09/23/2008
Poll: Obama Needs 6 Point Margin to Buffer Racist Votes
A new Associated Press-Yahoo News poll conducted with Stanford University concludes that Barack Obama will need a six point margin to win the election to counteract voters who are simply racist:
"The poll of 2,227 adults was conducted Aug. 27-Sept. 5, and was designed to probe people's racial attitudes and how those attitudes affect voting. It shows that when it comes to race, there has been some progress in America: Most white people have positive things to say about black people. Still, pollsters found that a substantial portion of white Americans have very little contact with African-Americans - and many still harbor negative feelings toward them. Whites also have a rosier view of race relations than blacks. When asked "how much discrimination against blacks" exists, 10% of whites said "a lot" while 57% of blacks said 'a lot.' Asked how much of the nation's racial tension is created by blacks, more than a third of whites said 'most' or 'all.' Meanhile, nearly three-fouths of the blacks polled said while people have too much influence in U.S. politics. Also, the perception that voters in their 20s and 30s might go for Obama because they're less racially biased than their parents might be wrong."
Posted 9:41 AM EST by Andy Towle in Barack Obama, Election 2008, News, Polls | Permalink
Like it?
Subscribe to FREE Towleroad daily headlines with our RSS feed!
RECENT STORIES:
Comments
You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.
Oh no Andy, you fell for it
The AP poll is being questioned by CNN, MSNBC, etc as being faulty
1- Internet poll (the most unreliable!!!! easily freeped with no unbeatable safe guards against a single voter voting multiple times)
2- No questions bringing up age and the willingness of a voter to suppress racist views when age and mental health are brought into the picture (mcshame)
3- AP!!!! Ron Fournier a died in the wool repub who wanted to work for mcshame heading up the washington branch. Fournier causes anything from the AP now a days to be called into question due to bias.
4-
Posted by: Jimmyboyo | Sep 23, 2008 10:06:21 AM
Oh no Andy, you fell for it
The AP poll is being questioned by CNN, MSNBC, etc as being faulty
1- Internet poll (the most unreliable!!!! easily freeped with no unbeatable safe guards against a single voter voting multiple times)
2- No questions bringing up age and the willingness of a voter to suppress racist views when age and mental health are brought into the picture (mcshame)
3- AP!!!! Ron Fournier a died in the wool repub who wanted to work for mcshame heading up the washington branch. Fournier causes anything from the AP now a days to be called into question due to bias.
4-
Posted by: Jimmyboyo | Sep 23, 2008 10:08:37 AM
Why am I not surprised.
Jimmy, you still havent email me back on our bet. I am more than happy to pay if Obama wins, but if I win, I dont mind a $10 US Note.
Posted by: Landis | Sep 23, 2008 10:09:37 AM
If Obama loses, it will be because he didn't pick Hillary for a running mate, not because he is black. Bill Clinton is doing the talk show rounds and he is not there to help Obama. His (real) message to Clinton followers is to vote McCain. Pelosi, Reid and Dean all dissed the "unity ticket" for their own gain--over the best interest of the DNC. Now, we are paying the price. I think Obama can still win, but the election will be decided by the swing voters in the middle. Obama needs these white voters. While there may be much truth to this article, when the AP essentially calls theses white voters racists--it does NOT help in getting their vote. I think this is the wrong message.
Posted by: J. | Sep 23, 2008 10:10:39 AM
This poll has been out for a week and everyone and their mother was commenting on it. It was proven to be misleading. It was a poll of the general population, not registered voters or even likely voters. Which are more likely to be more educated, less racist, and only make up about 60 to 70 percent of the general population.
Also, having negative feelings toward African Americans does not mean someone will vote against Obama, there are so many factors that go into an individuals decision that we can't assume its based on race. Voting for President is about the individual, not about generalizations based on their background.
Posted by: Stephen | Sep 23, 2008 10:11:32 AM
If anything, this sounds too low.
Posted by: anon | Sep 23, 2008 10:12:35 AM
This poll's results may be faulty, but don't think this isn't an issue. At least it's out there and being discussed.
For some white undecideds, when they're standing there in the voting booth, they're going to see black man vs. old man.
Posted by: ATLsteve | Sep 23, 2008 10:25:53 AM
J,
you need to look at American race-relations history.
I said to friends of mine weeks ago that Barack needed an 8% to 10% buffer to offset the "Bradley Effect". THat is why I've been fascinated with Axelrod and the whole Barack Obama Campaign--their strategy to overcome the 350 years of American racism. THey must have studied something 19 months ago that led them to believe that this was possible. I never thought I'd see it in my life time: a black man elected as president of the United States--not even a black Republican like Colin Powell.
The Obama Campaign made me a believer. Now, I hope they can show me (and the world)something.
Posted by: Derrick from Philly | Sep 23, 2008 10:42:15 AM
landis
sorry, your e-mail must have been caught up in my spam filter
Also, sorry all on the double post. It was unintentional
ATLSTEVE
I understand "the black tax" and the wole idea of Bradley affect (blk candidates need extra 5% due to racism), but such could and should be discussed in the context of a proper poll. Faulty polls are just that = faulty polls
Posted by: Jimmyboyo | Sep 23, 2008 10:46:09 AM
J
BS
Bill might be a bit perturbed still, but Hillary is going gung ho in support of Obama. A true Hillary supporter would know such
"Hillary Sent Me" , but most likely you are a repub concern troll
Posted by: Jimmyboyo | Sep 23, 2008 10:48:25 AM
Obama's response:
http://slog.thestranger.com/2008/09/the_end_of_60_minutes_last_night
Posted by: Mike | Sep 23, 2008 10:52:00 AM
Derrick,
I think Obama is going to need all the luck in the world to get there.
I disagree that everyone is there to snub Obama. You also have to recognize that Obama did not want their help.
Posted by: Landis | Sep 23, 2008 10:58:42 AM
Uhm, yeah, no. This poll is about as accurate as John McCain's estimation of what "rich" means.
Not to be overly optimistic, but it seems to me that for every person feeling peer pressure right now to voice support for Obama but who will then go into the booth and vote for the white guy because they're racist assholes, there's a person feeling peer pressure right now to voice disgust at Obama but who will then go into the booth and vote for him because they're moderately intelligent.
If you haven't gotten a chance to read Sam Harris' article in Newsweek- "When Atheists Attack", be sure to: http://www.newsweek.com/id/160080
That man sure knows how to put Sarah Palin in perspective.
Posted by: JeffRob | Sep 23, 2008 11:12:13 AM
THE QUEEN: J said: "If Obama loses, it will be because he didn't pick Hillary for a running mate, not because he is black." COUNTESS: Well, he happens to be right. It was a mistake of epic proportions. THE QUEEN: And demonstrates bad judgment in my opinion. COUNTESS: I agree. And if Hillary didn't want to play second banana to the Big O she should have swallowed her pride and worked for the people as she so often claimed she would. Or maybe he didn't want to deal with Bill Clinton. THE QUEEN: But Bill said on The View that that wasn't the case. COUNTESS: Well, if that's true then I'm right, it was a stupid decision to make and will cost him the election.
Posted by: the queen with the countess de gooch | Sep 23, 2008 11:28:05 AM
Challenge the poll all you want, I am from the south and continue to live in atlanta and know people close to me who are not voting for Obama simply because he is black. An identical candidate who was white would be getting the same people's votes.
Posted by: Dan B | Sep 23, 2008 11:45:43 AM
THE QUEEN,
we've been told that between 25% to 30% of the people who voted for Hillary will NOT vote for Barack Obama. How do we know that these aren't the Archie Bunker Democrats (and some Independents & Republicans) who would NEVER vote for a black man under any circumstances? How do we know whether some of these 25% who voted for Hillary aren't the same Democrats who betray the Democratic Party every four years to vote Republican? We'll never know.
I respect Senator Hillary Clinton, and I appreciate the work she's putting in for Barack Obama during this campaign, but we don't know what was the motivation (during the primaries) for that percentage of her supporters who said, "never".
Posted by: Derrick from Philly | Sep 23, 2008 11:48:39 AM
1. This poll is bogus based on how it was conducted and who conducted it. Not to mention WHY.
2. Yes, there are people out there who will NOT vote for a black person. However, they're mostly on the Republican side OR are Democrats-in-name-only—either way, almost all of them are already being reflected in the current polls...which show Obama ahead: This is not going to be an election where we ask, "How did Obama lose after being ahead?" with the answer being race, it's an election where we ask, "Why didn't he win by an even larger margin?" with the answer being race.
After wearing Dems out with withering attacks on Obama (and, luckily, rendering some of those points useless by now) during their primary, Hillary has been conducting herself perfectly. Bill, on the other hand, is an asshole.
Posted by: Matthew Rettenmund | Sep 23, 2008 12:13:55 PM
several things to ponder. with all these polls both dealing with obama and the california, arizona,and florida marriage amendments. i wonder accurate they are, with people giving a politically correct answer and then voting opposite. is there a rule of thumb, satistics, which was soemthing i could never get a handle on in school.
here in florida, i have seen polls both saving the amendment will pass or fail. we need at least 40% plus one vote for it to fail. supposedly african-americans need to vote conservative on the marriage issue. with obama on the ticket, i would expect their numbers to reach historic portions. which leads me to a great concern. are they all properly registered? i know voter registration varies from state to state, but i am concern with those showing up trying to vote and are not registered. i have seen nothing at all in any media addressing this issue.
back in the boondoggled of the 2000 election 2 1/2% of the ballots in florida were thrown out due to the inproper casting of ballots. historically i have read 2% is the national norm. the additional 1/2% in 2000 was due to the influx of new voters, whom were allowed to register when they got their drivers license (our moter-voter law). this % reflected a poorly educated voter.
my question is, has anyone seen anything dealing with this.
Posted by: titus | Sep 23, 2008 12:27:37 PM
several things to ponder. with all these polls both dealing with obama and the california, arizona,and florida marriage amendments. i wonder accurate they are, with people giving a politically correct answer and then voting opposite. is there a rule of thumb, satistics, which was soemthing i could never get a handle on in school.
here in florida, i have seen polls both saving the amendment will pass or fail. we need at least 40% plus one vote for it to fail. supposedly african-americans need to vote conservative on the marriage issue. with obama on the ticket, i would expect their numbers to reach historic portions. which leads me to a great concern. are they all properly registered? i know voter registration varies from state to state, but i am concern with those showing up trying to vote and are not registered. i have seen nothing at all in any media addressing this issue.
back in the boondoggled of the 2000 election 2 1/2% of the ballots in florida were thrown out due to the inproper casting of ballots. historically i have read 2% is the national norm. the additional 1/2% in 2000 was due to the influx of new voters, whom were allowed to register when they got their drivers license (our moter-voter law). this % reflected a poorly educated voter.
my question is, has anyone seen anything dealing with this.
Posted by: titus | Sep 23, 2008 12:27:52 PM
several things to ponder. with all these polls both dealing with obama and the california, arizona,and florida marriage amendments. i wonder accurate they are, with people giving a politically correct answer and then voting opposite. is there a rule of thumb, satistics, which was soemthing i could never get a handle on in school.
here in florida, i have seen polls both saving the amendment will pass or fail. we need at least 40% plus one vote for it to fail. supposedly african-americans need to vote conservative on the marriage issue. with obama on the ticket, i would expect their numbers to reach historic portions. which leads me to a great concern. are they all properly registered? i know voter registration varies from state to state, but i am concern with those showing up trying to vote and are not registered. i have seen nothing at all in any media addressing this issue.
back in the boondoggled of the 2000 election 2 1/2% of the ballots in florida were thrown out due to the inproper casting of ballots. historically i have read 2% is the national norm. the additional 1/2% in 2000 was due to the influx of new voters, whom were allowed to register when they got their drivers license (our moter-voter law). this % reflected a poorly educated voter.
my question is, has anyone seen anything dealing with this.
Posted by: titus | Sep 23, 2008 12:28:09 PM
Hillary would have won over McCain. Obama should have waited four years to get experience and actually do some legislative work!, yet he jumped on the gun. Fucking douche! McCain will win, no fucking doubt since Palin joined. I'm only 15 so i cant vote, but i hope Obama wins :-)
Posted by: Dakota | Sep 23, 2008 12:43:47 PM
Polls like this make me want to be a Republican. It's as if the Democrats tried to play the "victim" card again and were behind this poll. So, if this "poll" was to be fair, how come it didn't ask how many people are voting for Obama BECAUSE HE IS BLACK. Better yet, how many people aren't voting for McCain because of ageism. Lets face the truth: the only reason Obama is even a candidate is BECAUSE HE'S BLACK. His being a candidate is the most blatent type of affirmative action I've ever seen. I am voting for him not because I like him, but because I'm voting against McSame and Palin. Polls like this, however, are made to sensationalize race.
Posted by: daryl | Sep 23, 2008 12:50:11 PM
Wow, the levels of racist white resentment and denial on this thread are astounding. Not really surprising, but depressing as hell.
Posted by: MAJeff | Sep 23, 2008 1:03:02 PM
You wanna know what racist is? Just look at your television set. BLACK Entertainment Television, BLACK Award shows. And now we have an idiot who is going to be president just because he is BLACK. I have always voted Democrat. Now, I'm voting for McCain. Affirmative action has no place in elections.
Posted by: Seward | Sep 23, 2008 1:25:26 PM
Seward, make sure you remember your white sheet.
Posted by: MAJeff | Sep 23, 2008 1:35:08 PM