• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Skip to footer
  • Advertise
  • Contact Us
  • About Towleroad
  • Towleroad on Social Media
  • Privacy Policy

Towleroad Gay News

Gay Blog Towleroad: More than gay news | gay men

  • Travel
  • Sports
  • Law/Justice
  • Celebrities
  • Republicans
  • Madonna
  • Books
  • Men
  • Trans Rights
  • Royals
  • Monkeypox
  • Sophia Bush’s girlfriend ‘proud’ the actress has opened up about coming out as queer
  • Mel B declares she’ll ‘always be open’ when it comes to her sexuality!
  • Megan Thee Stallion being sued for ‘forcing cameraman watch her having lesbian sex!’

Nate Silver ‘A Bit Terrified’ by Current Polling Landscape

Andy Towle October 15, 2012

Silver

NYT election forecaster Nate Silver, who has got Obama currently at a 63.3% chance of winning, looks at the bog of state and national polls coming in for the last week and says it's going to take more data to decode:

Anyone in my business who is not a bit terrified by this set of facts is either lying to himself — or he doesn't know what he's doing.

There are three ways out of the stalemate. First, the state polls could move toward Mr. Romney. Second, the national polls could move toward Mr. Obama. Or third, we could receive more emphatic evidence that the difference between state polls and national polls in fact reflects a potential difference between the popular vote and the Electoral College. (This latter case, importantly, would require evidence that Mr. Romney was running well in noncompetitive states along with evidence that Mr. Obama was performing well in swing states.)

He says an ABC News poll today could be of some help with the forecast:

The forecast does not yet account, however, for a national poll conducted for The Washington Post and ABC News, which was released early on Monday morning. That poll gave Mr. Obama a lead of 3 percentage points in the national race among likely voters, and a 7-point lead among registered voters, both figures tying for his largest of the year in that survey.

We will see what the rest of Monday's polling data brings, but The Washington Post and ABC News poll has the potential to be influential on the forecast, in the same way that a Pew Research poll showing a sharp break to Mr. Romney was last week.

Topics: Business, News More Posts About: 2012 election, Barack Obama, Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, Mitt Romney, Nate Silver, Nate Silver, News

Related Posts
  • Netflix Unveils ‘Rustin’ Trailer Featuring Colman Domingo as Bayard Rustin
  • Ted Cruz claims Buttigieg running against Biden because his ‘cadence’ is ‘mimicking Barack Obama’
  • These are the ‘dumbest’ and ‘silliest’ things that ‘triggered’ far-right culture warriors in 2022: podcast
  • Mel B declares she’ll ‘always be open’ when it comes to her sexuality!

    Mel B declares she’ll ‘always be open’ when it comes to her sexuality!

    Published by BANG Showbiz English Mel B will “always be open” when it comes to her sexuality. The Spice Girls singer, 48, who reunited with her bandmates including the group's ex-singer Victoria Beckham for the fashion …Read More »
  • Megan Thee Stallion being sued for ‘forcing cameraman watch her having lesbian sex!’

    Megan Thee Stallion being sued for ‘forcing cameraman watch her having lesbian sex!’

    Published by BANG Showbiz English Megan Thee Stallion is being sued for allegedly creating a hostile work environment and forcing her cameraman to watch her having lesbian sex. The 29-year-old ‘Savage' rapper faces the salacious claims …Read More »
  • Mean Girls star Jonathan Bennett recalls the moment his life ‘changed forever’

    Mean Girls star Jonathan Bennett recalls the moment his life ‘changed forever’

    Published by BANG Showbiz English Jonathan Bennett's life was “changed forever” by his role in ‘Mean Girls'. The 42-year-old actor starred as heartthrob Aaron Samuels in the 2004 cult classic – which followed Lindsay Lohan, Rachel …Read More »
  • Sir Elton John sent Lance Bass gift basket to celebrate coming out

    Sir Elton John sent Lance Bass gift basket to celebrate coming out

    Published by BANG Showbiz English Sir Elton John sent Lance Bass a gift basket after he came out as gay. The 44-year-old NSYNC star revealed the legendary singer showed his support when Lance decided to reveal …Read More »
Previous Post: « Felix Baumgartner’s LEGO Jump Was Also Successful: VIDEO
Next Post: Brad Pitt’s Chanel No5 Ad: ‘Wherever I Go, There You Are’ – VIDEO »

Primary Sidebar

Most Recent

  • Sophia Bush’s girlfriend ‘proud’ the actress has opened up about coming out as queer

    Sophia Bush’s girlfriend ‘proud’ the actress has opened up about coming out as queer

  • Mel B declares she’ll ‘always be open’ when it comes to her sexuality!

    Mel B declares she’ll ‘always be open’ when it comes to her sexuality!

  • Megan Thee Stallion being sued for ‘forcing cameraman watch her having lesbian sex!’

    Megan Thee Stallion being sued for ‘forcing cameraman watch her having lesbian sex!’

  • Mean Girls star Jonathan Bennett recalls the moment his life ‘changed forever’

    Mean Girls star Jonathan Bennett recalls the moment his life ‘changed forever’

  • Sir Elton John sent Lance Bass gift basket to celebrate coming out

    Sir Elton John sent Lance Bass gift basket to celebrate coming out

  • Relationship status influences heterosexual women’s sexual prejudice towards lesbians

    Relationship status influences heterosexual women’s sexual prejudice towards lesbians

  • JoJo Siwa had a challenge transitioning to new grown-up image

    JoJo Siwa had a challenge transitioning to new grown-up image

  • Liz Hurley defends lesbian sex scene in new movie that was directed by her son

    Liz Hurley defends lesbian sex scene in new movie that was directed by her son

Partner Links

  • Happy One Year Anniversary, Convicted Felon!!!
    On this day, twelve short months ago: "Donald Trump became the […]
  • Nicola Peltz felt like Victoria Beckham ‘ruined’ her 2022 wedding to Brooklyn
    As we’ve discussed, it’s not like David and Victoria Beckham woke […]
  • “Todd & Julie Chrisley are officially out of prison after their pardons” links
    Todd & Julie Chrisley have officially been released from prison after […]
  • Friday News Round-Up: Martina Navratilova & Chris Evert; Lukas Gage; Rosie O’Donnell; Madonna & more!
    After 50 Years, Martina Navratilova and Chris Evert’s Rivalry Has Morphed […]
  • Remains of the Day (05/30)
    Attitude: Gay athlete Jake Williamson breaks HYROX world record in men’s open […]

Most Commented

Social

Twitter @tlrd | Facebook | Instagram @tlrd

About

  • Advertise
  • Contact Us
  • About Towleroad
  • Towleroad on Social Media
  • Privacy Policy
[towleroadmr] [towleroadtn]

Footer

Ptown Hacks 2018

Read

  • Travel
  • Film
  • Law – LGBT Rights
  • Columns
  • Specials

About

  • Advertise
  • Contact Us
  • About Towleroad
  • Towleroad on Social Media
  • Privacy Policy

Copyright © 2025 · Log in

×
×