PPP Poll: Minnesota Anti-Gay Marriage Amendment in Serious Trouble After Major Shift in Attitudes
Minnesota's amendment to ban same-sex marriage, on the polls this November, is in serious troubleand faces mounting opposition, according to poll numbers released today by Public Policy Polling:
Minnesota's constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage now appears to be in serious danger of failing, a reversal from a PPP poll four months ago when it led for passage by a 48/44 margin.
Now only 43% of voters support the proposed amendment, with 49% of voters opposed to it. The shift since then has come with independent voters. After previously supporting the amendment by a 50/40 spread, they're now opposing it 54/37. Republicans continue to strongly favor the amendment (74/21) while Democrats are almost equally strong in their opposition (71/22).
Independents coming a lot closer to Democrats than Republicans on gay rights is becoming something of a constant in our polling. The GOP seriously risks antagonizing voters in the middle if it continues to pursue a far right social agenda.
Minnesota sees the same massive generational gap on this issue that we've found in other states. Voters over 45 support the proposed amendment by a 50/42 spread. But those under 45 oppose it by an even greater 60/34 margin.
Voters in the state think gay marriage should be legal by a 47/42 margin, closely matching the numbers on the amendment. And when you expand the discussion to civil unions 75% of voters support some form of legal recognition for gay couples to only 21% who think there should be none. That includes even 55% of Republicans.
Full results HERE.
Gee, what event in the past two months could have possibly changed their minds?
Posted by: Gregoire | Jun 5, 2012 2:50:43 PM
Banning contracts between consenting adults is just ignorant.
Posted by: Mykelb | Jun 5, 2012 2:52:49 PM
As a MN resident I think your headline is a bit disingenuous. There's a long way to go before anyone can say that this amendment is in "serious trouble." Things certainly look better than they did, but it's not like the gap is insurmountable.
(Not to be Debbie Downer. But we all have to stay vigilant on this one. Please.)
Posted by: Dave | Jun 5, 2012 3:12:10 PM
Until the polls read 60/40 against the amendment, I am not going to put my confidence in any poll.
Posted by: KT | Jun 5, 2012 3:43:26 PM
yes I too will not believe it until all the votes are counted, there are A LOT of closet haters who say one thing but vote another.
Posted by: Johnny | Jun 5, 2012 3:47:29 PM
i keep saying this, but pressing someone for their opinion on this and then expecting them to actually get off their arse to vote for it are 2 different things. the haters are much more motivated. and most straight people who would agree with us are too lazy and apathetic to actually vote for something that won't affect the, people are selfish. and it is for these reasons that civil rights issues like this should NEVER be put to a public vote. we will never win these votes.
Posted by: DanSwon | Jun 5, 2012 3:57:51 PM
Again, this blog and other sites overplay the significance of polls. As already demonstrated in 30 plus states, polls consistently overestimate the pro-gay vote and especially underestimate the anti-gay vote. From past experience, polls that say that the pro-gay side is narrowly ahead inevitably lead to the anti-gay side winning on election day. Moreover, if there are any undecideds in a poll, they will end up voting for the anti-gay side. As many have said, in order to feel confident about the outcome on election day, the pro-gay side has to have a 60/40 advantage in poll, which is far from the case here. A 54/37 advantage in polls is anemic, and similar to polls in other places before elections we lost. This poll indicates the anti-gay side will prevail.
Posted by: Luke | Jun 5, 2012 5:25:50 PM
As has been noted elsewhere, under Minnesota election law, NOT voting FOR a constitutional amendment is registered as a "no" vote. In other words, an amendment must get 50% plus 1 votes to pass. If the 43% number is remotely reflective of voter sentiment, then the amendment has a steep hill to climb and it will be a Presidential year. Historically Minnesota has the highest voter turnout in the country.....so here's hoping for a win on this one.
Posted by: David | Jun 5, 2012 5:31:00 PM
David's comment above confused me a bit, because I wasn't sure whether he was suggesting that if a voter stayed home, this was registered as a "no" vote on a proposed constitutional amendment in Minnesota. So I looked into it, and apparently passage of such an amendment requires a majority of THOSE VOTING AT THE ELECTION, not a majority of all registered voters. Here is some info from the Minnesota legislature's website:
"Since 1900, the constitution has required the approval of a majority of those voting at the election—not just a majority of those voting on the amendment question—to ratify the amendment. Thus, if a person votes at the election, failure to vote on an amendment is the equivalent of a “no” vote. A notice to this effect is printed on the ballot. Historically, it has taken roughly a 60 percent “yes” vote to pass an amendment."
So from my perspective, this is somewhat encouraging, but not nearly as encouraging as if ratification of an amendment required an actual majority of all registered voters in the state.
Posted by: Rob | Jun 5, 2012 8:31:15 PM
This poll is NOT great news. We really should be over 50%, history does should most undecideds end up voting yes. But still optimistic because of the non votes counting as "no". Should be a high turnout with the presidential election and can easily imagine a lot of people only voting for President and skipping the rest of the ballot.
Posted by: Ken | Jun 5, 2012 11:23:57 PM
Stay alert. Poop 8 was failing just a few weeks before the election in CA.
Posted by: Gene Touchet | Jun 6, 2012 11:01:00 AM
"This poll is NOT great news. We really should be over 50%, history does should most undecideds end up voting yes. But still optimistic because of the non votes counting as "no". Should be a high turnout with the presidential election and can easily imagine a lot of people only voting for President and skipping the rest of the ballot."
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