Elections | Nate Silver | News | Republican Party

Nate Silver Says GOP Has a 60 Percent Shot at Retaking the Senate: VIDEO

Screen Shot 2014-03-24 at 6.07.45 AM

Gay statistician Nate Silver, who successfully predicted all 50 states in the 2012 election, is now forecasting that the Republican Party has about a 60% chance at retaking the Senate in the 2014 midterms.

Screen Shot 2014-03-24 at 5.53.08 AM 1Silver, who recently launched his own “data journalism” site FiveThirtyEight, spoke with ABC’s Jon Karl about what the GOP’s path of least resistance will look like later this year.  

Even more alarming, Silver predicts the GOP has a 30% chance of "winning big," - up to 11 seats. Here's hoping the wins won't be of the Tea Party variety if this scenario plays out. 

Watch Silver crunch the numbers, AFTER THE JUMP


ABC US News | ABC Business News

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  1. Ah oh...someone is getting fat.

    All the obesity-induced estrogen is clouding his better judgement.


    Posted by: AllBeefPatty | Mar 24, 2014 8:51:55 AM

  2. Oh Nate...... You are MUCH too young to be sporting that comb over.......

    Posted by: tabsea | Mar 24, 2014 8:59:36 AM

  3. I didn't realize the article was about Nate Silvers appearance. Grow up.

    Posted by: KaWohi | Mar 24, 2014 9:13:06 AM

  4. I'm all for recognizing the achievements of my fellow gays, but must he be referred to as a gay statistician?
    How about renowned statistician? Just seems like an odd way to refer to someone's sexuality. Gay doesn't need to modify every facet of a gay persons life. To me that's equality.

    Posted by: jvc nyc | Mar 24, 2014 9:13:40 AM

  5. It doesn't really matter who wins the Senate.

    The US is not a democracy by any stretch of the imagination. Our absurd 2 party system is utterly worthless. Both parties represent corporations. Not the public.

    Posted by: MaryM | Mar 24, 2014 9:16:19 AM

  6. Say it ain't so oh sexy statician!

    Posted by: Snownova | Mar 24, 2014 9:21:46 AM

  7. Things will change when all the Tea Party nuts start spouting "legitimate rape" comments.

    Posted by: Ready | Mar 24, 2014 9:27:44 AM

  8. with supreme court retirements coming up, i have to believe people--especially women--will keep the gop from taking the senate.
    too important.

    Posted by: woody | Mar 24, 2014 9:31:51 AM

  9. what WOODY said x1000!!!

    Posted by: disgusted american | Mar 24, 2014 9:40:09 AM

  10. "The US is not a democracy by any stretch of the imagination."

    Of course it's not. The U.S. is a republic.

    I see your hysteria is matched by your fatuity.

    Posted by: crispy | Mar 24, 2014 9:42:41 AM

  11. Hmm, I thought it would have been a higher percentage actually. The Koch Bros are doing an effective job poisoning people on the Affordable Care Act. People love to vote against their own interests.

    Posted by: Gregoire | Mar 24, 2014 9:47:53 AM

  12. People have NEVER voted for their senator based upon what they want to happen at the Supreme Court. The average person just isn't smart enough to connect those dots.

    Posted by: Bill | Mar 24, 2014 10:10:49 AM

  13. People have NEVER voted for their senator based upon what they want to happen at the Supreme Court. The average person just isn't smart enough to connect those dots.

    Posted by: Bill | Mar 24, 2014 10:10:49 AM

  14. if the democratic party could turn out the vote in 2012 by appealing to outrage over voter suppression laws, there's no reason they can't expend a little effort and get out the black and hispanic vote for the midterms. the ball is in their court.

    Posted by: ascanius1 | Mar 24, 2014 10:15:25 AM

  15. One just needs to remember to vote.

    Posted by: WayneMPLS | Mar 24, 2014 10:57:33 AM

  16. The democrats will use this threat to fund-raise. They are working to turn out their base in mid-term which was their usual problem like in 2010. It is just 60%, not like the 99% that Mitt will lose.

    Posted by: tkinsc aka tinkerbell | Mar 24, 2014 11:41:17 AM

  17. Keep pushing gun control, amnesty, and mass immigration, Democrats. It's working out so well. Oh, and keep demonizing white middle class voters… that's the recipe for a sure win. Yay team!

    Posted by: enchantra | Mar 24, 2014 12:09:43 PM

  18. Don't sit this one out, people. Do whatever you have to do to get your friends/neighbors to the polls. Don't let this happen. We've made too much progress to be set back now, however temporary. Please VOTE!

    Posted by: Larry | Mar 24, 2014 12:15:02 PM

  19. If the Democrats did ANYTHING that actually helped average Americans (like raising the minimum wage while they could or actual health care reform instead of the Frankenstein of a bill that Obamacare turned out to be) they would stand a chance at permanent majorities in the House and Senate.

    HOWEVER, they are too deep into the pockets of lobbyists and special interests, just like the GOP but only slightly different. Despite the propaganda ('Get Covered' and similar nonsense), people are still going to be resistant to purchase insurance from a still unregulated industry, at least when it comes to cost.

    Posted by: John M | Mar 24, 2014 12:25:03 PM

  20. Considering this is a nation that elected George W. Bush twice to the presidency, my confidence in my fellow Americans is set extremely low.

    Posted by: Peter | Mar 24, 2014 12:28:06 PM

  21. and here comes impeachment

    Posted by: jaker | Mar 24, 2014 1:27:34 PM

  22. Sure they have a chance to win.

    But the TEa PArty will knock out the folks who could have won in the primaries and then lose in the General most likely.

    Posted by: Cam | Mar 24, 2014 1:30:10 PM

  23. It probably won't matter much which party will control the senate. ENDA will not pass in the near future. The marriage equality fights are now all happening in courts.

    Posted by: simon | Mar 24, 2014 1:42:59 PM

  24. What the hell difference will it make if they're not Tea Party senators? It's not like regular GOP politicians stand up to them.

    Posted by: BobN | Mar 24, 2014 2:04:29 PM

  25. Newlyweds won't get the Eisenhower 1950's with these Republicans.

    Posted by: John | Mar 24, 2014 3:28:31 PM

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