California | Gay Marriage | News

Proposition 8 Update: Internal Polling Shows Dead Heat
Urgent Help Still Needed

road.jpg This morning I got an update from the "no on Prop 8" campaign. Based on their donation link tracking, TOWLEROAD readers have given a total of $77,643.00 !!!!

While that number amazes me, unfortunately, there are still 6 crucial days left in this battle. According to Geoff Kors of Equality California, unless the "No on Prop 8" campaign raises $3 million in the next three days we will likely lose because of a surge in funding from the other side.

And you can make your voice heard with a contribution, or an increase in what you've already given, by donating HERE.

road.jpg This Saturday, several ultra-right-wing religious groups will be gathering 70,000 evangelicals together in San Diego at Qualcomm Stadium for 'The Call' -- a mega-church event that will mobilize thousands of out-of-state
volunteers to get out the vote in California. This is the craziness we're up against. The Courage Campaign is looking to match them volunteer-for volunteer. ign up here to volunteer.

road.jpg You may be tired of hearing about the battle against Proposition 8, but here's why it's still important: "With Democrat Barack Obama favored to win the White House race in California, the state's biggest election day battle is shaping up to be a referendum seeking to ban gay marriage." And the implications nationally could not be greater.

Mcclintockroad.jpg State Senator Tom McClintock spoke at a rally for 'Yes on 8' yesterday at the Capitol in Sacramento that drew 300 people. You may remember that last week McClintock said, "Lincoln asked, 'If you call a tail a leg, how many legs has a dog? The answer is four. Calling a tail a leg doesn’t make it one. And calling a homosexual partnership a marriage doesn’t make it one."

road.jpg Here's a list of editorial boards across the state of California which have rejected Proposition 8.

road.jpg A blogging campaign called Write to Marry Day has engaged nearly 300 bloggers to spread the word about "No on Prop 8" today. You can see them all here.

Templeton_3road.jpg Californians Against Hate sent an update this morning highlighting the largest donors to the "Yes on 8" campaign. They include Bryn Mawr, Pennsylvania's John Templeton, chairman of the John M. Templeton Foundation, based in West Conshohocken. He and his wife have contributed $1 million to help pass the anti-gay ballot measure.

Elsaroad.jpg Another big donor to "Yes on 8" is Elsa Prince Broekhuizen of Holland, Michigan. This old bigot gave $450,000 so gays will not be able to marry in California: "In 2004, Broekhuizen was the top West Michigan contributor to Michigan's anti-gay marriage amendment, adding $75,000 to the cause. Broekhuizen, 75, is mother to Betsy DeVos, the former state GOP chair who is married to 2006 GOP gubernatorial candidate Dick DeVos, and Erik Prince, founder of private security firm Blackwater Worldwide. She is the widow of the late Holland industrialist Edgar Prince and has remarried."

road.jpg To the right wing in California, this is the election issue since there's no way McCain will be winning in the state. If this disgusting piece of video, doesn't cause you to want to donate, I don't know anything that will. Talk about the exploitation of children.

road.jpg Fuel has been added to the fire behind the 'Yes on 8' campaign by a Bay Area elementary school teacher who asked her pupils to sign pledge cards promising not to use anti-gay slurs: "ProtectMarriage.com, the coalition of social and religious conservative groups sponsoring Proposition 8, offered the episode at Faith Ringgold Elementary School in Hayward as proof for its claim that the measure is needed to prevent public schools from discussing gay unions with students. 'Since the words 'between a man and a woman' have been taken out of the California laws, it has created a can opener for gay activists to take this kind of curriculum into our elementary schools—not 9th grade, not 12th grade, but kindergarten,' said campaign spokeswoman Sonya Eddings Brown." Of course, Proposition 8 has nothing to do with teaching in schools, but the religious right wing, as you know, will do anything to twist the truth.

road.jpg The "No on Prop 8" campaign will begin airing these two independently-produced ads as part of the campaign.

And you can keep the message airing with a contribution, or an increase in what you've already given, by donating HERE.

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Comments

  1. I just sent an email blast to 40 friends pleading for contributions to NoOnProp8.com and to contact their family/friends in California.

    You can search a database of those supporting and opposing Prop 8 here:

    http://www.sfgate.com/webdb/prop8/

    Search for your friends' names and if nothing pops up... call them out on it. I know it may seem aggressive but we have six days left before this hateful Proposition passes. The seriousness of this can not be overstated. If EVERY gay person and their allies gave $5.00, we'd beat this thing hands down.

    If you're reading this and haven't contributed, please do so NOW:

    https://secure.ga4.org/01/equalityforall

    Posted by: John In Manhattan | Oct 29, 2008 7:14:58 PM


  2. That mega church tent-revival video is the best "No on 8" ad I've seen.

    Posted by: Jesus | Oct 29, 2008 7:22:53 PM


  3. John: I've been doing the same. We only have a few days left ... please help. The battle line on gay rights has been drawn in California -- no matter how you feel personally about the marriage issue. If we lose this, we will lose a lot of our political capital, not just within CA, but within the USA. Democrats will be afraid to touch ENDA, DOMA, or DADT after such a visible loss.

    Please do what you can during these last few days.

    Please don't let them take away my marriage.

    Posted by: Garrett in SF | Oct 29, 2008 7:25:19 PM


  4. You deserve a standing ovation, Andy, for all you've done from afar to help defeat Prop 8!

    Some of you might not realize that Andy lives in New York City. It's true that, should they want to, he and Dave could get married [now anyway] in California and the state of New York would recognize it. However, that's just the policy of the current state government, and a new governor could rip it out from under them faster than you can say, "Sing out, Louise!" The real heroes are those who do things that don't benefit them directly.

    If any of you outside of California don't yet get how important defeating 8 is to gays everywhere, reread the gigantic pro 8 donations from American Taliban members in other states. Templeton, BTW, is also spending a lot of money to defeat Obama. His fascist goon squad "Let Freedom Ring USA" has produced several lying, inflammatory videos which countless people are e-mailing to each other across the country that just stop short of calling him a "Communist Nigger."

    Posted by: Michael Bedwell | Oct 29, 2008 7:26:28 PM


  5. Thanks to all those who have bravely given their support to the fight for marriage equality.

    Posted by: Dan | Oct 29, 2008 7:39:08 PM


  6. Please keep talking about Prop 8. In Virginia we passed an amendment and it really was an awful experience, IF they win in CA, they will continue to march hate across the country.

    Can you make a 'sticky" on top of the page for the 3 days?

    Posted by: Tom In Virginia | Oct 29, 2008 7:58:54 PM


  7. I am a big confused. No has 29 mil. The other side had roughly 27 mil. Now they are 30 mil with the additional numbers that I have been following. That's a difference on 1 mil. That amount is neglible. I am all for donating, but I wish you didn't feel the need to keep saying we will lose each time you say donate. This isn't just a money arms race. Ultimately no amount of matching their funding with address the fundamentals of whether voters will agree with Yes on Eight's lies (at this point multiple sources in ads repeatedly saying that the Yes on 8 are lying). You can't rational this into being. This truly does feel like the gay movement is at least several years behind the rest of the progressive movement. I hope I am wrong, and somehow there are numbers that I am not seeing.

    Also- what internal polls show they are neck and neck mean if you aren't providing the numbers and the methodology? I hate to do this,but I want more informationf rom you than propaganda.

    Posted by: akaison | Oct 29, 2008 7:59:47 PM


  8. Sorry for all the typos, but I really would like analysis over propaganda about what's happening out there.

    Posted by: akaison | Oct 29, 2008 8:01:48 PM


  9. Agreed, AKAISON. Signorile posted the full letter link:

    http://www.eqcapac.org/3mill3days

    CA being what it is, a huge state, the 'air war' is very important. That said, I wonder what their poll numbers are coming from--perhaps Lake Research which they also quoted from before with the 'dead heat' and the gays losing slightly?

    I was quite upset today, tuning into L.A. radio stations, and hearing those misleading ads from the 'Yes' side. But at least I've seen dueling No signs, and No ads on TV.

    It was more disturbing to have the traffic announcer say the report was 'sponsored by...' the Yes people for 'protecting marriage'...

    Hopefully the larger Democratic-leaning base of California voters will turn out for Obama, and as the PPIC poll suggested, this is the biggest predictor of No on 8.

    Here's hoping...

    Posted by: Dan | Oct 29, 2008 8:19:21 PM


  10. Lets not forget prop. 2 in Florida

    Posted by: *M* | Oct 29, 2008 8:28:36 PM


  11. I totally agree with one of the posters above... that "revival" video is just about the best NO on 8 ad... they are fricken' nuts...

    Posted by: Mike | Oct 29, 2008 8:44:13 PM


  12. Well- I've read the best pollster for Ca is actually Field , which was the one that had Prop 8 losing by a lot.

    So far the only one to show the Prop tied is the SUSA poll.

    The PPIC poll is actually very good for our society although the articles from LA Times spend it as not. If you look at the internals, of who is supporting what, etc-- its like the GOP voter has come home on to the Yes on 8 so that explains the tightening, but the No on 8 was still outside of the margin of error.

    More than that the internals of PPIC actually showed the key demographic shift of Latino voters toward supporting No on 8.

    Check out this link for some reason analysis:

    it was 52 percent against, 44 percent for.

    The key finding of the guy looking at the internals was the following:

    "According the most recent PPIC poll (the gold standard poll in California), Proposition 8 is trailing by a 52%-44% margin. While the margin has tightened up since September, key crosstabs give us reasons to feel optimistic. Independent voters are trending in No's direction. In September, Independent voters were opposed by a 53%-42% margin. In the most recent polls, Independent voters are opposed by a 58%-39% margin. Additionally, there has been significant movement among Latino voters. In September Latino voters were opposed to Prop 8 by a 50%-46% margin. They are now opposed by a 53%-43% margin. So where has the gain for Prop 8 come from? Republicans. They were in favor by a 62%-34% margin. However, they are now in favor by a 70%-26% margin. That's still not bad news for our side. Considering the ads the Yes on 8 side ran, the fact that over a quarter of Republicans are still voting no means they have essentially dug in their heels and will vote No (many of them have probably already voted No). "

    http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/27/22322/436/604/643175

    Some of the assumptions are optimistic, but not all.

    Also there is this about understanding the CA numbers-- although the numbers shifted from Republicans in favor by a 62%-34% margin. However, they are now in favor by a 70%-26% margin-- the registered Republicans in the state has gone down to the lowest in 4 presidential election cycles.

    I am not trying to say stop working, but I don't work from the theory that people need to be pessmistic in order to fight for something. I would love a better idea of what's going on out there.

    A field poll would be really good about now.

    Posted by: akaison | Oct 29, 2008 9:11:10 PM


  13. Jesus, Akaison, take a laxative, will ya?

    I have MANY problems with the way the NO campaign has been run, but to effectively broadbrush it as, "Well, you've let the house fall apart over the years so I'm not even gonna try to stop the rain coming in now" is childish at best.

    Unless YOU can prove that the NO people have some OTHER motive for appealing for more donations, besides doing the most they can in this time and place to win, then might you best simply not send anything yourself if you believe it pointless .... rather than discouraging others from contributing based on nothing but your subjective, non-empirical, cynical disbelief?

    With friends like you.....

    Posted by: Leland Frances | Oct 29, 2008 9:25:03 PM


  14. Leland Frances:Instead of being rude and obnoxious to your peers,why dont you practice what you preach,huh! That goes for the rest of the attitudes,you know who u are.

    Posted by: KS | Oct 29, 2008 9:34:11 PM


  15. I just donated another $100. Please do all you can to stop this horrible proposition! www.noonprop8.com

    Posted by: Tweety | Oct 29, 2008 9:36:42 PM


  16. Hello Kitty, er KS: it's a bit dated, but still apt:

    Lead....follow....or get out of the way.

    Posted by: Leland Frances | Oct 29, 2008 9:50:16 PM


  17. CANDLE LIGHT RALLY FOR NO ON 8!!!

    Hi Everyone,

    As many of you know, on November 1st at Qualcomm Stadium, over 40,000 peopl
    e from all over the state are gathering to say a prayer that Proposition 8
    passes. In response to this, over one thousand of "No on 8" supporters will be lining University Ave. in a candle light rally. We
    will let our voice be heard that we do not want our rights taken away. Wit
    h only a few days left before Election Day, we all need to stand united in
    this historic moment. Please join me on November 1st at 9pm on University
    Ave. in Hillcrest and please let all of your friends and family know.
    As Californians we have an obligation to help lead this great country into the n
    ext generation by setting an example, by preserving the rights and freedoms
    of all Americans.

    You can pick up your candle at the GLBT center in Hillcrest, located at 390
    9 Centre Street. Mayor Jerry Sanders and his daughter will be handing out
    the candles. "No on 8" signs will also be provided.

    Remember to Vote No on 8 on Nov. 4th!

    Posted by: MyDogsDad | Oct 29, 2008 10:07:05 PM


  18. Why dont you do yourself a favor and get out of MY way,and let the rest of us with intelligence TCB (Take Care of Business)THANK U now Too-Dool-ooo

    Posted by: KS | Oct 29, 2008 10:07:35 PM


  19. Journalist Chris Reed predicts that will be the case, but insists Newsom shouldn't get skewered. The blame, he writes, belongs elsewhere:


    …The recriminations will be intense if Prop. 8 succeeds. I think San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom will be haunted forever by his braying, arrogant soundbite after the May state Supreme Court ruling declaring gay marriage legal in California: "The door's wide-open now. It's gonna happen, whether you like it or not!" It was off-the-charts smart for the pro-8 forces to replay the clip over and over in their ads.

    For my money, though, any recriminations should focus on California Supreme Court Chief Justice Ronald George. This state was gradually moving toward a gay-marriage consensus. But it just wasn't there yet when George, in his own way, declared it's gonna happen, whether you like it or not.

    I found George's legal reasoning to be sound and persuasive. But given his past moderation and unadventurousness, his decisive vote to impose gay marriage on California was deeply uncharacteristic. It may well have been principled. Yet given George's history, it looks far more like posturing for the history books than anything else

    Posted by: javier | Oct 29, 2008 10:32:22 PM


  20. Leland:

    If you want to remain ignorant, don't read my posts. I'm not interested in stupid queens who want to ignore data in favor of hysteria or feel-goodism. I post data for those gay men like myself who want to know that data. Apparently, since posting this sort of thing I do get some positive response despite people like you act like silly little whiny bitches. On any other site dealing with politics- real data is actually considered- you know- kind of helpful.

    The irony of course is that the numbers I posted say we have a good shot of winning this while the rest you want to raise money I guess through being hysterical. I don't know what you think this drama will produce, but I doubt you will see that much more donations than if you actually tried to tell people we have a good shot of winning and why the money would help that.


    KS

    Thanks for the post. Some of the posters really are behind where the rest of the political world is. Things like lead or get out of the way are phrases that people used to throw out at around the time Kerry was running because they were afraid. The irony on that is that this poster who wrote that doesn't get that I've donated money several times now. In their black or white world one can't point out what the polls really say versus being hysterical.

    Posted by: akaison | Oct 29, 2008 10:43:54 PM


  21. The only blame that needs to be leveled is against those who supported the amendment and brought it to the ballot. There is also no such thing as organic in civil rights efforts. There are often a lot of forward movements then retreats. If you don't believe me- look at the African American civil rights movement and its history regarding Brown v Board of Education. You demonstrate you don't understand history by trying to make this about anything other than bigotry. There will never be a magic moment when bigotry will stop if no one fights it. It can go on forever.

    This mind set, blaming allies, is also the mind set of liberal by gone years. It's the battered wife syndrome of "I am sorry for putting myself in the way of your hand."

    It's also a mindset that is not legally accurate to blame the Ca S.Ct. They were responding as courts are suppose to legal controversy. More than that, if Ca weren't mucked up in its structure, the fact that duly elected representatives of the people did in fact pass gay marriage, and the S Ct only ratified that decision, then there wouldn't be an issue.

    Read Glenn Grenwald who wrote extensively on this when the "judicial activist" idiots paraded out there silliness when the case was decided in May:

    http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2008/05/15/california/

    Posted by: akaison | Oct 29, 2008 10:53:23 PM


  22. PHOTOGRAPHY DUO MARKUS KLINKO & INDRANI JOIN THE NATIONAL ADVISORY BOARD OF MARRIAGE EQUALITY USA
    http://blog.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=blog.view&friendID=130070193&blogID=444822102

    Posted by: David | Oct 29, 2008 11:04:59 PM


  23. I just donated another $100. I think I'm up to about $400 or so. We need to counter this stuff. Freaks are mortgaging their houses to donate. Mormons are the most debt-ridden group of people in America I've been told, so a little to them is nothing in the grand scheme. We need to reach a little deeper to stop this mess.

    I've been with my sweetie for 14 years and honestly, we don't really have any interest in marrying, BUT- hell if some hateful, ill-educated, small minded bible thumpers are going to steal the ALREADY GIVEN right for us to marry or the right for others who need this right. It's inexcusable that somehow my marriage or anyone else's somehow threatens an existing marriage someplace else with people who never meet. Asinine. Fight against hate. NO on 8!

    Posted by: pickles | Oct 30, 2008 12:03:11 AM


  24. I don't get everyone's criticism of Gavin Newsom.

    I'm proud to say that he is my mayor.

    He is one of very very few politicians who is unabashedly in support of the state recognizing my equality as a citizen of California and the United States.

    It's a shame (and embarrassing) we can't say the same about our next president, regardless of who that may be.

    Posted by: Eric | Oct 30, 2008 2:06:27 AM


  25. I'm hoping 'No on 8' is successful down there. If not, y'all are welcome to come to Canada where gay marriage doesn't seem to be endangered (as of yet, anyway).

    Posted by: Pax Canada | Oct 30, 2008 5:27:08 AM


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