1. Alex says

    doesn’t this kind of have blinders on? i didn’t see reporting of ‘romney up n% in xyz state’… gives the impression everything is fine and dandy in obamerica

  2. Lucas H says

    I heard this on the radio this morning…it makes me cautiously optimistic, but I won’t lie, I’m still really worried about the outcome of the election :S

  3. MarkUs says

    The numbers here have already been dissected out. In order to believe this is accurate, you have to believe in Ohio, Virginia, and Florida there will be LESS Republicans voting in 2012 than there were Republicans in 2008 voting in Ohio, Virginia, and Florida.

    If you believe that, you’re probably a happy camper. Have a nice week.

  4. says

    I get nervous whenever a Democrat gets confident, but Mitt’s exposed lies about Jeep and the auto bailout, refusal to justify his anti-FEMA views, and typically tin-eared response to Sandy (it’s just like cleaning up after a football game, kids!) at his “storm relief event” (i.e. blatantly pandering campaign rally) is probably more cause for optimism than any “confidence video.”

    Standing with a pile of unwanted canned goods and making light of the storm damage just doesn’t look presidential.

  5. Francis says

    Ignoring Alex and Markus, the reality is, if you average out all the polls that have been done in Ohio, Obama is leading, and Romney has NEVER led or even been tied in Ohio. If you look at the numbers that have been done in Florida, Obama is gaining strength in the state that a week or two ago looked almost gone for him, hence the Romney focusing more on the state and Bill going down there to campaign. That state is clearly up for grabs and tracking polls now see Obama having a lead in the state. Obama also leads the early vote in Florida and something like 23% have voted in Florida.

    Virginia’s poll are all over the map, but if Obama wins Ohio and Florida, game over. I think VA will go to Romney but it’s going to be irrelevant. That’s why Romney is now trying to flip states like Pennsylvania and Michigan. Clearly his team knows the internal numbers are against him and he needs other states.

  6. Bob R says

    Superstorm Sandy and Obama’s well planned response and leadership has delivered the election to the President. People are watching. Katrina comes to mind and Sandy is bigger and badder than Katrina by at least a 100 fold and Obama is doing his job. Brilliantly.

    Chris Christie is the GOP’s shining star, the man they really wanted to run. He lauded Obama’s leadership publicly yesterday, far and wide. Today he will tour his storm ravaged state with the President and it will be a current, living, breathing example of political bipartisanship NO Republican candidate can duplicate or ever has come close to duplicating. No doubt there will be another round of thanks and appreciation by Christie and assurances by Obama of “we’re in this together” and the federal government will commit all its resources to rebuilding and helping the people. Romney cannot compete on this level. Instead, he continues collecting canned beans that nobody wants in a campaign that isn’t a campaign.

    What’s more, he refuses when asked (11+ times) about his commitment to dismantle FEMA. People in Florida and the states slammed by Sandy don’t want to hear this, but they are, as Obama ads drive that fact home. He continues to lie (lies that have been publicly exposed by the media) about Jeep moving to China, the old tired welfare meme, and the false narratives about Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, not to mention his “female” problems.

    Usually people have made up their minds by this time, but this election is different. In the Electoral College Obama has never given up his lead. Now, thanks to Sandy and how well he has handled the crises, Obama’s leads are growing. Willard’s chance of victory now aren’t worth a can of donated beans.

  7. MarkUs says

    LOL. So Romney is out now “flipping states” like Michigan and Pennsylvania. Wow, it’s amazing how easy that is to do. What are Obama’s numbers in Michigan? Down 13 points? Romney needs to stop flipping them!

  8. andrew says

    I can’t wait for Nov 7th and the celebrations of an Obama victory. I will admit that when an empty suit candidate like Mitt is running almost neck in neck with Obama, I am worried.

  9. MichaelJ says

    Perhaps I am too cynical, but Obama’s continual lead in Ohio is not large enough to assure than election fraud won’t be able to steal the state’s vote for Romney. This is the state where there was a lot of evidence of pro-Republican fraud in 2004. It’s the state where Diebold touch-screen voting machines are being used — machines that are subject to manipulation and leave no paper trail. It is a state were Tea Party and conservative voter-suppression groups such as True The Vote will be concentrating their efforts in challenging votes in non-white areas. And it is a state with the Republican governor and attorney general have fought efforts to make the election process more fair and honest, and less susceptible to fraud (e.g., dictating more early voting in rural and suburban counties than in those with cities, in spite of election officials in the latter wanting more early voting). I am normally one who doesn’t buy into conspiracy theories, but given all the circumstances and the dishonesty that permeates the Romney campaign, I don’t think we can dismiss the possibility of Ohio-centered fraud changing the outcome of the election.

  10. simon says

    Number of registered Republicans is not a belief, it is a fact. The way Evolution is not a belief but Creationism is.

  11. GregV says

    The election (including the four marriage battles) will be won or lost based on who is more morivated to turn out.

    I remember a local election in which someone who was barely behind in polls ended up winning by about 5 votes.
    What can happen is that when people see their candidate (or their voice of bigotry in the case of voting on marriage rights) barely trailing behind, they feel like their vote really counts and could be the one to push him/it over the edge. The other side gets confident and stays home.

    We can’t let that happen.

  12. Jeff says

    Obama needs only Wisconsin, Ohio, and Nevada (W.O.N.) to win the electoral vote and re-election. Romney has never led in any of them. Wisconsin and Nevada are likely a done deal already, and the latest polls show Obama ahead and gaining in Ohio, Virginia, Iowa and even Florida is looking possible.

  13. says

    Nate Silver has Obama a 77.6% favorite in Ohio, and a bigger favorite in Nevada, New Mexico, Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. With just that, and Obama losing every other state where he isn’t as big a favorite, the President would have 271 electoral votes. This model includes states that DO have the President as the favorite by losing anyway, like:

    New Hampshire, where he is a 75.4% favorite.
    Iowa, where he is a 74.4% favorite.
    Virginia, where he is a 61.8% favorite.
    and Colorado, where he is a 60.7% favorite to win.

    Unless there is a big ‘October Surprise’ over the first five days of November, Romney has already lost this contest.