Shock Poll: Cuomo Leads Paladino by Just 6 in NY Gov Race


Politico's Maggie Haberman reports on some new numbers in the NY gubernatorial election, which show Tea Party extremist Carl Paladino to be a growing threat:

"Democratic gubernatorial nominee Andrew Cuomo, who had led the GOP field by thirty points for most of the year, is now leading Republican rival Carl Paladino by just six points among likely voters, an astonishing new Quinnipiac University poll shows. Among the most surprising numbers in the survey  is that 49 percent of independents prefer Paladino, compared to 43 percent for Cuomo, an inverse of the topline number. It's the first head-to-head of the general election, and Q's first likely-voter survey.The margin of error is 3.6 percent, and Rick Lazio, who is currently the Conservative Party nominee but whose intentions are unclear, was not included in the survey. Nonetheless, the numbers show that Cuomo is almost certainly going to have to end his 'Rose Garden' strategy and start attacking and defining Paladino."

Paladino, as you may recall, opposes gay marriage, abortion even in the case of rape, and the Park51 project.

Here's the poll.


  1. jason says

    Cuomo is feeling the heat from the backlash against Obama from the GLBT community. When Democrats act in a spineless fashion and fail to deliver to the GLBT community, it sets off a chain reaction of disillusionment.

    Let’s not forget the total inaction of New York Democrats over the years in terms of gay marriage. Democrats have dominated New York but have done fuck all for GLBT rights.

  2. DL says

    This poll is ignoring one very big thing: The mainstream Republican who lost the GOP primary (Rick Lazio) won the Conservative party nomination and is probably going to get enough votes from moderates to drop Palladino by a few points, so they’re making things look closer than they really are.

    FiveThirtyEight has more about a poll that made the same error.

  3. Glenn says

    “Total inaction of New York Democrats over the years in terms of gay marriage.” Huh? It was only once the Dems took over the Senate that the gay marriage bill even got put to a vote. And while it was obviously disappointing that only 24 out of 32 Dems voted for it, ZERO out of 30 republicans did. I mean, let’s at least deal with actual facts here.

    On the poll: Any poll that doesn’t have Lazio in it right now is falsely inflating Paladino’s support. Period. Read Nate Silver if you want more details. It may very well be that this will wind up as a close race, but I’m not yet convinced of that.

  4. BG says

    Is America going insane!? From a European perspective it looks like that. These rightwing lunatics will run your country to the ground. Now even in NY! You don’t punish the Democrats by electing something worse and pure evil. Try a different approach. Why not go into politics? Be to the Democrats what the Tea Party is to the Republicans, a new true progressive political movement.

  5. Brains says

    America is just confirming, by every odd action of the electorate, that it is a country of sub-literates and bigots. Which includes, a number of our nutty clueless anti-Obama posters on this board.

    If anyone thinks sitting at home and refusing to vote, or voting Republican is the way to: you need a psychiatric evaluation!

  6. says

    No matter how disappointed you are with the Democrats, you’d better get your ass in gear to minimize the 2010 GOP takeover.

    The Teabaggers & Religious Right are now firmly in control of the Republican Party. If you think they will not take this opportunity to set back gay rights for a generation or more, you are a fool.

  7. Scott says

    “Let’s not forget the total inaction of New York Democrats over the years in terms of gay marriage. Democrats have dominated New York but have done fuck all for GLBT rights.”

    ?!!??!?!?!?!? W T F

    It is ignorance like this that makes me want to punch a kitten!

    The national, general problem is not “Democrats” in general — it is conservative Democrats and supposed moderate Republicans banding together to thwart everything. The response to that is to elect better and more progressive Democrats — NOT to throw a hissy fit and let batshit insane Teabaggers control everything.

    As far as NY goes… Hell. No. Paladino will be elected over my cold dead body. This teabagger bullshit may fly elsewhere, but we are NOT getting a teabagger governor. This is, at worst, a Rockefeller/Pataki/Bloomberg kind of Republican state — Paladino JUST won’t do.

    The NY Democrats JUST obtained control of the state senate after, what, decades? So they have only had a chance to work on gay rights for a few years — during which a tiny handful of CONSERVATIVE BIGOT DEMOCRATS thwarted progress. So the answer is to hand the state over to teabaggers??? Are. You. Fucking. Kidding? No, really, are you?

  8. Vlad says

    Yes, America is going insane. It is going to get worse as Americans are unable to accept that the country is in decline and that there is a need for massive reforms in domestic and foreign policy. Do not underestimate the power of willful ignorance.

  9. says

    I’d be scared to death if I believed this poll, and I don’t care what the Democrats have or have not done, this insane man can NOT be allowed to win. He’s absolutely certifiable. He’s not a Republican, he’s crazy in the head. I don’t believe this poll is accurate, I don’t believe the race will be close. If it is, I will be the first to admit that America has jumped the shark.

  10. ratbastard says


    The Democrats AND Republicans both suck. The major political parties in the UK and Euroland also equally suck.

    Does it occur to you there are reasons that have NOTHING to do with gay issues that cause MANY Americans to dislike what the Dems have done over the past 2 years?

    *Is it shocking to you to realize MOST Americans DO NOT want to PAY MORE for their health insurance (which they will) under ObamaCare?

    *Is it disturbing to you to realize MOST Americans are angry at the economic situation and how it is not improving for most people?

    *Do you know ANYTHING about local NY politics? Are you aware NY has been basically a one party state for many years, effectively under the control of liberal Democrats, mostly from NYC not NY state, and they have proven to be very corrupt, running the state into the ground?

    The Democrats pretend to care about the ‘poor’ and disenfranchised. Fuck anyone in the middle, which is most Americans, gay or straight. They bleed dry those in the middle to redistribute wealth to the so-called poor…the ‘poor’ who right now get everything for free or heavily subsidized, including healthcare.

    The Republicans ostensibly care first and foremost about business….big business. They certainly don’t give a fuck about the average working slob, whose wages have been statistically at best stagnant for 35-40 years. But in reality BOTH the ‘liberal’ Democrats and ‘conservative’ Republicans are totally in bed with big business and multinational corporations, who are running the U.S. and other nations into the ground with ‘free’ trade (i.e. slave labor NO western worker can compete with) and globalization, which has resulted in 30 years of uninterupted trade deficits, at least as far as the U.S. is concerned, mostly with China. 30 fucking years of trade deficits….China still fucking with currency manipulation, etc., Republicans AND Democrats are responsible for this shit. Likewise, all major political parties in Canada, the EU and UK are guilty.

    These things, and MANY more to long to list, are why a lot of Americans (and non-Americans) are disgusted with the status quo.

  11. ratbastard says

    I should clarify liberal Democrats AND liberal Republicans (A.K.A. RHINOS) have controlled NYC, NY state, and other northeastern states for many years. What we got after all these years, gay and straight alike, is high taxes, high state fees for everything under the sun, excessively regulation of every day life, i.e. a nanny state, a ridiculous number of poor, uneducated immigrants, illegal and legal, who migrate to certain states not because there are jobs for unskilled workers, but because these states (like mine Mass. and NY) provide very generous social services and don’t differentiate between a legal citizen who has paid into the system and an illegal or recently arrived legal citizen who hasn’t paid into the system.

    The whole thing is fucking ridiculous.

  12. TampaZeke says

    RATBASTARD, did you consider G W Bush and his Republican Senate and Republican House for most of the eight years of his presidency LIBERAL?

    Please explain to us how it was liberals and Democrats who ran our country into the ground when they weren’t in charge for the eight years preceding. Don’t forget that the economy collapsed under BUSH. HE was the one who signed TARP. He didn’t do that because the economy was rosy.

    I think the Democrats have proven themselves to be spineless, directionsless and ineffective but for you to claim that the Democrats are responsible for the collapse of our country and that the Republicans are the answer is just about the most brain-dead batshit crazy thing that I’ve ever heard.

  13. ratbastard says

    Can you READ TAMPAZEKE? I CLEARLY stated BOTH Democrats AND Republicans SUCK. As far as NY state is concerned, it has been controlled for a very long time by liberal Democrat and Republicans (RINOs)and they’ve run NY state into the ground….Albany is VERY corrupt.

    …And no actually, conservative or so-called conservative Republicans and Democrats also both SUCK. I listed a few of the reasons why previously.

    BOTH major parties, TAMPAZEKE, deserve to be roundly criticized….it would be nice to get rid of all of them, we need another revolution.

    Why not use your head, TAMPAZEKE, instead of regurgitating the party line?

  14. says

    Comments like: ‘BOTH major parties deserve to be roundly criticized…it would be nice to get rid of all of them, we need another revolution’ are so childish. Let’s lump everything in a bowl and call it even. Give us examples or evidence rather than an emotional response (ala tea partiers) and let’s play an adult game called governance.

  15. ratbastard says


    I gave examples. Stop being childish Shawn because I dared to criticized two gay / minority sacred cows: Democrats and so-called progressives, i.e. liberals / leftwingers.

    Be a man, Shawn. Think for yourself.

  16. Rowan says

    @ rata bastard

    You don’t think for yourself but spout a. Load of sh*t.

    No one said the dems are not corrupt and if I am not mistaken, people using their brains seem to feel that they are the best of a bad bunch.

    In what you state you lie because although you claim you hate the Repubs, your mention of ‘obamacare’ that woyld help millions to not suffer through sickness says where you are evilly coming from.

    You don’t know Europe. We have the Tories in power and some of their back benchers tried to start up murmurings of getting rid of the NHS and guess what? They’ve had to stfp because even people who voted for them are like….No. Over our dead body will we be like the right wing, sociopathic americans who would kill their own friend for a quick buck.

    No thanks. I may not want the state to control and want smaller govt but we would be self combust in Europe before we live like the Americans-all for one and one for all, you die!

  17. says

    No, more like 9%

    just like 2008 the pollsters r all polling landlines only.

    Youths and african americans tend to be cell phone users only without landlines. This was very evident in 2008 with Obama beating all expected polls through the primary season against hillary and beating mccain by a larger margin than the polls showed

    any poll add at least 3% more for the dem to cover the non polled youth and african americans who do not own dinosaur tech landlines

    now 2yrs later 3% is probably a very conservative estimate due to 2 yrs of youngsters hiting voting age and oldsters dieing off

  18. ratbastard says

    ‘youngsters’ are not a reliable voting block.

    African Americans can not tilt an election outside of a few deep south states.

    google the phrase ‘devil’s advocate’…I attempt to make some close minded people think outside their ideological box with some of my posts. The world is not black and white like many people who post on TR seem to think. And black and white is not a racial reference 😉

  19. ratbastard says

    There is zero evidence younger generation are more leftwing / liberal overall than older. In fact, evidence shows as soon as they grow up, the majority are center-right on most issues. The U.S. is a center-right country by and large. Diffidently not leftist or even center-left, although it occasionally swings in that direction, the pendulum generally pretty quickly swings back center-right.

  20. says

    LOL ratbastard

    keep thinking that when asked the american people by 2/3

    – against privatization of social security
    – for raising taxes on the top tier
    – support medicare
    – support gays in the millitary
    – support abortion in cases of rape and incest
    – despise our reliance on oil and coal
    – etc etc

    the country is and always has been center right

    the reagan revolution was a hiccup, a very small hiccup in the history of this country

    Heck, rebellion against the crown of england and setting up for its time a very secular government based on principles of the enlightenment era = RAVING LIBERAL founding fathers (for their time)

  21. says

    “Cuomo, the state’s attorney general, had the support of 49 percent of likely voters, compared to 43 percent for Paladino, a blunt-speaking businessman who shocked establishment candidate Rick Lazio in the September 14 Republican primary, the Quinnipiac University poll found.

    A Quinnipiac poll of registered voters released on September 1 — two weeks before the Republican primary — had shown Cuomo, the son of popular former New York Governor Mario Cuomo, with a lead of 60 percent to 23 percent over Paladino.

    “”The question was whether Carl Paladino would get a bounce from his big Republican primary victory. The answer is yes,”” Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, said in a statement. “”He’s within shouting distance and — you can count on it — he will be shouting.””

    Cuomo, who been considered a strong favorite ahead of the November 2 election in the heavily Democratic state, picked up the endorsement of New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who appeared with Cuomo at City Hall.

    “”New Yorkers are angry with (the state capital) Albany — and I think for good reason, but anger is not a governing strategy,”” said Bloomberg, one of the leading U.S. independent politicians.

    The Quinnipiac poll showed Paladino leading among independent voters by 6 percentage points.

    Paladino’s campaign seized on the new poll to say voters were “”climbing on board with Carl”” and said it gave him an immediate, though unspecified, boost in fund-raising.


    “”No matter how you slice that poll it comes up good for Carl and bad for Cuomo. Andrew Cuomo started this race 37 points ahead. He has dropped 31 points,”” Paladino campaign manager Michael Caputo said in a statement.

    Cuomo downplayed the poll, saying, “”I’m in politics, I’m in government, so nothing surprises me at this point in life.”””

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