Ari Ezra Waldman | DOMA | Gay Marriage | Law - Gay, LGBT | News | Proposition 8 | Supreme Court

DOMA and Prop 8 at the Supreme Court: 8 Things to Watch For

By ARI EZRA WALDMAN

Supreme-court-justicesThis is the last week of the 2012-2013 term and today is another "Decision Day," where the Court will release some of its still pending opinions after 10am. There are several undecided cases, including a groundbreaking one on the Voting Rights Act, but the LGBT community is waiting -- always eagerly, sometimes impatiently -- for the Court to rule on the fate of DOMA and Prop 8. 

Last week, I took a longer view, arguing that the legal landscape in the post-DOMA and post-Prop 8 world will be more complex. I argued that jurisdictional holdings would give us positive, but unsatisfying results. I then discussed the lingering questions for federal marriage rights for gay couples even after DOMA is erased. And I touched on the implications for those who are in civil unions and registered domestic partnerships.

In anticipation of word from One First Street this week -- if not today, then Thursday -- keep these 8 things in mind:

CONTINUED, AFTER THE JUMP...

2doma_scotus1. Standing and Jurisdiction: Are the cases properly before the Court? Remember, the question in the Prop 8 case is whether the California citizens who wrote Prop 8 (the "proponents") had standing to appeal Judge Walker's original ruling declaring Prop 8 unconstitutional. The questions in the DOMA case are (a) whether Edie Windsor, having won at the Second Circuit, can both win and appeal, and (b) whether House Republicans are properly taking the role of defending DOMA. If the answer to any of those questions is NO, then the cases get tossed and the Court doesn't have to rule on anything substantive. We still win, sort of.

2. Scrutiny: The first substantive question is about the level of scrutiny, which is like asking: OK, before we see if you passed the test, we have to determine the passing grade. It's obviously a lot easier to pass when all you have to do is get a 50/100, and harder when you need a 90. If the Court takes the unlikely step of agreeing with President Obama (and rational legal thought) that discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation demands heightened scrutiny" (say, an 80 on the test), then look for DOMA and Prop 8 to be declared unconstitutional. Notably, denying already married couples federal benefits and preventing them from marrying in the first place are both so irrationally ridiculous, look for a substantive holding -- if the Court gets there -- that rejects the laws under any standard.

3. Equal Protection: This will be the basis for any substantive holding: that DOMA and Prop 8 fail to treat similar people equally for no good reason. We know this argument well, and even the Prop 8 Proponents' main witness, David Blankenhorn, recanted his views and now agrees that all couples, gay or heterosexual, should be treated equally. One thing to look out for in this part of the decision is the fate of the "slutty heterosexual" argument. This is the argument that we need marriage only for opposite-sex couples because they are the only ones that can have "accidental pregnancies." Gay couples cannot. The logic of that as a rationale for denying gay couples the honor of marriage doesn't pass the laugh test, but it is a notable argument because it turns around the stereotype of the sex-crazed gay man and places that noose around the neck of heterosexuals!

4. Breadth of the Decisions: How far did the Court go? It could get rid of DOMA entirely, or keep us in this strange state of flux where DOMA is ok in some places and unconstitutional in others. In Perry, the Court could restrict its decision to California, or it could reach those seven other states that having "everything but" marriage, or it could hand down a national right to marry. In addition to this narrow way of looking at the decision -- what lawyers call the "holding" -- take note of the Court's language and its statements, or lack thereof, touching on gay equality and membership in American society. These are the words, coupled with the holdings, that will serve as the bases for future victories. The broader the language -- "Our system of government does not countenance discrimination on the basis of status," for example -- the stronger precedent it will be in the future.

5. Federalism: Did the Court narrow its holding by focusing solely on the violence done by DOMA to the concept of federalism? DOMA, by creating for the first time a federal definition of marriage, took away power that is traditionally and exclusively left to the States. The Court could find DOMA unconstitutional on this ground, but it would lessen the case's impact on future gay rights litigation.

6. Amici: Did the myriad "friends of the court" briefs have any impact? Sometimes, we see direct citations to amicus briefs and sometimes we see the Court learning from the arguments, data, and perspectives offered by amici. It is worth noting if data provided by the Williams Institute, a gay community research institution at UCLA, made it into the decision, for example. That will go a long way to telling us what the Court ultimately decided.

7. Politics: To what extent did our recent political victories -- from the 13 states with the freedom to marry to the wave of public officials and senators that endorsed marriage equality -- play a role in the decision? On the one hand, conservatives could use our new-found support as a justification for not getting involved, preferring to allow the political process, which they can say we are winning, to run its course. Remember, during argument, the Chief Justice sarcastically noted that senators were "falling over themselves to" support us. (Of course, that argument misses the point that after a few more blue-ish states, the marriage equality state-by-state whistle stop tour runs into the brick wall of arch conservative states.) On the other hand, fence-sitters could see our political victories as cover for making a pro-equality decision without being too far afield from public opinion.

8. Who: Who were the players that made the majorities? A 5-4 decision with Kennedy siding with the liberals suggests something very different than the reverse or a 6-3 decision that includes the Chief Justice. Was Kennedy influenced by his previous gay rights decisions, even though they were based on different parts of the Constitution? Was the Chief moved by his gay family members and the fact that he is going to be sitting on the Court for decades, long after this issue becomes a non-issue? Note the justices' divide at the beginning and you can learn a lot about what you're about to read.

Of course, i will be doing all of this thinking for you. Whether the decision comes down today or Thursday, keep coming back to Towleroad for summary and analysis.

***

Follow me on Twitter: @ariezrawaldman

Ari Ezra Waldman is the Associate Director of the Institute for Information Law and Policy and a professor at New York Law School and is concurrently getting his PhD at Columbia University in New York City. He is a 2002 graduate of Harvard College and a 2005 graduate of Harvard Law School. Ari writes weekly posts on law and various LGBT issues.

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Comments

  1. Thanks for the summary. What time are the decisions expected?

    Posted by: Rikon Snow | Jun 24, 2013 7:17:24 AM


  2. Too many typos to read- I have to quit.

    Point 3 - the the straight people should be the neck of straight people

    Point 4 The precent of the future - do you mean precedent?

    Point 6 - It is worth nothing....Williams institute - don't you mean "worth Noting"

    C'mon, Ari. This is important.

    Posted by: Rob | Jun 24, 2013 7:29:05 AM


  3. Thanks Ari Ezra ! Whatever happens your analysis has always been thought- full and clear. Great work Towleroad !

    Posted by: Gilbert | Jun 24, 2013 7:35:22 AM


  4. It always amazes me how little comments Ari's columns get, yet how many a snippet about Lady Gaga or Madonna or Cher seem to garner.

    This is a huge event/decision that will affect our lives and future generations forever, yet hardly anyone commenting here...?

    The topical vapidity of my gay brethren baffles me.

    Posted by: johnny | Jun 24, 2013 8:00:17 AM


  5. Re Perry, can't the court also decide that only marriage states get marriage?

    Posted by: rick scatorum | Jun 24, 2013 8:08:01 AM


  6. The decisions of the day are usually released by 10 AM. SCOTUSBlog will be streaming live from the court.

    I bet they schedule more days this week to release the remaining cases. Don't count on the DOMA and California being released today.

    Posted by: MikeBoston | Jun 24, 2013 8:48:36 AM


  7. @Johnny

    Most sites that do not require people to be identified, (like Towleroad) get a few thoughtful comments by intelligent people, but most remarks are from folks who like to see their words in print. Even the most obtuse realize that comments like "I can't believe she wore those shoes with that robe" are not really appropriate for a topic of this gravitas.

    Posted by: Voet | Jun 24, 2013 8:48:58 AM


  8. And Ari, as always, your posts are excellent and educational.

    Posted by: MikeBoston | Jun 24, 2013 8:49:55 AM


  9. And Ari, as always, your posts are excellent and educational.

    Posted by: MikeBoston | Jun 24, 2013 8:49:59 AM


  10. Ari, you mention 13 states that have marriage equality, but I think it's only 12 (plus the District of Columbia). Is DC considered to be a state for these purposes?

    Posted by: Jere | Jun 24, 2013 8:54:40 AM


  11. Thanks for the bullet-summary; that was really helpful.

    It can't be lost on the justices that suggesting the decision be left to the states translates into some people never seeing equal treatment under law.

    I want it all; I want a nationwide decision, & I want language in the opinion that says, stop putting civil rights up for popular vote!

    Posted by: Pete N SFO | Jun 24, 2013 8:56:20 AM


  12. I will be glued to SCOTUSBLOG today at 10AM EST. And I will not expect any of these issues to be decided upon. My only inkling that it could be today is because of Scalia's temper tantrum this weekend. Especially since justices aren't supposed to discuss current cases, this makes me think some definitive or decisive action has taken place. But they may have decided but are still writing the opinions. It will happen when it happens, but I sure as hell hope that it is today.

    Posted by: P | Jun 24, 2013 9:19:01 AM


  13. "The topical vapidity of my gay brethren baffles me."

    And a jellybean story preceeding this one is impossible to fathom.

    Posted by: UFFDA | Jun 24, 2013 9:22:46 AM


  14. I bet they don't rule until Thursday. They will wait until the very last (chicken sh*tted) moment and they will dodge both issues.

    Posted by: Mike Ryan | Jun 24, 2013 9:43:33 AM


  15. Thanks you very much Ari, I always read your analysis :)And for all Your hard work on issues!

    Posted by: nn | Jun 24, 2013 10:14:38 AM


  16. I've said before anything short of a sweeping decision will trigger many more instances of lawsuits against individual states. It seems aside from DOMA even, that in order for a legally married gay couple to even be able to travel through states that don't recognize them as a couple would be a "risk" to their union. What happens if a persons family intervenes medically in one of the non-recognizing states. I don't think it should be a matter of whether or not we go to a "state by state" basis as that will set individual states up for legal battles from the couple from a recognizing state. Won't it also affect where a legally recognized couple wants to retire and spend those dollars.

    Posted by: Hey Darlin' | Jun 24, 2013 10:15:20 AM


  17. Thank You, Ari!

    I'm still baffled by any of the "State by State" arguments. That States have gone out of their way to "not recognize gay marriages from other States" seems to be the most useless heel-dragging idiocy.

    Posted by: Little Kiwi | Jun 24, 2013 10:25:48 AM


  18. OK - big change - now the jelly bean story is way past this one. But it wasn't earlier.

    Posted by: UFFDA | Jun 24, 2013 10:26:04 AM


  19. No decision today. Looks like Thursday is the next day scheduled for decisions.

    Posted by: MikeBoston | Jun 24, 2013 10:29:03 AM


  20. Check out this awesome video for marriage equality while we all wait for the supreme court to give us an answer on DOMA and Prop 8....https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=g9sigK4BJXo

    Posted by: Ron Jones | Jun 24, 2013 11:11:44 AM


  21. Thank you Ari, I couldn't survive this whole judicial thing without you

    Posted by: Carmen | Jun 24, 2013 12:14:56 PM


  22. Rob, don't be such an ass. I think most of us can figure out what is being said. (I was going to throw in a typo for you but I thought you would enjoy it too much)

    Posted by: BCNKC | Jun 24, 2013 1:13:18 PM


  23. I love you, Ari. Depending on how things go on Thursday, will you marry me?

    Posted by: Greg | Jun 24, 2013 7:29:18 PM


  24. The Court will announce opinions on Tuesday around 10am (Eastern time). They could also render decisions on Wed and/or Thur and/or Fri. Since 5 came down today and there are 6 left, they could come out on one day. Given the 3 major ones re DOMA, Prop 8 and Voting Rights Act, easily these could be split along a couple of days, particularly if there are lengthy or multiple dissents and the justices want to read them from the bench.

    Posted by: Lou | Jun 24, 2013 9:54:12 PM


  25. Thanks for the perspective, Ari. These explanations are helpful and thought-provoking. Keep up the good work.

    Posted by: Tyler | Jun 25, 2013 12:42:29 AM


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