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Poll: Ron Paul Surges in Iowa as Gingrich Implodes

The latest PPP polling from Iowa:

RpaulNewt Gingrich's campaign is rapidly imploding, and Ron Paul has now taken the lead in Iowa.  He's at 23% to 20% for Mitt Romney, 14% for Gingrich, 10% each for Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Perry, 4% for Jon Huntsman, and 2% for Gary Johnson.

Gingrich has now seen a big drop in his Iowa standing two weeks in a row.  His share of the vote has gone from 27% to 22% to 14%.  And there's been a large drop in his personal favorability numbers as well from +31 (62/31) to +12 (52/40) to now -1 (46/47). Negative ads over the last few weeks have really chipped away at Gingrich's image as being a strong conservative- now only 36% of voters believe that he has 'strong principles,' while 43% think he does not.

Paul's ascendancy is a sign that perhaps campaigns do matter at least a little, in a year where there has been a lot of discussion about whether they still do in Iowa.  22% of voters think he's run the best campaign in the state compared to only 8% for Gingrich and 5% for Romney. The only other candidate to hit double digits on that question is Bachmann at 19%. Paul also leads Romney 26-5 (with Gingrich at 13%) with the 22% of voters who say it's 'very important' that a candidate spends a lot of time in Iowa.  Finally Paul leads Romney 29-19 among the 26% of likely voters who have seen one of the candidates in person.

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Comments

  1. It's scary that Rick Santorum is at 4th place. Honestly, this guy only talks about how gay marriage is a threat to mankind and he's more popular than Jon Huntsman in the race? Scary.

    Posted by: Sarina | Dec 19, 2011 12:53:14 PM


  2. Personal favorability at -1? Mom? MOM!!!!

    Posted by: Craig | Dec 19, 2011 12:53:44 PM


  3. This is exciting. It's hard to accept all of Paul's stances but he's the only guy that isn't a pawn for the political and corporate establishment. Obama was extension of Bush, Gingrich and Romney will be an extension of Obama. Simple puppets. I really think Paul will buck all of that. Idk, we need an upheaval and I trust him.

    Posted by: Lance | Dec 19, 2011 12:57:36 PM


  4. Unfortunately, I think I would rather vote for Paul than the corporate shrill Obama.

    Posted by: zeddy | Dec 19, 2011 1:08:09 PM


  5. Newt loves illegals (amnesty) more than Americans (Newt wants to bring back child labor for US kids). Mitt thinks corporations are people (killing his general election chances). Ron Paul is the only candidate with a plan to end the TSA and end the endless wars for Israel, it all started a decade ago after a false flag attack.
    9/11, US and Israel:
    http://www.amazon.com/America-Deceived-II-Possession-interrogation/dp/1450257437

    Posted by: Evan | Dec 19, 2011 1:08:37 PM


  6. Check out this article in the West Hollywood News: http://www.wehonews.com/z/wehonews/archive/page.php?articleID=6761

    Ron Paul is the anti-bullying candidate who stands for peace, and people are starting to recognize that.

    Posted by: brianinla | Dec 19, 2011 1:13:46 PM


  7. ummm....ending the TSA is a priority?

    Posted by: Ben | Dec 19, 2011 1:29:42 PM


  8. this guys still a rabid homophobe or have his handlers got him to tone it down.

    Posted by: sleepy bear | Dec 19, 2011 1:41:11 PM


  9. Is that the SAME Ron Paul that is the Leprechaun farmer?

    Posted by: Sargon Bighorn | Dec 19, 2011 1:41:43 PM


  10. Ask notable 2008 Iowa Caucus winner Mike Huckabee how it felt to go on to win the Republican nomination for President. Oh, wait... you can't ask that because he didn't become the nominee.

    I only say this to point out that it isn't clear that winning in Iowa necessarily results in winning anything. The reason is that the Iowa Republican electorate is not necessarily representative of the national Republican electorate. That said, I guess if Ron Paul wins, he can at least look forward to having his own show on Fox News. Arguably, he would have more influence on policy by working at Fox than he would working at the White House anyway!

    Posted by: RyanInSacto | Dec 19, 2011 1:50:43 PM


  11. I love how people cherrypick Ron Paul beliefs to form their opinion. He is mostly a nutcase, and his foreign policy beliefs alone would destroy the country.

    Need I remind you he's the choice of the non-religious Tea Partiers?

    Posted by: Gregoire | Dec 19, 2011 2:02:21 PM


  12. Like clockwork, Andy posts something about Ron Paul and BRIANINLA shows up to post a comment about the awesomeness of Ron Paul. "Ron Paul is the anti-bullying candidate who stands for peace, and people are starting to recognize that." He will also leave your dishes virtually spotless. Elect him president and you'll be able to eat anything you want, but still get the beach body you always desired. Herbal Ron Paul will give you long-lasting erections without a costly prescription. Also, just one dose of Ron Paul will remove those unsightly varicose veins that have been causing you such embarrassment. And that's not all – you'll have a year-round tan without messy lotions and sprays or dangerous UV light. All of this while respecting states rights and returning us to the gold standard. Act now while supplies last!

    Posted by: RyanInSacto | Dec 19, 2011 2:02:32 PM


  13. Haven't we heard this __________ is surging story for the past six months??

    Posted by: anon | Dec 19, 2011 2:06:11 PM


  14. I agree with Gregoire; more specifically, where are some commenters here getting the idea that Paul is pro-gay rights? Maybe he doesn't demonize gay people *quite* as much as most of the other Republican candidates, but that's pretty faint praise. He supported and still supports the "Defense of Marriage Act," and has criticized Obama's instruction to the Justice Department to stop defending it. He claims that his Libertarian views dictate that government should stay out of marriage altogether (even though he is fine with government intrusion into a lot of other things, like abortion), but the abolition of civil marriage would leave marriage an entirely religious institution, and that could leave marriage off-limits not only to gay couples but a whole lot of even slightly "non-traditional" straight couples (for instance, interfaith or interracial couples).

    Posted by: Thomasina | Dec 19, 2011 2:20:31 PM


  15. @Ben: it is for any idiot who refers to people as "illegals."

    Posted by: ChristopherM | Dec 19, 2011 2:41:57 PM


  16. Ron Paul is just the latest in a string of 'anybody but Romney' candidates. After Paul, Santorum is the only one left. They desperately want an electable candidate and even the evangelicals in Iowa know Sandtorum doesn't have a chance. He lost his last elective office by 20 points, and he was the incumbent. Perhaps they will bring in some more candidates after Iowa. There is still Sarah Palin and Jeb Bush.

    Posted by: Charlie | Dec 19, 2011 2:42:11 PM


  17. Please GOP, just go away....

    Posted by: John Normile | Dec 19, 2011 2:45:34 PM


  18. Ron Paul's position on marriage is that marriage licenses should not be required and that you and your spouse should just create and sign your own marriage contract. That would allow your marriage to fit your needs and other people's marriage to fit their needs. It is a side-step in reality, but fits in well with his mostly libertarian beliefs.

    Ron Paul was for DADT before some of his constituents sat him down and explained to him the reality of the situation. He changed his mind on DADT and was one of only five Republicans who voted for its repeal. His statements on DOMA show that he does not understand the realities of the law and what exactly is being challenged.

    Ron Paul is indifferent to gay rights, not against them. That may be the same thing to you, but he has bigger fish to fry in his mind. He is almost singularly focused on the economy and that is one of the reasons that he is doing so well this year. This year is about the economy and jobs, not social issues.

    Paul certainly isn't perfect, but I'd prefer a Republican Party made up of Ron Pauls vs Newt Gingriches.

    Posted by: Jay Young | Dec 19, 2011 2:56:21 PM


  19. It's funny to see people bash Ron Paul's stance on marriage but still support Obama.

    And as for calling him a nutcase for his foreign policy??

    He is pro-peace and diplomacy and get's more support from MILITARY Personnel than ANY OTHER candidate or politician in the USA.

    Please. Ron Paul is NO kook.

    Posted by: ChrisMe | Dec 19, 2011 2:58:18 PM


  20. @Thomasina - There ARE churches that will marry same-sex couples. And if there weren't then you could start one. All religions are made-up nonsense, so make up some nonsense for your gay church.

    You don't need a government license to have a religion (but you do get a tax exemption).

    Posted by: Anastasia Beaverhausen | Dec 19, 2011 3:03:46 PM


  21. Here we go again with Ron Paul. It doesn't matter if he wins IA (I'm all for it among those Republican nutcases), he won't be the nominee and he won't be President.

    The myth that Ron Paul is good for gay people needs to be put to rest once and for all. He isn't. He's a hypocrite on marriage. If he believes the federal government should be out of marriage, he should first take it out of his own 50+ year marriage, return all the benefits the federal government has bestowed on that marriage, then put forth a concrete policy that will sever all federal government ties to heterosexual marriage. (Good luck with that, Ronnie.) He should also explain why he thinks gay citizens should accept having our relationships less recognized than his own, why he supports DOMA, which forces my state to treat married gay and married straight couples differently, and why he believes gay citizens should be prohibited from fighting for equality through the justice system and the US Constitution.

    Those gay people who support Paul need to be clear that they are supporting a candidate who believes that we are not worthy of his consideration at all.

    Posted by: Ernie | Dec 19, 2011 4:14:31 PM


  22. @Ernie: I agree.

    It's time to recognize that *apathy* about lgbt rights is not the same as *support* for lgbt rights.

    Chances are, a Paul supporter will now come along and say "Ron Paul just thinks there are more important issues than lgbt rights" or "don't you care about anything else besides gay rights?" Let me preempt such responses by saying that what I want is for Ron Paul supporters to be honest about his positions on LGBT issues. They actually aren't the only important issues to me, but they rank highly for me and that's probably the case for a lot of people who read "a site with gay tendencies" as Towleroad bills itself.

    Posted by: RyanInSacto | Dec 19, 2011 4:47:36 PM


  23. You two have some of your facts wrong.

    Wake up and look into Ron Paul. He DOES support gay people. And by the way...

    Remember that it was only just earlier this year that Obama stopped enforcing DOMA.

    Posted by: ChrisMe | Dec 20, 2011 12:12:32 AM


  24. I jsut found this sight because of the Ron Paul lip reading video...which was hilarious. But I Just wanted to say, that I support individuals doing what they want. I in fact think it is none of my business or the governments business about who marrys who. Btw, look up the video of Ron Paul on Jay Leno...pretty funny also

    Posted by: Bryan | Dec 20, 2011 12:43:51 AM


  25. As a gay male, I can only say Paul is the ONLY GOP candidate that I like. His views on gay rights are a bit laissez faire and are quite independent, which I respect.

    Truthfully, I believe our economy and other issues to get our nation back on its feet is much more important than my rights and who I want to marry when I get older.

    Dr. Paul is essentially breaking down the wall between the two parties and is satiating both wants/needs of the parties-which is good.

    Posted by: Stephen | Dec 20, 2011 12:47:03 AM


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