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Election Eve Update and Information: Marriage in Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, and Washington State

Here's some election day info and resources that might be helpful tomorrow regarding the marriage measures in Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, and Washington. Thanks to Freedom to Marry for much of it.

Towleroad will be doing a liveblog starting at approximately 6:30 tomorrow night. Towleroad's former political director and current candidate for New York City Council Corey Johnson will be joining us.

MEMAINE: Yes on 1

Most recent polling:

PPP: Maine's referendum to legalize gay marriage is leading for passage by a 52/45 margin, numbers virtually unchanged from 52/44 in our last survey. What we've found historically with these gay marriage ballot measures though is that undecided voters tend to end up voting anti-gay so if I had to guess this is something more like a 52/48 advantage and at that point it can go either way- this is likely to be a pretty close vote.

Polls open between 6 and 8 am and close at 10:00 (EST). Municipalities of less than 500 can open any time between 6 and 10am. Mainers should check with their local municipality to determine exactly when their polling location opens. No matter what though, all locations close at 8. Maine's Secretary of State has up to 20 days to verify election results, the governor has 10 days to do so, and then there is a 30 day wait period for the law to go into effect. The earliest possibility would be Dec. 7, 2012 (30 days after the election), the latest would be Jan. 6, 2013 (60 days after the election).

Twitter for Mainers United: @MainersUnited

Hashtags: #YesOn1

 

MDMARYLAND: Yes on 6

Most recent polling:

Goucher College: "Fifty-five percent of residents support allowing same-sex couples to marry legally in Maryland;39 percent oppose it. When asked their opinion on the effects that legalizing same-sex marriage would have on society in general, 64 percent indicate that it would have either '“no effect,' or itwould 'change society for the better.' Thirty-two percent say it will 'change society for theworse.'"

Polls open at 7am and close at 8pm (EST). IF passed, would take effect January 1, 2013.

Twitter for Marylanders for Marriage Equality: @MD4Equality
Hashtags: #VoteFor6

 

MNMINNESOTA: Vote NO on the marriage amendment

Polling hours: Polls open between 7 and 8 am and close at 8pm. Smaller munipalities may not open until 10am. (CST)

If passed, when would the law take effect? N/A-- if the amendment passes, marriage will still be illegal in Minnesota.

NOTE: All abstaining votes on the constitutional amendment will count as “no” votes. For instance, if a voter casts their vote in the Presidential election but does not vote either way on the marriage amendment, their vote will count as a no. For a constitutional amendment to pass in Minnesota, it must receive more than 50% of all ballots cast in the election.

Most recent polling:

PPP: The more interesting findings on our final Minnesota poll deal with the state's high profile amendments to ban gay marriage and require voter identification. We find both narrowly trailing. 45% of voters say they'll vote for the gay marriage ban, compared to 52% who are opposed to it. And 46% say they'll support the voter ID amendment to 51% who are opposed.

The marriage amendment is trailing because of a massive generational divide. Seniors support it by a 57/40 margin but every other age group opposes it, including a 36/62 margin against it among voters under 30. Republicans support it (79%) and Democrats oppose it (76%) in almost equal numbers, but independents tip the balance by opposing it 41/55.

Twitter for for Minnesotans United for all Families: @MN4AllFamilies
Hashtags: #VoteNO; #MNUnited

 

WAWASHINGTON: Approve Referendum 74

Polling hours: Washington is a completely mail-in ballot state. All ballots must be postmarked by Tuesday 11/06.

Insight on how/when results will be reported: "As few as 40% and as much as 60% of the vote is expected to be tallied and announced. Most counties will release their initial vote totals in one batch on election night. It is very unlikely that the Referendum 74 outcome will be known on election night.

If passed, when would the law take effect? December 6, 2012.

Most recent polling:

Support for Referendum 74 is under 50 percent, and the measure to legalize same-sex marriage enjoys only a narrow four-point lead, according to a new statewide Elway Poll released on Wednesday.

Ref. 74 leads 49-45 percent in the poll, with a small sliver of undecideds — who often break “No” in statewide elections.

Twitter for Washington United for Marriage: @WA4Marriage
Hashtags: #WA4M; #Approve74; #VoteLove

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Comments

  1. Note that the Goucher College poll of Maryland, which at first glance looks like the best set of numbers, was a poll of all residents. Not likely voters or even registered voters, but all MD residents.

    Posted by: Jeff R | Nov 5, 2012 9:16:16 PM


  2. Regardless of how the majority votes on the civil rights of a minority, the war is not over. The US Supreme Court will call the shot on equality.

    Posted by: Sargon Bighorn | Nov 5, 2012 9:40:05 PM


  3. Prior to NOM invading Washington, R74 had a strong 14 point lead.

    Posted by: kelehe | Nov 5, 2012 10:47:16 PM


  4. I can't believe complete strangers are going to be voting on the rights of other complete strangers tomorrow. And yet people say that America is the best? How could any nation that makes such a travesty out of the gift of democracy possibly be the best?

    Posted by: Chris | Nov 5, 2012 10:54:36 PM


  5. If you look at the WA Poll (Uni. of WA's poli-sci dept), page 8, the spread is more like over 56% yes on Ref. 74, to 35% no.) Elway polls have an anti-gay slant, according to some.

    http://www.washingtonpoll.org/results/kcts9_full_wave2.pdf

    Posted by: Ontogenesis | Nov 5, 2012 11:16:56 PM


  6. If you look at the WA Poll (Uni. of WA's poli-sci dept), page 8, the spread is more like over 56% yes on Ref. 74, to 35% no.) Elway polls have an anti-gay slant, according to some.

    http://www.washingtonpoll.org/results/kcts9_full_wave2.pdf

    Posted by: Ontogenesis | Nov 5, 2012 11:16:59 PM


  7. We need these wins. Justice Roberts is timid and needs to see that momentum is truly on the side of gay marriage.

    Posted by: David | Nov 5, 2012 11:34:07 PM


  8. I think most have gone into this final stretch expecting wins in Washington and Maine and losses in Maryland and Minnesota. Washington seems the most likely to pass. I think we're going to win WA. In Maine, if you add anti-gay bias to the polls, we have a lead. We have never categorically lead in polls this late in the game so I feel confident about those two states.

    Maryland and Minnesota are much different and are all about turnout. Maryland seems right at about 50-50. We've made progress in Minnesota and the fact all non-votes are NO votes against the marriage ban is a major plus for us. I actually feel somewhat optimistic about Minnesota for the first time.

    Posted by: Francis | Nov 6, 2012 12:03:06 AM


  9. The poll from Washington is not the most recent. There have been two since that one:

    Survey USA 52-43-5
    PPP 52-42-6

    I read elsewhere than the Elway poll mentioned here had a disproportional number of Conservatives relative to what is typical in Washington state.

    Based on all the polls, the result should be about 53-47.

    Posted by: Matt N | Nov 6, 2012 12:15:31 AM


  10. @Sargon Bighorn: Only if Obama is reelected!

    Posted by: Diogenes Arktos | Nov 6, 2012 12:33:35 AM


  11. GO VOTE BITCHES! Drag your friends to the polls and let's go win this!

    Posted by: sparklekittens | Nov 6, 2012 12:52:46 AM


  12. It can go either way- this is likely to be a pretty close vote.

    Posted by: Angelic Stephen | Nov 6, 2012 1:15:29 AM


  13. If we pull it off in MD, then we pull it off in ME and WA.

    Posted by: Anthony | Nov 6, 2012 1:59:43 AM


  14. I forsee a mixed feelings day, i.e., President Obama will be re-elected (I REALLY hope so), but we are going to be f*cked in (most of) these equality ballots.

    Posted by: Blake | Nov 6, 2012 2:44:49 AM


  15. Unfortunately, gay people in America have rolled over and allowed their rights to be subjected to the whims of bigots who don't even know them. I partly blame America's leading gay organizations for this surrender.

    As for the results of the referenda, I think they'll all produce an anti-gay result. Liberal women and blacks almost always vote against us in the privacy of the booth.

    Posted by: jason | Nov 6, 2012 6:09:23 AM


  16. I think we only win in Washington by the narrowest of margins. Polls significantly overestimate the Progay vote and underestimate the opposition. There is a substantial chance we could lose all four.

    Posted by: Javier | Nov 6, 2012 7:20:08 AM


  17. Everyone ignore Jason's racist and sexist rant. He's a bitter troll who isn't worth responding to. He just trying to get the comments section off topic. IGNORE HIM PLEASE!!!! He does this everyday and it's insufferable.

    Posted by: MateoM | Nov 6, 2012 10:48:02 AM


  18. More context on the WA vote: the last KCTS9 Washington Poll (well-respected pollster) had Ref 74 winning 58 to 37%. When it corrected for the social desirability bias (lying to an interviewer so you don't look like a bigot), the margin was 52.3% approve to 45.8% opposed. Yes, it's much closer, but that margin was virtually unchanged from an earlier version, before NOM and its trolls started blitzing the state with ads. The Elway poll is indeed conservative-leaning, so you need to take that with a grain of salt. Also encouraging is that King County (which includes Seattle), is outperforming its early benchmarks for turnout, and could top 87% - or more (perhaps helped in part by younger voters turning out for the marijuana legalization initiative). I'm cautiously optimistic that this is our year.

    Posted by: BDNELSON | Nov 6, 2012 12:10:03 PM


  19. Obama is the first President brave enough to support the GLBT community’s access to basic civil rights. The church and conservative hands paint a Blackface on him for defending this human-rights issue. Religious doctrine and the bigotry which goes along with it have NO place in politics. Read about how Obama and simple logic are being bamboozled at http://dregstudiosart.blogspot.com/2012/10/bamboozling-obama.html

    Posted by: Brandt | Nov 6, 2012 12:21:00 PM


  20. Maryland is FOR Question 6! FOR FOR FOR FOR FOR FOR!!!! "Yes" will not be an option!

    Posted by: K | Nov 6, 2012 12:27:57 PM


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