With Hillary Clinton’s position on gay marriage back in the news following a combative interview with NPR host Terry Gross on the possible ‘political’ motivations for her “evolution” on the issue, statistician Nate Silver has taken the opportunity to crunch the numbers on whether Clinton’s late-blooming support was typical of women in her demographic profile.
Silver, using individual-level voter data from three states that voted on same-sex marriage initiatives in 2008 (California, Arizona, and Florida), found that somewhere between 75 and 90 percent of women in Clinton’s demographic profile (Democratic, non-evangelical Protestant, wealthy educated older females) supported same-sex marriage in 2008.
Silver says questions surrounding whether Clinton’s residence is urban or suburban and whether she is more of a “liberal” or a “moderate” account for the range – 75 percent of moderate, suburban women like Clinton supported gay marriage in 2008, with 90 percent of liberal, urban women like Clinton doing the same.
Furthermore, Silver found that about 75 percent of liberal, urban, Democratic women who otherwise match Clinton’s demographic characteristics did so even in 1992. And support among moderate, suburban Democratic women like Clinton rose above 50 percent shortly after her husband took office in 1993.
More on Silver’s findings HERE.