Nate Silver To Joe Scarborough: I Bet You $1,000 Obama Wins


New York Times statistician Nate Silver is so confident in President Obama's electoral victory that he's betting former GOP Congressman and current MSNBC host Joe Scarborough $1,000 that the commander-in-chief will have a second term.

The above tweet comes after Silver found press and pundits wondering whether he would be a "one-term celebrity" if Obama loses. Silver's career took off dramatically after he used his skills, once reserved for sports games to correctly call the 2008 election, save for one state.


  1. Fahd says

    Nate Silver is terrific at what he does. A neck and neck race draws a greater audience, but that doesn’t mean the mainstream media shouldn’t fully inform the pubic about what the polls show – namely that there is no viable way for Romney to put together an electoral college victory. If they did though, people might stay home.

  2. HadenoughBS says

    I, too, hope that Nate’s prediction comes true. His work has been the best-of-the-best so if anyone knows his stuff, it’s Nate.

    In the meantime, why, oh, why, does MSNBC continue to foist Rethuglican Scarborough on us every weekday morning? It’s all I can do to tune in most days, especially with his sexist comments toward sidekick Mika. Joe’s superiority complex and know-it-all attitude about everything political makes me ill. The best “Morning Joe” shows are the days when Scarborough is NOT present. I’d love to see Mr. Rethuglican have to write his $1,000 “loser check” to the Red Cross following election night – that is if he accepts Nate’s bet.

  3. Bob R says

    When looking at the state by state polling trends since Romney’s nomination, when did Willard ever once have a winning combination? Any Romney flirtation with winning the Presidency has been brief, at best. The past week, Obama has been gaining and Romney declining. Hurricane Sandy has become Willard’s Waterloo. Privatize FEMA? The final nail in an already lead laden coffin.

  4. Coco VonLoco says

    Hey Brian L! No single person or organization was MORE ACCURATE than Nate Silver with electoral predictions over the last 2 National elections! So you can’t claim he’s way too “over-rated” until someone else’s predictions are more acurate.

  5. jamal49 says

    Nate Silver may be a bad-ass statistician and data nerd and his predictions regarding an Obama election victory are, one hopes, spot-on. But he sure is a squirrely-looking guy. It’s uncomfortable to watch him on some of the news-chat shows. He looks as if he is fading out and in like some errant television signal whenever the camera is not directly on him and when it is on him, he looks like he’s ready to implode from all that data swirling around in his brain.

  6. dave02657 says

    “@jamal49, please post a pic of yourself.”
    Posted by: me | Nov 1, 2012 12:42:20 PM

    … touche’ !

    Besides the basic fact that jama149’s characterization and assessment of Nate is so totally wrong, Nate well proves that sexual appeal and attraction lies far more above the neck than below.

    I would well enjoy twelve hours with Mr. Silver; the first six over Chablis and a chalkboard, the last six in a more intimate environment.

  7. MarkUs says

    I predict when Romney wins comfortably, Nate Silver will just use what Terry McAuliffe used after the Clinton Midterm Republican tidal wave: “Well. What did you expect me to have said?!”

    Have a nice week. 1000 dollars. Wow, that’s a lot of money.

  8. jd says

    It’s a relatively safe bet, but I think it cheapens what he does. Silver is saying that there is (as of now,) about an 80% chance Obama will win. I think he’s right. But that isn’t a prediction, it’s a probability. Pundits make predictions (and half the time they’re wrong). Silver calculates odds, which in theory are correct to a certain confidence level, based on the data available. It isn’t the same thing and shouldn’t be treated as the same thing.

    Also: the Uncle Toms rooting for Romney really gross me out.

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