10/07/2008
Shift By Young Voters Gives Gay Marriage Ban an Edge in California
A new CBS poll by SurveyUSA has opponents of Proposition 8, the measure that would ban same-sex marriage in the state, understandably concerned:
"According to the poll, likely California voters overall now favor passage of Proposition 8 by a five-point margin, 47 percent to 42 percent. Ironically, a CBS 5 poll eleven days prior found a five-point margin in favor of the measure's opponents. The only demographic group to significantly change their views during this period were younger voters — considered the hardest to poll and the most unpredictable voters — who now support the measure after previously opposing it. It should be noted that the poll, conducted statewide Oct. 4 and 5 among 670 likely voters, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percent, and the pollster continued to label the race too close to call — just as it did eleven days ago."
As I mentioned last week, supporters of the anti-gay measure recently began hitting airwaves with an ad featuring San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom celebrating the Supreme Court decision that legalized same-sex marriage in the state.
Watch it again, AFTER THE JUMP...
No on Prop 8 [official site]
Posted 9:39 AM EST by Andy Towle in California, Gay Marriage, News | Permalink
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Well, the problem is that the "marriage canard" is the last socially acceptable way to bash gay people - and those bigots are pulling out the stops to keep it. The Pro-8 ad is the most ridiculous political ad in a long time - what is more ridiculous is apparently it is working. Personally it makes my blood boil to think we have to submit to a referendum to retain basic rights. On a positive note, polls lately have been all over the map... and historically the "Yes" side needs to be ahead more than a few percent - people tend to vote "No" if they aren't sure about something...
Posted by: Mike | Oct 7, 2008 9:57:57 AM
I think maybe a half million should be spent to place ads on tv shows the 18-30 category would typically watch.
Or maybe air some ads that respond to young voters.
Posted by: matt from california | Oct 7, 2008 10:05:50 AM
Every str8 21 year old male is thinking to himself: "Will voting No make me look gay?"
Posted by: anon | Oct 7, 2008 10:10:34 AM
The pull quote is somehow backwards. "Favor of Proposition 8" means *against* gay marriage. Either the headline doesn't match the quote or something was lost in translation, or I'm still sleepy :).
- a Gay Californian (who doesn't want to get married but has come to resent the opposition)
Posted by: Terry Miller | Oct 7, 2008 10:20:27 AM
When a single poll's results contradict the results of many similar polls, you have to question the validity of the poll.
Just sayin.
Posted by: The Milkman | Oct 7, 2008 10:20:30 AM
They showed the second no on 8 yesterday on heroes. I actually think the timeslots they're picking are pretty good, but I think a lot of people watch online or use a DVR, so TV advertising, especially with younger people, is probably becoming less and less effective.
Posted by: Zeeshan | Oct 7, 2008 10:36:27 AM
Obama is against gay marriages and equal rights for gays, so why would anyone think all of his young worshippers wouldn't follow suit?
Posted by: Carl | Oct 7, 2008 10:48:30 AM
The Queen is trying to put doubt in people's minds who would donate. Obviously, as you can see in the above comments, no on prop 8 ads are airing.
Posted by: ANON | Oct 7, 2008 10:56:41 AM
Carl Repug Shill, Obama is for far more "rights" for gays than McShame who basically only supports queens with TexASS taste who do his wife's bottle blond big hair.
As for the poll, HOW CAN THIS BE when the Ellen Trolls have been assuring us that her cost-free example has led us out of the desert? Don't these kids read her blog?
WHERE THE FUCK ARE ELLEN'S MILLIONS??? Now I remember—fighting for cows and chickens.
WHERE THE FUCK ARE ROSIE'S MILLIONS??? Now I remember—she's too busy trying to make more millions with another TV show.
WHERE THE FUCK ARE ELTON'S MILLIONS??? Now I remember—huge fresh flower displays everyday for all his homes and his jumbo jack off birthday parties cost too much.
WHERE'S GREG "BROTHERS & SISTERS" BERLANTI'S MILLIONS???
WHERE'S MELISSA'S DONATION???
WHERE'S SAINT GUS "GOT MILK" VAN SANT'S DONATION???
SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME
SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME
SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME
SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME
SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME
SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME
Posted by: Leland Frances | Oct 7, 2008 11:07:47 AM
Carl Repug Shill, Obama is for far more "rights" for gays than McShame who basically only supports queens with TexASS taste who do his wife's bottle blond big hair.
As for the poll, HOW CAN THIS BE when the Ellen Trolls have been assuring us that her cost-free example has led us out of the desert? Don't these kids read her blog?
WHERE THE FUCK ARE ELLEN'S MILLIONS??? Now I remember—fighting for cows and chickens.
WHERE THE FUCK ARE ROSIE'S MILLIONS??? Now I remember—she's too busy trying to make more millions with another TV show.
WHERE THE FUCK ARE ELTON'S MILLIONS??? Now I remember—huge fresh flower displays everyday for all his homes and his jumbo jack off birthday parties cost too much.
WHERE'S GREG "BROTHERS & SISTERS" BERLANTI'S MILLIONS???
WHERE'S MELISSA'S DONATION???
WHERE'S SAINT GUS "GOT MILK" VAN SANT'S DONATION???
SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME
SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME
SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME
SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME
SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME
SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME SHAME
Posted by: Leland Frances | Oct 7, 2008 11:07:59 AM
ANDY...as I suggested yesterday, THE QUEEN is merely a Republican troll, probably a 'straight' guy in the south...I would consider your blog greatly improved if THE QUEEN's comments were removed as soon as they were posted...eventually, it will realize it's opinions are not being heard here and THE QUEEN will move on to another blog.
Posted by: peterparker | Oct 7, 2008 11:32:26 AM
Oh that's a solution -- remove comments you disagree with. Nice.
Posted by: Dan | Oct 7, 2008 11:42:33 AM
This is the disturbing--as is the news that the Yes on 8 crowd suddenly reports having double the amount of money they had two weeks ago.
This underscores the need for people to take their own actions and create their own personal communications to fight the initiative. OK to send the money to Equality California and let them do the big ad buys (please send more!), but we can't expect one organization to do all the talking and create all the messages when: 1) many of our personal stories are much more compelling and make the issue much less abstract; and 2) the hateful Yes on 8 garbage is being spewed from a lot of sources--hundreds of different pulpits from different denominations, for example. If this issue is important to you, tell your own story, express your own opinion, make your own phone call, print your own yard sign. The opportunity to contribute to defeating Prop 8 goes beyond writing checks (even as more of that activity is needed as well).
Posted by: Gianpiero | Oct 7, 2008 12:16:18 PM
if the queen would raise her booze-sodden head from that pile of drool and god knows what else she's spewed into the pillow and look at the TV she might see that the anti-8 advertisements have been hitting the airwaves at about 3 to 1 vs. the pro-8 ads.
Posted by: alguien | Oct 7, 2008 12:22:25 PM
and another thing: leland, how are you so certain that none of those individuals you screamed about in your shame shame shame post has contributed nothing to the cause? because it wasn't publicized? are you on such intimate terms with these people that you know where their donation dollars are going?
it's one thing to accuse all of 'em of not helping but you're gonna need some hard data to back up your allegations. otherwise it's naught but conjecture.
Posted by: alguien | Oct 7, 2008 12:24:58 PM
Oh, fucking please, Alguien. Get a clue! "IN LA" magazine printed the results two weeks ago of a search of state donation records for those names [and others]. Zero. Zip. Zilch.
And there latest article last week reported no change [though gay David Bohnett has given another $500,000 to bring his total so far to $1.1 million!].
And don't waste your breath on limp dick comeback such as "maybe they gave anonymously" [legally, they can't] "or in someone else's name/organization name." Were the latter the case, it would be almost as bad as not giving at all because they're smart enough to know that there's more bang for the buck by publicizing donations in order to encourage others to give.
Ellen and Portia were happy to throw open their huge Bel Air mansion two weeks ago for a million dollar fundraiser to support CA Prop 4 which would give chickens and cows more leg room. She was all over "Extra" and similar mindless pop shows talking about it. WHEN is her fundraiser to defeat Prop 8? Is it going to take a proposition to allow gay puppies to marry to get her off her rich ass?
Posted by: Leland Frances | Oct 7, 2008 12:47:49 PM
Donations are a matter of public record. 28 days to election day and so many wealthy gay celebrities, including Ellen DeGeneres, haven't ponied up. Very discourageing!
Posted by: JJ | Oct 7, 2008 12:49:19 PM
@DAN...yes, it is a solution when the poster has consistently shown in every post that they are nothing more than a Republican troll attempting to persuade towleroad readers to vote against themselves. There are a couple of regular towleroad posters who I disagree with vehemently on almost every issue (RB comes to mind most immediately), but I have never suggested removing their comments because I believe them to be acting in good faith with their comments. THE QUEEN, on the other hand, consistently posts manipulative comments advocating anti-gay politicians and anti-gay positions. OFF WITH HER HEAD!
Posted by: peterparker | Oct 7, 2008 1:35:08 PM
This is because, AS I'VE BEEN SAYING FOR WEEKS, both the No on 8 and EQ California ads look like they were designed by 1st year marketing students. The messages are convoluted (the EQ spots are an absolute train wreck) and targeted to the wrong demographic.
These campaigns are like the City of West Hollywood. The worst, most pointless garbage one could expect from the worst, most ego and academic based work that a bunch of gays and lesbians can produce.
These two groups have squandered millions of dollars to put these spots into heavy rotation throughout the state and are producing nothing to inform the voters of why it should be important to them that somebody else is going to lose their rights of equality.
Posted by: David B. | Oct 7, 2008 1:41:44 PM
The reason people are seeing more Yes on 8 ads than No on 8 ads is that the supporters of the amendment are outraising us by millions of dollars. We need a huge infusion of cash if we are going to defeat this thing. This is the biggest battle of our lifetimes and a loss will set us back decades in fighting for equality across the nation. Please, I know times are tough, but no matter where you live or who you are, please go to www.noonprop8.com and give whatever you can.
Posted by: Chris | Oct 7, 2008 1:45:22 PM
Being broke as hell, and living in a crazy economy haven't stopped me from making my contributions. Where are people who aren't actually living paycheck to paycheck? I don't want to hate on celebs who are clearly wealthy and can afford to make big drop in the bucket donations, but it'd sure as hell be nice.
And who the hell are these young'ins who are up for the ban? These Gossip Girl watching, Lindsey Lohan reading, aren't-lesbians-cool in that str8 guy kind of way, are never going to cop to the thought two guys banging away at each other and then MARRYING each other? No, perish the thought. Whatever...I'm giving what little change I have to the cause even though I'm a bit pessimistic about the thought of it all.
Posted by: Derrick | Oct 7, 2008 1:54:36 PM
Young people are phonies. Their so-called accepance of us is phony. Look at the industries which are supported by young people, such as the pop music industry. Is there one out gay or bi male in the music charts? Absolutely not. The types of records that young people are buying are generally by artists who are singing about their heterosexuality.
Posted by: mark | Oct 7, 2008 3:35:13 PM
The CBS Evening News said that Obama will bring out a lot of black voters in CA and most black ministers are preaching for the passage of Prop 8 so that is what is pushing it over the edge to passage. CBS said it; not me.
Posted by: dezboy | Oct 7, 2008 4:24:55 PM
Yes, DEZBOY, that's true...and too many black ministers are like conservative white ministers: they are hypocrites & bastards. But Barack will also bring out a lot of black voters who have no interest in black churches, black ministers, or anti-gay initiatives.
I'm not certain of my certainty on this, DEZBOY; but in the past, the majority of black voters have been anti-gay on these ballot initiatives because so many of those who voted were the church folks. There will be many non-religious zealot blacks who will be voting this time in California.
Did CBS Evening News mention what type of white voters the Palin Creature will bring out to the polls in California?
Posted by: Derrick from Philly | Oct 7, 2008 4:44:27 PM
Just a few comments.
I'm 100% with Leland in my utter contempt for Hollywood and especially gay Hollywood who have given NOTHING monetarily to this fight.
I think the No on Prop 2 campaign SUCKS! They spend all their time raising money and have little of real substance to show for it. Their TV ads are ABSOLUTELY TERRIBLE. They seem to have NO clue as to who to reach out to or how to reach out to them most effectively. It's like the whole campaign is being run by freshmen political science undergrads. They don't even seem to know how to effectively counter the false and malicious attacks being promoted by the other side.
I’m disgusted by the whole damned thing just as I am disgusted with Fairness for All Families, Equality Florida and Florida Red and Blue here in Florida. Between the three organizations they couldn’t campaign their way out of a wet paper bag.
Unfortunately I’m afraid that we are going to lose all three of these fights and it’s going to be because to frickin few homos give a damn and those who do don’t have a clue what to do about it.
I swear, I can’t believe that we as a community are not stronger and better than that. This whole affair has been extremely distressing and frustrating for me.
I’ll keep working my ass off right up until the polls close but at this point I think it will take a miracle for us to win a single state.
Posted by: Zeke | Oct 7, 2008 5:26:04 PM