because the Gay Community Has 'Silenced the Church' - VIDEO

Santorum

Former senator and likely presidential candidate Rick Santorum has said the only reason young people support gay rights is because they have never heard any arguments to the contrary, reports Right Wing Watch.

Speaking yesterday during an interview with Tony Perkins, president of listed hate group Family Research Council, Santorum said that the anti-gay lobby is losing in the battle for LGBT rights because “[LGBT activists] have effectively silenced the church on a lot of those issues and young people don’t even know what the opposing view is on these issues.”

PerkinsOn the issue of pastors in Houston suing the city for rejecting their petitions to repeal a non-discrimination ordinance, Santorum said:

“I really believe in this subject matter at hand with the gay community that a Judeo-Christian worldview cannot survive with a worldview that is as rabidly secular as this movement is.

“One is going to battle the other and I can tell you that the statists, these secular statists, do not want the competition that comes from the church and so they are going to do everything they can to marginalize them, to force them out of the public square to be quiet.

“They’re going to use, as they have, the Johnson amendment, try to use the IRS and the tax code to do so, they’re going to use every lever of power the government has to keep this competition of ideas silent so they can win the argument.”

Listen to the interview, AFTER THE JUMP...

Last year, Santorum claimed that same-sex marriage would "discourage" straight couples from marrying.

Continue reading "Rick Santorum: Young People Support LGBT Rights Because the Gay Community Has 'Silenced the Church' - VIDEO" »


Gordon Klingenschmitt Warns Gay People 'Want You to Disobey God So You Go to Hell With Them' - VIDEO

Gordon Klingenschmitt

Colorado Republican state house candidate and homophobic wingnut Gordon Klingenschmitt said on his “Pray In Jesus Name” show yesterday that LGBT activists in Kentucky are forcing Christians to violate God’s law and end up in hell, reports Right Wing Watch.

His latest outburst comes following a situation in Kentucky in which a t-shirt printing business was found to have violated the city's non discrimination ordinance (NDO) by refusing to print t-shirts for a local gay organization.

Insisting that NDOs are a violation of the First Amendment, Klingenschmitt said that gay rights activists are driven by a demonic spirit (not t-shirts) that seeks to force Christians to "disobey God" so that they will wind up in Hell:

"They want your soul. They won't be satisfied with your money. They don't really want the t-shirts. They want your soul. They want you to disobey God so that you go to Hell with them. It's not enough that they go to Hell for disobeying God, they want you to disobey God so that we all go to Hell. That's the Devil's goal in the end.”

Watch Klingenschmitt’s ridiculous outburst, AFTER THE JUMP...

In recent months Klingenschmitt has claimed that same-sex marriage will allow for the “recruitment” of children, that the New York State Division of Human Rights is forcing Christians to “worship sodomy” and that transgender people shouldn’t be allowed into churches or public restrooms.

Continue reading "Gordon Klingenschmitt Warns Gay People 'Want You to Disobey God So You Go to Hell With Them' - VIDEO" »


Mike Huckabee Is 'Utterly Disgusted' With Republicans, Calls on GOP to 'Grow a Spine' And Oppose Gay Marriage: VIDEO

Huckabee4

He's not letting the GOP's tepid response to the SCOTUS gay marriage decision go just yet.

Said Huckabee on his Fox News program Saturday:

"I'm utterly disgusted with fellow Republicans who want to walk away from the issue of judicial supremacy just because it's politically volatile. Here's my advice - grow a spine! Show a modicum of knowledge about the way we govern ourselves. And lead, follow, or get the heck out of the way."

The cry of "judicial supremacy," coming from the same guy who said it was a "good day for freedom" when the Supreme Court gave corporations more religious freedom than taxpayers

Watch Huckabee's rant, AFTER THE JUMP...

[via Media Matters for America]

Continue reading "Mike Huckabee Is 'Utterly Disgusted' With Republicans, Calls on GOP to 'Grow a Spine' And Oppose Gay Marriage: VIDEO" »


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