Sadly, National Organization for Marriage president Brian Brown may be right about the right winning in Minnesota: yet another poll is showing that a constitutional amendment barring marriage equality has a chance of passing.
A new survey from the Minnesota Star-Tribune shows 49% of voters said they would approve the measure, while 47% definitely oppose it. Four percent remain undecided.
This conservative edge does not, however, mean the amendment is "winning," says the paper, because a plurality does not equal a win: "Minnesota law requires any change to the Constitution to capture a majority of all ballots cast. That means a voter who skips the question is counted as a no vote."
Here's some of the predictable demographic breakdown:
Minnesota's oldest voters were the most likely to approve the amendment, with 55 percent of those 65 and older favoring the amendment. Younger voters are just as opposed, with 57 percent saying they will vote against it.
Fully 57 percent of men say they support the measure, but 56 percent of women were opposed.
Party affiliation is another strong fault line, with 78 percent of Republicans in favor and 73 percent of Democrats opposed. Independents, often crucial swing voters in any election, are coming down on the side of the amendment by 55 percent to 38 percent opposed. About 7 percent were undecided — the single-largest block of undecided voters in the sample on the marriage question.
Meanwhile, a vast majority of Minnesotans say they support civil unions: 68%. Most of the people who oppose marriage or civil unions are, again unsurprisingly, basing their vote on religious views.