2012 Election | Barack Obama | News

New Poll Shows Obama Up 5 in Ohio; Campaign Manager Jim Messina Discusses State of Race: VIDEO


Obama campaign manager Jim Messina breaks down the state of the race in a new 'confidence' video:

In the key battleground of Ohio, Messina says in the video that early vote turnout in precincts that went for Obama in 2008 is higher than in precincts that went for Sen. John McCain. Republicans, however, say they're outpacing their 2008 early vote effort in Ohio, and predict their performance on Election Day itself will outweigh any Democratic lead in early ballots.

Messina goes through a list of the other key battlegrounds, citing similar early voting and ground game advantages in Iowa, Nevada, Florida, Colorado, Virginia, Wisconsin, North Carolina and New Hampshire.

He doesn't mention states where polls have suggested a tightening between Obama and Romney, including Minnesota and Pennsylvania – two states that seemed a sure thing for Democrats earlier this fall. The Obama campaign recently began airing ads in both states to counter commercials from Romney and his allies.


In other news, a round of polling from Quinnipiac University, the New York Times and CBS News is out this morning:

Obama is ahead of Romney, 50 percent to 45 percent, in Ohio. That's consistent with the 4- or 5-point lead Obama has held in most public polls over the last week.

In Florida, the race is Obama 48 percent, Romney 47 percent. The president is up 2 points in Virginia, 49 percent to Romney's 47 percent. That's also in line with other public polls we've seen showing those states pretty evenly divided, with Obama stronger in Virginia than in Florida.

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  1. doesn't this kind of have blinders on? i didn't see reporting of 'romney up n% in xyz state'... gives the impression everything is fine and dandy in obamerica

    Posted by: Alex | Oct 31, 2012 9:25:48 AM

  2. I heard this on the radio this morning...it makes me cautiously optimistic, but I won't lie, I'm still really worried about the outcome of the election :S

    Posted by: Lucas H | Oct 31, 2012 9:41:56 AM

  3. The numbers here have already been dissected out. In order to believe this is accurate, you have to believe in Ohio, Virginia, and Florida there will be LESS Republicans voting in 2012 than there were Republicans in 2008 voting in Ohio, Virginia, and Florida.

    If you believe that, you're probably a happy camper. Have a nice week.

    Posted by: MarkUs | Oct 31, 2012 9:55:09 AM

  4. I get nervous whenever a Democrat gets confident, but Mitt's exposed lies about Jeep and the auto bailout, refusal to justify his anti-FEMA views, and typically tin-eared response to Sandy (it's just like cleaning up after a football game, kids!) at his "storm relief event" (i.e. blatantly pandering campaign rally) is probably more cause for optimism than any "confidence video."

    Standing with a pile of unwanted canned goods and making light of the storm damage just doesn't look presidential.

    Posted by: Ernie | Oct 31, 2012 10:13:57 AM

  5. Ignoring Alex and Markus, the reality is, if you average out all the polls that have been done in Ohio, Obama is leading, and Romney has NEVER led or even been tied in Ohio. If you look at the numbers that have been done in Florida, Obama is gaining strength in the state that a week or two ago looked almost gone for him, hence the Romney focusing more on the state and Bill going down there to campaign. That state is clearly up for grabs and tracking polls now see Obama having a lead in the state. Obama also leads the early vote in Florida and something like 23% have voted in Florida.

    Virginia's poll are all over the map, but if Obama wins Ohio and Florida, game over. I think VA will go to Romney but it's going to be irrelevant. That's why Romney is now trying to flip states like Pennsylvania and Michigan. Clearly his team knows the internal numbers are against him and he needs other states.

    Posted by: Francis | Oct 31, 2012 10:23:47 AM

  6. Superstorm Sandy and Obama's well planned response and leadership has delivered the election to the President. People are watching. Katrina comes to mind and Sandy is bigger and badder than Katrina by at least a 100 fold and Obama is doing his job. Brilliantly.

    Chris Christie is the GOP's shining star, the man they really wanted to run. He lauded Obama's leadership publicly yesterday, far and wide. Today he will tour his storm ravaged state with the President and it will be a current, living, breathing example of political bipartisanship NO Republican candidate can duplicate or ever has come close to duplicating. No doubt there will be another round of thanks and appreciation by Christie and assurances by Obama of "we're in this together" and the federal government will commit all its resources to rebuilding and helping the people. Romney cannot compete on this level. Instead, he continues collecting canned beans that nobody wants in a campaign that isn't a campaign.

    What's more, he refuses when asked (11+ times) about his commitment to dismantle FEMA. People in Florida and the states slammed by Sandy don't want to hear this, but they are, as Obama ads drive that fact home. He continues to lie (lies that have been publicly exposed by the media) about Jeep moving to China, the old tired welfare meme, and the false narratives about Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, not to mention his "female" problems.

    Usually people have made up their minds by this time, but this election is different. In the Electoral College Obama has never given up his lead. Now, thanks to Sandy and how well he has handled the crises, Obama's leads are growing. Willard's chance of victory now aren't worth a can of donated beans.

    Posted by: Bob R | Oct 31, 2012 10:54:36 AM

  7. LOL. So Romney is out now "flipping states" like Michigan and Pennsylvania. Wow, it's amazing how easy that is to do. What are Obama's numbers in Michigan? Down 13 points? Romney needs to stop flipping them!

    Posted by: MarkUs | Oct 31, 2012 10:56:34 AM

  8. I can't wait for Nov 7th and the celebrations of an Obama victory. I will admit that when an empty suit candidate like Mitt is running almost neck in neck with Obama, I am worried.

    Posted by: andrew | Oct 31, 2012 11:20:23 AM

  9. Perhaps I am too cynical, but Obama's continual lead in Ohio is not large enough to assure than election fraud won't be able to steal the state's vote for Romney. This is the state where there was a lot of evidence of pro-Republican fraud in 2004. It's the state where Diebold touch-screen voting machines are being used -- machines that are subject to manipulation and leave no paper trail. It is a state were Tea Party and conservative voter-suppression groups such as True The Vote will be concentrating their efforts in challenging votes in non-white areas. And it is a state with the Republican governor and attorney general have fought efforts to make the election process more fair and honest, and less susceptible to fraud (e.g., dictating more early voting in rural and suburban counties than in those with cities, in spite of election officials in the latter wanting more early voting). I am normally one who doesn't buy into conspiracy theories, but given all the circumstances and the dishonesty that permeates the Romney campaign, I don't think we can dismiss the possibility of Ohio-centered fraud changing the outcome of the election.

    Posted by: MichaelJ | Oct 31, 2012 12:15:10 PM

  10. Number of registered Republicans is not a belief, it is a fact. The way Evolution is not a belief but Creationism is.

    Posted by: simon | Oct 31, 2012 12:17:48 PM

  11. The election (including the four marriage battles) will be won or lost based on who is more morivated to turn out.

    I remember a local election in which someone who was barely behind in polls ended up winning by about 5 votes.
    What can happen is that when people see their candidate (or their voice of bigotry in the case of voting on marriage rights) barely trailing behind, they feel like their vote really counts and could be the one to push him/it over the edge. The other side gets confident and stays home.

    We can't let that happen.

    Posted by: GregV | Oct 31, 2012 1:04:54 PM

  12. Obama needs only Wisconsin, Ohio, and Nevada (W.O.N.) to win the electoral vote and re-election. Romney has never led in any of them. Wisconsin and Nevada are likely a done deal already, and the latest polls show Obama ahead and gaining in Ohio, Virginia, Iowa and even Florida is looking possible.

    Posted by: Jeff | Oct 31, 2012 1:39:12 PM

  13. Nate Silver has Obama a 77.6% favorite in Ohio, and a bigger favorite in Nevada, New Mexico, Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. With just that, and Obama losing every other state where he isn't as big a favorite, the President would have 271 electoral votes. This model includes states that DO have the President as the favorite by losing anyway, like:

    New Hampshire, where he is a 75.4% favorite.
    Iowa, where he is a 74.4% favorite.
    Virginia, where he is a 61.8% favorite.
    and Colorado, where he is a 60.7% favorite to win.

    Unless there is a big 'October Surprise' over the first five days of November, Romney has already lost this contest.

    Posted by: Rodney Wollam | Oct 31, 2012 4:29:47 PM

  14. Folks, there is only ONE way to be sure President Obama wins: VOTE!

    Posted by: Sandie Chase | Nov 1, 2012 12:44:59 AM

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