04/23/2008
Hillary Clinton Wins Pennsylvania Primary, Soldiers On
Hillary Clinton took the Pennsylvania primary over Barack Obama with 55% of the vote to Obama's 45%. The candidates' speeches, above, via Talking Points Memo. Josh Marshall of TPM notes that, after Pennsylvania, we're basically back where we started again: "There's a lot of crowing from Hillary's campaign tonight about a shift in momentum and doubts about Obama. Tomorrow there will be a lot of chatter from Obama's campaign that none of that really matters because of the reality of the delegate numbers which won't change much."
AP: "Her victory, while comfortable, set up another critical test in two weeks time in Indiana. North Carolina votes the same day, and Obama already is the clear favorite in a Southern state with a large black population. 'Now it's up to you, Indiana,' Obama said at a rally of his own in Evansville after Pennsylvania denied him a victory that might have made the nomination his."
The NYT reports: "Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton defeated Senator Barack Obama in Pennsylvania on Tuesday by enough of a margin to continue a battle that Democrats increasingly believe is undermining their effort to unify the party and prepare for the general election against Senator John McCain. Despite a huge investment of time and money by Mr. Obama and pressure on Mrs. Clinton by the party establishment to consider folding her campaign, she won her third big state in a row. Mrs. Clinton showed again that she is a tenacious campaigner with an ability to connect with the blue-collar voters Mr. Obama has found elusive and who could be critical to a Democratic victory in November."
But is it possible for Clinton to win the nomination? MSNBC's Chuck Todd does some analysis below, and concludes that it's almost impossible for Obama to lose his lead in pledged delegates.
Posted 8:12 AM EST by Andy Towle in Democratic Party, Election 2008, Hillary Clinton, News, Pennsylvania | Permalink
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Jimmyboyo, Weak argument. McCain IS the republican nominee.
Posted by: tofer david | Apr 23, 2008 10:15:10 AM
JMG
And you are here curing cancer?
LOL
Posted by: Jimmyboyo | Apr 23, 2008 10:15:11 AM
Tofer
A weak argument that the majority of america is not repub, that dems have seen unprecedented new voter registration sometimes 5-10 times the number of registered repubs in a state, that ALL polls on age show that america by 2/3 do not want a president over 70 (mccain is over 72)
Mccain and repubs are pissing in the wind this year.
The only reason mccain has any positives is because the dems have not focused on him yet.
Just wait till the primaries are over and a united dem party actualy debates oldster, temper tantrum, walking around with a freaking tumor on his face, bush jr, can't remember what he said yesterday, doesn't understand economics mccain
Posted by: Jimmyboyo | Apr 23, 2008 10:19:38 AM
For the record, the second post by Sean H was someone else.
And yes, there is no way she can win. No way. I'm sorry that you cannot accept this. Yes, this is a democracy and the people have already spoken. Hillary Clinton is done. All that she has left is to tear the Democratic Party apart because she only believes that the Presidency somehow belongs to her.
Again, Obama owns the delegates pledged lead, the states won lead and the popular vote lead. So where do you get off saying that this is a Democracy and somehow Obama and his campaign is somehow not a part of that?
Stop drinking the kool-aid. Stop with the talking points. Stop trying to tear the Democratic Party apart and making this so much easier for John McCain.
The people have spoken. The writing is on the wall. Obama will be the nominee. It's just a matter of time.
Posted by: Sean H | Apr 23, 2008 10:23:55 AM
Tofer,
It is obviously you that doesn't understand Superdelegates. She would have to earn around 60% of the superdelegates while winning the rest of the states, with very solid margins, to win the nomination.
Or better yet, just watch the damn video that was posted. Might learn you something on Hillary's chances.
Posted by: STHolihan@hotmail.com | Apr 23, 2008 10:29:03 AM
The states won argument is such an inadequate argument. It is so trivial that it is laughable to continue to hear it made. Stop it. There are better arguments.
Yeah North Dakota!
Posted by: tofer david | Apr 23, 2008 10:32:18 AM
Okay, so no mention of the popular vote total?
How's that? I guess that doesn't matter either after all the years of us complaining about Al Gore?
So, do people like you sacrifice all of your integrity for politicians you back or what?
Posted by: Sean H | Apr 23, 2008 10:34:13 AM
I never said Hillary was going to win.
I never said anything about superdelagates either.
I only commented on Obama and McCain.
I pointed out that Obama has serious issues with key voters. Obama's wins in places like North Dakota mean nothing in an election against McCain. The key voters in states that are critical to a democratic win can easily swing to McCain.
A democratic victory in November is not going to be a cakewalk. McCain is actually doing quite well in places that should be the democrats. Take a look at Massachusetts.
Posted by: tofer david | Apr 23, 2008 10:36:27 AM
"You must not understand the electoral college either. It is a different system than you seem to be familiar with."
TOFER DAVID
Just a couple posts up.
Posted by: Sean H | Apr 23, 2008 10:40:26 AM
By the way, check out the link. As of right now, Obama beats McCain in most polls nationwide. Hillary? Loses to most McCain in most polls.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html
Posted by: Sean H | Apr 23, 2008 10:47:48 AM
Sean,
You prove my point. You and others point out how Obama has won more states including states that will be clearly McCain in a general election. These states are not as relevant. The states that are relevant are those that could swing McCain. Places where a democrat will win will go democrat.
The electoral college is winner take all. Places like North Dakota are meaningless to Obama. The fact that Obama beat Hillary there is meaningless.
Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Arkansas, and West Virginia are questionable states in a McCain Obama matchup. With McCain leading well in these places.
Posted by: tofer david | Apr 23, 2008 10:55:39 AM
I can read the polls.
McCain-Obama = Obama up 1.2%
McCain-Clinton = Clinton up .1%
Some of the polls range percentage points either way. Again, this percentage isn't as relevant because the popular vote isn't what decides who is president...the electoral college does.
In match ups against McCain here are the results by state:
Pennsylvania
Obama-McCain = Obama +2.2
McCain-Clinton = Clinton +6.2
Ohio
Obama-McCain = McCain +2.6
McCain-Clinton = Clinton +5.0
Florida
Obama-McCain = McCain +11.7
Clinton-McCain = McCain +0.3
Clinton does better where it matters.
Posted by: tofer david | Apr 23, 2008 11:01:52 AM
@ Nic - I agree. Something really pathological is going on in the US media, and on the gay blogs, in regard to the female candidate - or BITCH! as they like to call her. Mark Simpson the guy who coined 'metrosexual' wrote a smart piece 'Who's the Diva? Hillary or Obama?' analysing it:
http://www.marksimpson.com/blog/2008/04/10/whos-the-diva-hillary-or-obama/
Posted by: BigBear | Apr 23, 2008 11:04:01 AM
Hillary is delusional. She is screaming about her huge victory in PA (just like she crowed over her huge "victory" in Texas, accomplished by Republican Limbaugh crossovers, and which still ended up being a delegate win for Obama), not mentioning she blew a 20-26 point lead - with the support of nearly the ENTIRE Pennsylania Denmocratic machine, under the auspices of Gov. Rendell - and has bankrupted her campaign in the process. CNN and the rest of the media are trying to keep this alive but we know the truth: her campaign is through. I don't care if she did raise $2.5M after this primary (almost enough to pay Mark Penn and his McCain-lovin' firm) - Obama will raise more, and his campaign will now use everything in its power to finish her off. She has squandered everything on one primary win. She has alienated a huge amount of voters in the Democratic Party. She has won a less than double-digit victory in a state that she should have been able to practically ignore just a few weeks ago. She now needs to win EVERY upcoming primary with at least 68-70% of the delegate count, which can basically be done by machine-gunning every potential Obama voter. The only way Hillary can win the nomination is by stealing and intimidation, which will ruin her - and the Dems' - chances in the GE against McSame. So go ahead, Hillary. Keep living in your little dream world. Get Edwards or whatever other person you can to try to help you out of the hole you have dug. Try denying your Iran remarks and your Iraq War vote and your deep and abiding love of John McCain and your insults to the hard working progressive base and NetRoots of the Democratic Party. I'll just sit here and watch the meltdown. It will be quite fun watching the end of you and your husband's political careers. Oh, and my figure of a lead of about 8.5 points was correct, verified by the Penn election website. And I never called her a bitch, or used sexist remarks against her, which is more than I can say for the veiled racism of the Clinton campaign, especially by her husband - you know, America's "first black president".
Posted by: Dom | Apr 23, 2008 11:18:58 AM
Clinton won Pennsylvania for two key reasons: Only Democrats could vote in the primary, and the Keystone State electorate is dominated by the elderly, who are staunchly for Clinton.
Despite her claims of electability, Hillary has never done well among independent voters. And Obama usually loses the Democrats. Pennsylvania's closed-primary rules gave her a key advantage.
Older voters are flocking to Clinton as fears mount of what Obama might do as president mount. But those under 45 - less focused, perhaps, on race - are moving toward Obama. Here, that split helped her.
Of the 50 states, only Florida has a higher over-65 proportion of its population. But there's a key difference: Florida's elderly moved there - Pennsylvania's are the folks that are left after the young people moved away.
Pennsylvania Democrats, in other words, suffer from future shock. They welcome old, established ways and embrace dynasties happily because they are so familiar. (Look at the Bob Caseys - dad was governor, the son is senator.)
But don't expect the open primaries of Indiana and North Carolina to behave like Pennsylvania's geriatrics. Both states are younger, especially North Carolina, and independents can vote in each primary. (North Carolina is where a lot of the young people who fled Pennsylvania winters and job losses ended up).
Posted by: Javier Mendez | Apr 23, 2008 11:24:00 AM
Hey all you Hillary fans!! You're crazy if you think she won't throw all us homo under the bus if she needs to. This little piece is a perfect example. She won't even mention us in her speeches, but Obama ALWAYS does.
http://www.americablog.com/2008/04/hillarys-gay-problem.html
Posted by: realitythink | Apr 23, 2008 11:33:55 AM
Obama did lose all the older voter categories, starting at age 45. He lost white people, both genders. And with respect to every background, he lost the working-class folks, the union members, and the non-college educated. He lost suburbanites (including two of the suburban Philadelphia counties, Montgomery and Bucks, that he needed to win by comfortable margins), small-town dwellers, and rural residents. He lost the white Catholics and he lost the Jews. He lost the culturally-conservative Democrats on Bob Casey's home turf, Lackawanna County, by a 3 to 1 margin.
Thirteen percent of white voters statewide said that the race of the candidate was important to them; of those voters, 74 percent cast their ballots for Hillary Clinton. This is arguably a warning sign that Obama may face a higher racial hurdle than many observers have generally assumed.
Posted by: tofer david | Apr 23, 2008 11:45:05 AM
One thing most of you are forgetting is Obama is an idiot. He is the delusional one...with his dream like promises of a perfect world that only he can create for America...GIVE ME A BREAK! Hillary will do what she does best...She'll fight and SHE WILL WIN. She'll just sit tight and wait until he slips up because HE WILL SLIP UP, let's face it, he is a liar with a homophobe as a pastor...Then her case will be made to the supers that she is indeed the BEST candidate to take on McCain...Once the Florida and Michigan votes are counted we will see who America really wants to be the nominee...Florida and Michigan ARE PART of the U.S. and there votes should be counted. As a democrat if she doesn't fight for those votes, it will be a sad day for democracy indeed.
Posted by: daveynyc | Apr 23, 2008 11:47:32 AM
Dom, update on the vote totals---55-45%
99% of numbers in.
Posted by: tofer david | Apr 23, 2008 11:55:44 AM
Javier, Thank you. Finally, a voice of reason among the screaming twinks and delusional old trolls. The majority of commenters make the mistake of assuming that the rest of this country believes and, most importantly, votes as they would wish rather than their consistent center right stance.
Hillary cannot beat McCain. What is she going to run on, her "experience"? McCain would wipe the floor with her. Her loss would make those of McGovern and Mondale look like Democratic high points.
Yes, people want change, hate the war, and are fearful of the declining economy, so the election is the Democrat's to lose. Unfortunately, pitting Hillary (whom most people who vote view as McCain-Lite) against McCain is the fervent wish of the ultra conservative Republicans, who otherwise cannot abide McCain. The only hope for a Democratic triumph this autumn, is for the young people to actually vote for their candidate of choice, Obama. Obama would present a stark contrast to McCain.
What is most laughable (nee pathetic) is that HRC's positions differ from Obama's only slightly but he has a much greater likelihood of actually getting something enacted. HRC as President would only be a revival of political victim-hood and legislative paralysis. Billary has perfected the Atwater-Rovian style of divisive and dirty politics.
As I have wondered here before: what do gay men have in common with Hillary's most fervent supporters: old, white (including Hispanic), poorly educated, lower socio-economic class, Roman Catholic, women?
Posted by: rudy | Apr 23, 2008 12:09:14 PM
I support HRC, but I think Obama will win the primaries. Delegates are not going to go against the people.
But I think the larger story is how consistently Dems elect people with no electability in a genearl election. Look at HRC's voter base - she has expanded into Republican territory in rural and small towns. large urban centers are Dems' anyway.
Jimmy I am waiting to collect my USD $10.
Posted by: Landis | Apr 23, 2008 12:19:00 PM
Rudy,
It's the diva effect. Gay men love a woman scorned, they can connect to it. Especially older white queens.
Jeremiah white is not a homophobe. You're talking about that Mclurklin guy, or what ever his name is. Obama used him to show his followers the problem with thier homophobia is. You people need to get your facts straight.
Hillary is a old white woman who doesn't give two shits about your gay ass.
Posted by: realitythink | Apr 23, 2008 12:20:15 PM
Rudy,
Javier is so reasoned 'cause he totally lifted his passage from the New York Post. Written by none other than Dick Morris. You will all remember Dick Morris as the former Clinton aide that turned on the Clintons after they woudln't bail him out after getting caught sucking on a hooker's toes. Same hotel that Spitzer was caught with his hooker. Go figure Javier is truly reasoned.
Posted by: tofer david | Apr 23, 2008 12:36:07 PM
I will tell you this. If Hillary gets the nomination, I will gladly vote for McCain, and will huge numbers of black voters. And when is the last time the Dems won a presidential election without getting over 80% of the Black vote? In modern history, NEVER. I would rather deal with a rightwing Supreme Court than vote for Hillary.
Posted by: Jamal | Apr 23, 2008 12:44:44 PM
Older white gay men are generally a very racist lot who tend to identify with women more than men. They tend to be effeminate, which leads to them idolizing "strong" women. It is bizarre, but explains why they like Hillary so much. It's their effeminate vexation mixed with racist tendancies.
Posted by: Hezekial | Apr 23, 2008 12:52:08 PM