2012 Election | Gay Marriage | Minnesota | News

Polls Still Showing Tight Race In MN Marriage Fight

6a00d8341c730253ef0168ec1a63a8970c-250wiSadly, National Organization for Marriage president Brian Brown may be right about the right winning in Minnesota: yet another poll is showing that a constitutional amendment barring marriage equality has a chance of passing.

A new survey from the Minnesota Star-Tribune shows 49% of voters said they would approve the measure, while 47% definitely oppose it. Four percent remain undecided.

This conservative edge does not, however, mean the amendment is "winning," says the paper, because a plurality does not equal a win:  "Minnesota law requires any change to the Constitution to capture a majority of all ballots cast. That means a voter who skips the question is counted as a no vote."

Here's some of the predictable demographic breakdown:

Minnesota's oldest voters were the most likely to approve the amendment, with 55 percent of those 65 and older favoring the amendment. Younger voters are just as opposed, with 57 percent saying they will vote against it.


Fully 57 percent of men say they support the measure, but 56 percent of women were opposed.

Party affiliation is another strong fault line, with 78 percent of Republicans in favor and 73 percent of Democrats opposed. Independents, often crucial swing voters in any election, are coming down on the side of the amendment by 55 percent to 38 percent opposed. About 7 percent were undecided -- the single-largest block of undecided voters in the sample on the marriage question.

Meanwhile, a vast majority of Minnesotans say they support civil unions: 68%. Most of the people who oppose marriage or civil unions are, again unsurprisingly, basing their vote on religious views.

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  1. The truth is usually by the end of September to early October, we are at right around 50-50. With Prop 8 we were 20 points supposedly as late as July and August. By early October it was virtually tied with us having a small lead. And the Mormons had only just begun starting their assault.

    In Maine in 2009 PPP had it exactly even by this point of the year in their poll and momentum was against us.

    This is the first time that it can be said that we actually have some sort of legitimate lead this late in the game in at least Maine and Washington. The question is just how much of that lead will be whittled away in the closing periods to the election. And if we can change any minds on the fence, because those people usually either vote no or don't vote at all. It's all about turnout at the end of the day.

    Posted by: Francis | Sep 24, 2012 5:04:59 PM

  2. Billy, the wording is crucial. It can sway people to vote one way or the other. If it said "should homosexual marriage be imposed on this state?" a lot of people would say no, but if you say "should gay and lesbian people be able to obtain a civil marriage license, with religious freedom being preserved?" a lot more people would be for that. It's all about perception.

    Posted by: Anthony | Sep 24, 2012 5:07:51 PM

  3. I'm more optimistic than most people here because of the situation where leaving the question blank counts as a no vote. In a presidential election year I can easily see people voting for President and skipping the rest of the ballot, especially low information and uneducated voters who we usually lose big with. I don't think most polls account for this factor.

    Posted by: Ken | Sep 24, 2012 6:13:18 PM

  4. Ken you're right. The fact that a blank vote is a no vote is a godsend for our side.

    Posted by: Anthony | Sep 24, 2012 6:21:26 PM

  5. Well, I'll cross MN off my list of states I was looking to move to next year.

    Posted by: daws | Sep 24, 2012 6:50:30 PM

  6. I sympathize with AJ. I've lived in MN most of my life and I am tired. I'm also old enough that honestly I'd rather spend the remaining years of my life someplace where we aren't reviled. I'm watching the Federal elections closely and if the Republicans take control of Washington, I'll be asking for a transfer to the European office.

    Posted by: TSG | Sep 24, 2012 7:59:09 PM

  7. The malevolent person who is posting in Rick's name that he masturbates to pictures of his dead mother and farts when thinking of his times rimming his grandfather is beneath contempt. The little person who is doing this is so vile. So Vile.

    Posted by: Andrew | Sep 24, 2012 10:25:13 PM

  8. Lest anyone reading these posts think that Brian Sims is a good gay role model: he isn't. Just two years ago he worked for the most LGBT friendly representative in the Pa legislature: Babette Josephs. He decided to move into her gay and gay friendly district in center city Phila and challenge her. He defeated her by about 300 votes. He correctly assumed that enough gay people without a sense of loyalty to an old friend would jump at the chance of voting for an out gay man. The message that sends to other straight pols is don't spend a lot of political capital on gay issues, because if one of their own comes along and challenges you, they will drop you like a hot potato.

    Posted by: Andrew | Sep 25, 2012 12:21:15 AM

  9. As many people as possible should keep an eye out for jobs in one of the non-hate states. Take away the much needed skills from the hate states and they will learn that discrimination hurts all.

    Posted by: Blake | Sep 25, 2012 12:33:56 AM

  10. Can Victor and Eli come out to play?

    Posted by: Andrew | Sep 25, 2012 12:55:39 AM

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