2012 Election | Barack Obama | Gay Marriage | News

Polls Unmoved by Obama's Marriage Equality Endorsement

Both Nate Silver and Ezra Klein see no fallout (and perhaps a tiny boost) in the polls for Obama over his same-sex marriage endorsement.

Writes Klein:

ObamaAs it happens, today is the first day that all of the polls included in the Real Clear Politics head-to-head average were taken fully or mostly after May 9th, the day President Obama endorsed gay marriage. As of this morning, they show Obama with a 1.7 percent lead. Looking back at the Wonkbook Dashboards, on the morning of May 9th, however, Obama had a 0.2 percent lead in the RCP head-to-head average. So since coming out for gay marriage, his numbers have slightly improved.
A 1.5 percent swing in the polling average isn't nothing. But it's not much. And it's certainly not clear it was caused by Obama's comments on gay marriage. What we can say is that for all the hubbub, and all the column inches devoted to gaming out the political fallout, Obama's announcement led to little evident movement in the polls, and what movement there has been has been in his favor.

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Comments

  1. It's a real shame this election is basically going to come down to gay marriage. You know, who cares if America was driven down the drain when a Republican was president. If the GOP wins again all I can say is America deserves to be flushed which will most definitely happen with our economy.

    Posted by: Michael | May 22, 2012 11:17:57 AM


  2. Economy will be the key issue in this election.

    Posted by: Matt26 | May 22, 2012 11:20:35 AM


  3. The key issue in this election will be haircutting.

    Posted by: David Ehrenstein | May 22, 2012 11:51:16 AM


  4. The good thing is that his numbers have not droped, like many said it would. It's more then SSM this time. He has a rough road ahead

    Posted by: GeorgeM | May 22, 2012 11:51:30 AM


  5. The polls aren't the only thing that's "unmoved" by the announcement. I'm not either. While I appreciate them and don't deny the historic aspect of the first sitting-President speaking those words, words are all they were. When I see MOVEMENT to back those words, then I'll be "moved." When I see action that puts teeth into those words, I'll be "moved". When the NAACP can release a statement supporting the right of same-sex couples to marry WITHOUT the disclaimer/apologistic-slap-in-the-face about religious freedom tagged onto the end of it, then I'll be "moved."

    Posted by: Mommie Dammit | May 22, 2012 12:08:04 PM


  6. The words have been backed up by Obama's DOJ's response to DOMA cases for quite some time, Mommie. And we know what the Republican movement would be on all lgbt issues.

    The election shouldn't and likely won't be decided on the President's statement, but it should help motivate anyone who cares about moving forward instead of backwards on our civil rights to get to the polls. With apathetic middle-aged straight independents it's probably a wash, since it would be very strange if our marriages were a priority to them.

    Posted by: Ernie | May 22, 2012 12:16:08 PM


  7. When this correction is over, Bernanke will juice the economy leading up to the election. But if Mittens should win, it will be a catastrophe for LGBTs. I'll move back to France for good.

    Posted by: candide001 | May 22, 2012 12:29:20 PM


  8. When this correction is over, Bernanke will juice the economy leading up to the election. But if Mittens should win, it will be a catastrophe for LGBTs. I'll move back to France for good.

    Posted by: candide001 | May 22, 2012 12:29:20 PM


  9. I am so relieved. The last thing I would ever want to do hurt President Obama.

    Posted by: Jacques Rosas | May 22, 2012 2:03:26 PM


  10. Sounds like a few people here would prefer a Romney presidency that would strip away whatever gains the LGBT community have gotten under the Obama Administration. smh.

    Posted by: Mike | May 22, 2012 2:28:46 PM


  11. This should come as no surprise. The economy is foreskin, I mean forefront and center. My boyfriend and I are thrilled that Obama, once again, approves of same sex marriage, even though he has flipped on the issue more times than a pancake, but Americans are trying to feed their families, and they're having a tough time now.

    Posted by: Alan | May 22, 2012 2:31:24 PM


  12. Never good enough, is it? Obama could perform at the Monster with Liza Minelli, and it would be 'Not enough! I'm voting for Romney.'

    Posted by: Gregoire | May 22, 2012 3:20:38 PM


  13. white gays cannot stand for a black man being their liberator.

    sad. you would think our community would be less ignorant.

    Posted by: JigsawFalling | May 22, 2012 3:32:49 PM


  14. @jigsawfalling. that's a stupid reading

    the election will be mostly about the economy of course. still unclear how romney will roll out the "family values" schtick

    believe there are 4 referendums on marriage equality this nov?

    maryland, wash, minn, and maine.

    Posted by: gomez | May 22, 2012 8:49:36 PM


  15. I still assert it doesn't matter the issue Romney would be horrendous on the Economy all the way to Gay Rights. This is a man who has backflipped to asset Civil Unions are extreme for him (Probably because it has the word Union). His stance on the economy has been austerity which is just politician talk for "I'm going to cut more jobs and give all the money to those who are most successful." Bitter people against Obama are just going to continue to be bitter, i bet you half of anyone who says "I supported him in 08, but..." either didn't vote, or didn't ever vote for him and continue to try to get us to side with them as if Romney was a gay man himself. Get over him GOProud & Log Cabin R's. Romney is just not that into you.

    I'm very happy the polls indicate that people don't see it as a defining issue as it isn't anymore. Obama has come out for equality, despite the threat that he could loose by a very tight election. I had my doubts about this president in the past, but after everything he's done for our community and the painful economy fixing against Republicans who want to see the economy crash and burn. There is no question who I am voting for.

    Posted by: Redebbm | May 22, 2012 9:19:27 PM


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