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Poll: Gays Losing Marriage in Maine

A Research 2000/Kos poll of 600 likely Maine voters conducted between September 14-16 reveals that if the election were held today, Maine would lose marriage equality.

The relevant questions, via DailyKos:

Mainemarriage
According to the pollsters: "Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county. The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the 'true' figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation."

More questions about the state of Maine and the nation here.

(thanks, rex)

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Comments

  1. This is very disheartening. Maine is known, however, for being really weird politically.

    Posted by: JeffRob | Sep 18, 2009 9:20:55 AM


  2. Actually, the figures don't necessarily show gay marriage losing in Maine. With a margin of error of plus/minus four points, the ballot measure is in a statistical dead heat (meaning "true" support for the measure is likely between 44% and 52%; "true" opposition to the measure is likely between 42% and 50% -- so there is significant overlap).

    Gay marriage allies should focus on getting those demographics (Dems, Independents, women, younger voters) who strongly support marriage equality to vote on election day!

    Posted by: Tim | Sep 18, 2009 9:28:12 AM


  3. Really, this is another case of pro gay marriage foes being to damned nice. Why is it that the actually politically savvy homosexuals work for the Republican party? There is no ruthlessness in their strategy, just "we're people too" messaging. If anything Prop 8 should have taught them, is that depending on kindness from strangers is a recipe for fail.

    Fear is what works and they should fucking use it.

    Posted by: Hank | Sep 18, 2009 9:39:39 AM


  4. UGH, "pro gay marriage foes" should be "pro gay marriage forces"

    Posted by: Hank | Sep 18, 2009 9:40:23 AM


  5. This is exactly why the U.S. Founding Fathers were explicitly clear that Democracy does NOT mean mob rule, or a tyranny by the majority.

    The U.S. has totally failed to achieve a separation of church and state (read Canadian PM Paul Martin's speech from 2003, where he clearly delineated his personal issue as a Catholic with his *JOB* to ensure equal rights for all Canadians. Win.).

    With ballot questions like this the U.S. is ALSO failing to achieve a working Democracy that respects all its citizens. Double fail.

    Posted by: Strepsi | Sep 18, 2009 10:06:13 AM


  6. Why are Americans so incredibly easily swayed by standard political ads?

    They are fickle as hell, and its not just with gay marriage. Take any issue, people may show a good amount of support, you play a 30 second ad with some ominous music and loose misleading implications a few times and they suddenly freak out and change their minds.

    A certain part of America has no idea where they stand or what they want. Its like the people saying "get the government out of my Medicare!" and that teabag protest organizer complaining about PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION not accomodating the ANTI-GOVERNMENT protesters well enough when he actually voted to cut Metro funding. Why didn't they all just take privately funded taxi cabs? Because they don't know what the hell they really want.

    Gay marriage is almost an even simpler concept to grasp. Do you support gay relationships or not? Aside from all the bullsh*t, it usually does boil down to that.

    Its why politicians really should just ignore polls most of the time. Because any opinion the American people hold is likely to be flakey and short lived.

    Posted by: Wes | Sep 18, 2009 10:11:50 AM


  7. You can "spin" this anyway you want BUT is proves that people always "support" gay marriage until election day when the truth of "no" comes out. There are no witnesses to the crime once the election box curtain is closed. We are like the Democrats in their politics, so it's no wonder why we lose. Being polite promises failure.

    Posted by: 2nd Class Citizen | Sep 18, 2009 10:13:06 AM


  8. I agree that these figures are statistically too close to call, so the headline is a bit flawed. I am afraid that this could be another Prop8 if pro equality people do not act now. Strepsi is right. The Constitution prohibits mob rule. Even if Maine goes the wrong way like CA, justice will eventually come out in our favor. I for one, cannot wait for that.

    Posted by: Jason | Sep 18, 2009 10:14:44 AM


  9. The real question is, why is this up for a vote at all?

    Posted by: Jason Young | Sep 18, 2009 10:28:13 AM


  10. "Why is it that the actually politically savvy homosexuals work for the Republican party?"

    If they are working for the Republican party, they certainly aren't very savvy about changing the minds of their fellow Republicans. Not surprisingly, it is Republicans who overwhelmingly reject marriage equality. I agree that fear works for the opposition, but how would it work for us? Are we supposed to scare people into supporting marriage equality? What works for the opposition does not necessarily work for us. The sad fact is that in this country it's easier to prey on people's fears than on their sense of justice.

    I agree with Tim. We need to keep working on the persuadable but a key factor will be getting supporters to the polls. The support we have is irrelevant if supporters stay home.

    Posted by: Ernie | Sep 18, 2009 10:35:08 AM


  11. The dangerous part of this is that our biggest supporters are typically the least likely to come out and vote, while the old farts who are screwing us yet again always come out to vote. It is enough to make you want Congress to actually put death panels into health care reform.

    Posted by: ChristopherM | Sep 18, 2009 10:38:10 AM


  12. Not only is the margin of error bigger than the difference between Yes and No, as some people mentioned, there are also 6% voting "not sure" at this point. All told, this is better than I thought and has improved since the last poll taken in the summer.

    Clearly we need to get women, independents, and 20-somethings to come out in droves.

    Posted by: rafi | Sep 18, 2009 10:47:29 AM


  13. Uhm, I don't buy into these poll numbers based on people's land lines anymore. For the most part, the only people who do have landllines are old and/or retired; generally the very population that is easily swayed when it comes down to voting on issues that affect them. Just tell them that gay marriage will take away their Medicare benefits and they'll be at the voting booth in full force. Frankly, it's up to Marriage Equality in Maine to get younger voters out to vote and to drive the message home with that group. Couple this with the stellar ads they are already running in the state and you might change some of the mindset within the baby boomer population (after all, they do have grandchildren). That, is a winning strategy.

    Posted by: Keith | Sep 18, 2009 10:57:39 AM


  14. Madonna's daugther release a new video! and Lagay Ga Ga is wearing a weird outfit! That's what we care about!!That's what the blogs are providing to us. Madonna release a new album of herself farting and we go....WOW...she is reinventing herself!! (even though the bitch hasn't done anything to support our community in years!) but we still love her shitty music!!Until the Gays believe that our Rights are more important than stupid ass celebrities that don't support us in any way...we will NOT WIN!!!

    Posted by: Jake | Sep 18, 2009 11:10:12 AM


  15. Absolutely, the physical motion of pro-equality voters being transported to the polls on election day is far and away the most important part of our winning strategy. If you can help drive, please go do that.

    Posted by: JeffRob | Sep 18, 2009 11:13:19 AM


  16. Jake, come up with a realistic argument, grow up, or go to hell.

    The majority of us care about more than one thing a a time.

    Posted by: doug | Sep 18, 2009 11:49:06 AM


  17. We need to grow a set. Call The Equality folks in Maine and ask what you can do to help.

    info@protectmaineequality.org

    Posted by: Derek Washington | Sep 18, 2009 12:27:19 PM


  18. Gotta keep fighting. It's a dead heat at this point, well within the margin of error and the YESes didn't get 50%. Please, send all the money you can to Maine. Go there to volunteer. Volunteer to work a phone bank in your area. "As Maine goes, so goes the nation!"

    Posted by: Cyd | Sep 18, 2009 12:40:08 PM


  19. Hank, you are my new hero. I, too, am fucking sick and tired of "nice". Those anti-equality people play rough, nasty, dirty and they want to WIN. Being all "sweetness and light" and "we're just like you" and other nauseous "logic" that our side uses to try and win the battles of this war has gotten me INCENSED! Play dirty and nasty. And FIGHT, voter by voter, precinct by precinct, town by town, county by county. We lose Maine, we'll lose everywhere else. Anybody who thinks the right-wing in this country will sit back and not try to get back into power are taking too many drugs and doing too many circuit parties. They HATE us, goddamit! We have GOT to FIGHT BACK!

    Posted by: mike | Sep 18, 2009 2:14:02 PM


  20. I always wonder when I see these polls...how many of those anti-marriage people actually KNOW a gay person. And by know I don't mean see them on the street - I mean share an office, a yard, a blood relationship through family or marriage, etc.

    For many heterosexuals in this country it's easy to be against gay marriage because they are not impacted by its absence nor do they know anyone who is. Which is why we have to continue to break down the closet doors and be out!

    Because you know all those married men on craigslist and Manhunt are voting against gay marriage....

    Posted by: Ben | Sep 18, 2009 3:07:58 PM


  21. As expected. And I think the polls would have to show about 60% in favor of gay marriage for it to succeed on election day anyway. We're not winning this one, sorry.

    Posted by: Bruno | Sep 18, 2009 6:37:33 PM


  22. If they're this close to parity now (essentially they're at parity), in another few years at most the haters will lose for good.

    Posted by: RedCedar | Sep 18, 2009 8:08:45 PM


  23. Jake you have a very good point. When was the last time you saw celebreties come out in mass in support of marriage equality?

    Posted by: FunMe | Sep 18, 2009 9:41:16 PM


  24. Maine is a rural, poor (low income) state full of the kind of (white) people leftwing 'progressives' love to mock and ridicule. I'm very impressed, in a serious poll/vote, almost 50% are willing to vote in favor of gay marriage. Gay marriage in the other states that allow it, and Canada, was implemented by courts,not voted on. My gut instinct tells me gay marriage,if brought to a vote,especially in a election with a large turn-out, would have a serious uphill battle, even in Canada or New England.

    Posted by: John | Sep 20, 2009 6:50:22 AM


  25. Now we all know there's two demographics who have positively shown themselves to be uber anti-gay and homophobic....African Americans and evangelical Christians, especially southern Baptists. If we could only find a way to get African Americans and evangelical Christians, Baptists, Jehovah Witnesses, to be less violently anti-gay,homophobic, that would be an accomplishment. I'm not holding my breath.

    There are very few such people in New England; maybe that's why gay rights have made the most gains there.

    Posted by: John | Sep 20, 2009 6:59:10 AM


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