Nate Silver: Same-Sex Marriage opponents Now in Minority
I last posted Nate Silver's coincidentally phallic graph of public opinion on marriage back in August 2010. He notes, in a NYT blog posted yesterday, that the trend in favor of marriage equality has continued upward.
The trendline — derived through regression smoothing — estimates that about 50 percent of Americans now support gay marriage and that 46 percent are opposed, with a small percentage of voters undecided. By contrast, at this time two years ago, the numbers were 42 percent in favor and 53 percent opposed, according to the same technique.
The change — about a 4 percentage-point shift in favor of gay marriage in each of the last two years — is about double the longer-term rate of progress for supporters of gay marriage, which has been between 1 and 2 percentage points per year.
It's weird how this study starts the year I was born. It's interesting how things have changed rather quickly throughout my life.
Posted by: Rxe | Apr 21, 2011 10:50:34 AM
Of note, it's all oddly penis shaped graph no?
Posted by: Lurker | Apr 21, 2011 10:58:52 AM
Step by step the change is coming. Push forward.
Posted by: Matt26 | Apr 21, 2011 11:11:28 AM
"Our studies show how people can be a dick."
Posted by: Adrian | Apr 21, 2011 11:13:20 AM
It's just saying opponents have small penises.
Posted by: gnicko | Apr 21, 2011 11:15:00 AM
This is great news, progress is definitely coming, but to really see widespread change, there needs to be a uptick in enlightenment and chance in the places there hasn't been enough of it. And that would be religious fundamentalists, urban culture, traditionally socially-conservative cultures don't seem to be progressing much IMO, and if anything, are regressing. However, awareness and education have definitely and are continuing to go a long way.
Posted by: Francis | Apr 21, 2011 11:22:26 AM
How sad that our "Fierce Defender" is a part of that minority.
Posted by: TampaZeke | Apr 21, 2011 11:24:05 AM
I'll believe it when we start having some victories at the ballot box.
Posted by: jamal49 | Apr 21, 2011 11:28:33 AM
Yeah, I'll believe that when we get a state to vote for us.
The moment it looks like we have a chance, the Christians run screaming into the room about forcing our kids to watch porn movies in Kindergarten and it's over.
Posted by: jasun mark | Apr 21, 2011 11:31:18 AM
in purely graphic terms, this is an unfortunate development. Now the graph looks as if the forehead is a snapping turtle. Ow!
Posted by: hugo | Apr 21, 2011 11:36:40 AM
But time and again these polls disappoint when it comes to the ballot box. Because (A) those who strongly oppose gay marriage are greater than those who strongly support it, and (B) when confronted with a telephone poll or in discourse, some people feel pressure to give the PC response; however, when left alone in the privacy of a ballot booth, they are free to vote their bigotry.
Posted by: Mike C. | Apr 21, 2011 12:10:52 PM
@ Mike
I believe the answer is simpler than that. Our worthy opponents are very good at getting their constituency out to vote and they are willing to spend massive sums of money to motivate them.
We are constrained by both finance and our own organizational deficiencies. It also does not aid our cause that often times those who are most favorable to our causes are amongst the Americans least likely to cast a ballot.
Posted by: Kas | Apr 21, 2011 12:23:09 PM
Alas, we have to deal with the distribution of likely voters in red vs blue states. However, this might be good news for marriage in NY state.
Posted by: anon | Apr 21, 2011 12:29:36 PM
@mike c.: That's one theory, but there's another one that I think has more solid stats to back it up:
Prejudiced initiatives tend to only be turned down at the ballot box when we have at least 54% of adults on our side. That's because not only are conservative religious people more organized to motivate their troops to vote, but OLD people vote more than young people.
It's not hard to see why, if only because most of the oldest people are retired. A lot of 30-year-old employees just don't want to go stand in line for 15 minutes of their work-day (or sometimes 5 hours if they live in a Democratic-voting area of a Republican-run swing state!)
We're all set to win at the ballot boxes of the most progressive states. And it looks like we've already got most adults on our side nationally.
It will take another election cycle before we have most VOTERS on our side nationally. (There's still the factor of the electoral college, which on the whole, ironically,, give more weight to the least-informed voters. But that will cease to be a factor as the dominoes fall state by state.)
These latest surveys are exciting news. The USA's public is now about where Canada's was when it ruled in favor of equality 10 years ago. And in Canada, it quickly became a losing issue for conservative politicians to the point that equal rights is now accepted, it's obvious that it was a good thing, and it's not an issue any more.
Posted by: Gregv | Apr 21, 2011 12:43:17 PM
It's still not a popularity contest.
Posted by: Rebel Agenda | Apr 21, 2011 1:14:36 PM
I am pretty skeptical of the results. In california before prop 8, polls were not predictive of the actual votes--and this was in an election where dem turnout was high.
I think it is a lightning rod issue that motivates haters to turn out. So even if the polls reflect a majority on our side, the actual voting pool would turn out against marriage equality. Worse, it would motivate otherwise apathetic conservatives to get to the polls.
Another point, I think happens is that people say they are pro equality, yet in the voting booth, let their inner bigotry determine their actual vote. It's sort of like here on the comments section. People say things they'd never say in public because here you remain anonymous. So again, the reality may be different than the polls indicate.
This being said, it is empowering and hopeful to see this in the polls. Hopefully the trend continues, encourages discussion, and our culture will change to embrace true equality for all.
Posted by: dms | Apr 21, 2011 1:21:04 PM
Can't wait until marriage equality is realized--not so I can get married, though. I'm just anxious to see the lgbt community get passionate about something a little less bourgeois than the institution of marriage! (No judgment intended in the direction of anybody who really wants to get married. It's just not for me, and there are lots of other issues to tackle!)
Posted by: AdamA | Apr 21, 2011 3:17:39 PM
California's Prop 8 was in 2008. If you look at the graph for that year, there was a 15 point deficit (NATIONWIDE, on average) in public opinion.
Seven million Californian VOTERS turned out against marriage equality (only 3 in every 10 adults in the state). Meanwhile, 6.4 million California voters supported marriage equality, that translates into a 4.5% point deficit (just 1/3rd the national average).
One year later, in Maine, marriage equality was overturned (losing by just over 33,000 votes), and the deficit in Maine vote was 5.8 points (about 1/2 of the national average).
So the trendline is great news, but in order to translate into a win a the ballot box, we need a few more years of improving numbers. (It is despicable that equality is put up for a popular vote.)
A footnote on the CNN poll. It appears to have included NO ONE under the age of 35!
The tab breakdowns show N/A for data in the 18-34 age category as opposed to a * if there isn't a statistical significant number of respondents. Trends would suggest that if the CNN poll had included a significant number of younger voters/adults, the percentage in favor of marriage equality would be even higher and the acceleration of the rate of change even greater.
Posted by: TruthSeeker_Too | Apr 22, 2011 9:53:28 AM