Gay Marriage | News

Where Will Marriage Equality Strike Next? - VIDEO

Baume

Following last week's marriage equality wins, everyone seems to be looking forward to see where equality will strike next.

GainsThe NYT offers its forecast in a major article:

Nine states and Washington, D.C., have now legalized same-sex marriage. Though it remains unpopular in the South, rights campaigners see the potential for legislative gains in Delaware; Hawaii; Illinois; Rhode Island; Minnesota, where they beat back a restrictive amendment last Tuesday; and New Jersey, where Gov. Chris Christie vetoed a bill to legalize same-sex marriage in February.

They also note the split brewing on the right:

The most ardent opponents of same-sex marriage, led by evangelical Christians and the Roman Catholic Church, have vowed to redouble their defense of “natural marriage,” even comparing it to the continuing fight against legal abortion.

So far, these opponents say they do not believe that the national tide has shifted against them but rather that they allowed themselves to be badly outspent in liberal-leaning states.

“We lost by small margins in bastions of deep-blue America,” said Brian S. Brown, president of the National Organization for Marriage. He noted that 30 states have constitutional amendments banning same-sex marriage. He said he expected Indiana to vote on such an amendment in the next year or two, “and we will win.”

But some Republicans question whether their party should try to resist a seemingly unstoppable demographic trend. “The die is cast on this issue,” said Steve Schmidt, who advised the presidential campaigns of Senator John McCain and George W. Bush and has for years urged Republicans to accept same-sex marriage. “Why should we sign a suicide pact with the National Organization for Marriage?” Mr. Schmidt asked, saying the party should instead endorse the principles of federalism and let the states decide the matter.

AFER's Matt Baume gives you his rundown, AFTER THE JUMP...

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Comments

  1. Are Maryland, Washington State and Minnesota REALLY considered "bastions of deep-blue America" or is this more desperate spin by Brian Brown? Maine, I'll grant you, but the rest seem to be swing states at least... though I am Canadian and may not get the past voting histories of specific states. These f-ers will do or say anything to keep burying their heads in the sand to change and progress.

    Posted by: graphicjack | Nov 13, 2012 12:09:00 PM


  2. Why are Catholics and Evangelicals against same sex marriage when it will prevent people from having to get abortions ???

    Posted by: Tom in long beach | Nov 13, 2012 12:14:01 PM


  3. @GraphicJack: This is nothing but spin from Brown and NOM. It is true that all four of those states are left of center for the most part. And in its projections, NOM liked to emphasize that they were fighting a supposed uphill battle by virtue of the political leanings of the particular states that were voting. However, even with these caveats about being outspent in 'blue' states, in pre-election interviews they absolutely rejected the notion that they would lose all four battles.

    And as for Wiggins in Iowa -- that is much, much harder for Brown to spin away.

    Posted by: Rick | Nov 13, 2012 12:33:09 PM


  4. "Are Maryland, Washington State and Minnesota REALLY considered "bastions of deep-blue America" or is this more desperate spin by Brian Brown? "

    It's notable that this 'deep blue' meme was only initiated once it became apparent that anti-equality forces were going to lose. Up until that point, the operating line was this election was a life-or-death moment for NOM et al. This new view is nothing but post-loss spin by them.

    As to the future: Rhode Island seems the most prime candidate. Delaware maybe after that.

    While I'm sure that Christie secretly takes no issue with gay marriage, I would still expect for him to veto marriage equality and insist on subjecting it to vote. He's a politically ambitious politician, and I suspect that he rather likes the new public perception of himself as a populist maverick. I don't think he would sign that ridiculous NOM pledge were he to run in 2016, but he wouldn't be caught dead in marriage equality's corner either.

    Posted by: Nat | Nov 13, 2012 12:42:35 PM


  5. Since most of the civil benefits of marriage are granted by the Federal government, why is this a state's rights issue? I still can't leave my estate to my husband outright without it being taxed to the fullest extent of the law. We will never have social security survival benefits simply by having states vote on it. We are here for full equality under the law!

    Posted by: seth | Nov 13, 2012 12:44:04 PM


  6. my bets are on Rhode Island and Oregon. Maybe Delaware as well. As long as Christie is governor of New Jersey, marriage equality won't happen there.

    Posted by: Grover Underwood | Nov 13, 2012 2:07:43 PM


  7. @Seth
    While the consequences of marriage are largely federal, the states have been the gatekeepers controlling access to it. This is similar to the states' role in licensing drivers.

    With drivers' licenses, the general rule is that your license is good in other states so long as you don't become a resident. That line became problematical with interracial marriage, inducing the Supreme Court to set limits on the states' powers to ignore out-of-state marriages.

    I keep waiting for someone to tell me (and it will probably have to be SCOTUS) whether the Federal government will be bound to recognize a state's marriage license when the recipients subsequently reside in a state that prohibits that license.

    Posted by: Rich | Nov 13, 2012 2:39:19 PM


  8. Andy you fail to mention the Mormons what are the main force behind the Boy Scout problem and the people that made proposition 8 work.
    They arn shirking all Publicity but they're still in there

    Posted by: Bob | Nov 13, 2012 3:03:13 PM


  9. Being from Delaware, delawareans are incredibly apathetic when it comes to voting ...our population as a state just broke a million in the past 6 years and of that population majority are pro gay marriage as is our congress. If it is put to a vote in our state on an off presidential election year it will be incredibly tough to get people to the polls. Fortunately this is true for the voters against gay marriage. As a small state we have had to watch anti gay marriage commercials from Maryland and New Jersey come on as local commercials I look forward to the day DE PA and VA pass equality till then our TV's will continue to be marred by such hateful advertisements

    Posted by: Patrick | Nov 13, 2012 4:28:10 PM


  10. Being from Delaware, delawareans are incredibly apathetic when it comes to voting ...our population as a state just broke a million in the past 6 years and of that population majority are pro gay marriage as is our congress. If it is put to a vote in our state on an off presidential election year it will be incredibly tough to get people to the polls. Fortunately this is true for the voters against gay marriage. As a small state we have had to watch anti gay marriage commercials from Maryland and New Jersey come on as local commercials I look forward to the day DE PA and VA pass equality till then our TV's will continue to be marred by such hateful advertisements

    Posted by: Patrick | Nov 13, 2012 4:28:12 PM


  11. Grover, Oregon previously amended its constitution to ban marriage rights for gay and lesbian couples. There is talk about a repeal of that amendment being placed on the 2014 ballot, though off-year elections are tricky because the composition of the electorate tends to be more conservative. In any event, I would hope and expect that several states will have enacted equality before Oregon, including Minnesota, Illinois and Hawaii in addition to those you've mentioned.

    Posted by: Patric | Nov 13, 2012 6:23:55 PM


  12. Obama needs to get some balls and do something about gay marriage at Federal level. He can't claim to support us but then do nothing. He says he won't "force gay marriage on the states" but you can bet he would have forced this issue if it was something involving race.

    Either you support us or you don't. Supporters don't stand by and let us suffer.

    Posted by: Icebloo | Nov 13, 2012 7:49:10 PM


  13. Maybe fat bloater Christie will have a heart attack and then New Jersey can get a decent person as Governor who will have the balls to support gay marriage.

    Christie is disgusting. Why would we want him as President when he's ignoring the rights of so many people just to further his own political ambitions ? We just had one idiot Republican like that and we rejected him. His name was Mitt Romney.

    Posted by: Icebloo | Nov 13, 2012 7:53:14 PM


  14. Oregon has a long history of voting on one anti-gay ballot measure after another: 1988, 1992, 1994, 2000, and 2004. Only the 1988 and 2004 measures won. In 2004 Oregon was the state that had the narrowest margin for defeat for our side on a DOMA measure (57% voted to enact a constitutional DOMA.)

    One of the reasons why the lesbian and gay community has been reluctant to go this route is simply ballot fatigue. Many older lesbians and gays are simply exhausted from having to go thru this emotional wringer again and again. I'm afraid the leadership on this one will have to come from the younger generation of lesbians and gays, and from our straight allies, since the older generation is pretty emotionally scarred. 1992 was particularly bad - a lesbian and a disabled gay man were murdered during the campaign, and the pastor of the Portland MCC aptly described the climate as an "emotional Sarajevo."

    But I am confident that the time has come at last for us to return to the ballot. It has been a number of years, and I think we are ready for this now that Washington approved same-sex marriage, and California will shortly have SSM again (assuming things go well at SCOTUS.)

    Posted by: BZ | Nov 14, 2012 8:55:58 AM


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