Ohio Tightens in New Poll

The race for the all-important Buckeye State is getting closer with just 3 percent undecided, according to a new poll:

OhioMr. Obama has a 5-point advantage over his opponent among likely voters, with 50 percent to 45 percent for Mr. Romney. Last month, in the Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News poll of Ohio, Mr. Obama led by 10 points.

In the current survey, only 3 percent remain undecided and 95 percent of those with a preference said their mind was made up. Of those who had already voted, 54 percent said they cast their ballot for Mr. Obama and 39 percent said they voted for Mr. Romney.

The poll was conducted Wednesday through Saturday night, after the second presidential debate held on Tuesday at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y. Almost half (48 percent) said Mr. Obama won last week’s debate, 27 percent said Mr. Romney was better and 12 percent considered it a draw.

Nate Silver took a look at Ohio on Saturday:

The best number of the day for Mr. Romney was almost certainly the Public Policy Polling survey of Ohio, which had him down by one point there — improved from a five-point deficit in a poll they conducted there last week.

If this had been the only poll of the day in Ohio, Mr. Romney would probably have made an Electoral College gain on that basis, since the forecast is very sensitive to anything in Ohio. There was another Ohio poll, however, from Gravis Marketing, which showed a tied race. Isn’t that an even better result for Mr. Romney?

Not in this case, because Gravis Marketing polls have had a Republican lean of two or three percentage points this cycle. (Their prior poll of Ohio had shown Mr. Romney up by about one point.)

The FiveThirtyEight model adjusts for these “house effects” and so treats the Gravis Marketing poll as equivalent to showing a two- or three-point lead for Mr. Obama.

It also adjusts the Public Policy Polling survey of Ohio slightly downward for Mr. Obama — but Public Policy Polling has lost most of the strong Democratic lean that it had earlier in the cycle, and it has even been on Mr. Romney’s side of the consensus in a few states like Iowa and New Hampshire. We now calculate their house effect as being only about half a percentage point in favor of Mr. Obama.

More from Nate at FiveThirtyEight

Comments

  1. Gus says

    The more mobile phones, the more Caller ID. The older the voter the less likely to have Caller ID on their land line. Early voting also messes with the model.
    While all the MSM news was about Virginia’s transvaginal ultrasound, we in Ohio had them LIVE in the Republican controlled statehouse. Even though the subjexts were volunteers, there was a collective “Ewwwww!” across the state, along with defunding of Planned Parenthood, then The more mobile phones, the more Caller ID. The older the voter the less likely to have Caller ID on their land line. Early voting also messes with the model.
    While all the MSM news was about Virginia’s transvaginal ultrasound, we in Ohio had them LIVE in the Republican controlled statehouse. Even though the subjects were volunteers, there was a collective “Ewwwww!” across the state, along with defunding of Planned Parenthood, then giving the funding to Christianist alternative clinics. Any poll that does not show a large gender gap does not look real to me. the funding to Christianist alternative clinics. Any poll that does not show a large gender gap does not look real to me.

  2. nn says

    It’s so scary but the worst is that I think Mitt’s going to win. And then it’s goodbye to rights that existed before.
    Everyone should read this: Romney: Hospital Visitation For Gay Couples Are ‘Benefits’ Not Rights http://thenewcivilrightsmovement.com/romney-hospital-visitation-for-gay-couples-are-benefits-not-rights/politics/2012/10/20/51681

    nd READ: 22 LGBT Advances That (Probably) Will Disappear Under A President Romney http://thenewcivilrightsmovement.com/22-lgbt-advances-that-probably-will-disappear-under-a-president-romney/politics/2012/06/14/41482

    So how can someone who belongs lgbt people, vote for Mitt is beyond my understanding at all

  3. kp05 says

    If Mitt Romney wins, conservatives will be more eager to rub the victory in our faces than rejoice. To them, it makes their day to “piss of a liberal.” They don’t really know why they want Mitt Romney to win, besides that fact that it will make some of us sick to our stomachs.

    I don’t want to win to piss them off. I want to win because I’m truly concerned. I want to win because I KNOW what Barack Obama stands for and, despite running for President for SIX YEARS, I still don’t know what Mitt Romney is for, besides making it easier for the wealthy to become wealthier. Please vote.

    Think SCOTUS. Don’t waste your vote on a 3rd party protest vote, especially if you live in a swing state. This election is too important and we’re too close to equality to move backwards.

  4. Francis says

    Obama with a lead in Ohio with most having either already voted or decided their vote. I’m not concerned unless there is a hidden vote for Romney. This election was always going to tighten and be quite close, but I’m confident enough Americans have retained sanity and will make the correct decision here, and reelect Obama.

    If you’re gay and don’t vote for Obama, I have absolutely nothing to say for you.

  5. says

    It’s always good to report this news—thanks, Andy.

    But as for reactions: Why, oh, why do so many Democrats (especially) freak out and assume that every LATEST poll is the DEFINITIVE poll? You have to examine if the pollster is considered strong (PPP is “okay”) and you have to examine all the other polls. A more recent poll puts Obama 5 ahead. Internal campaign polling (as reported by the very reliable and fair Charlie Cook) puts OH as a toss-up but leaning Obama.

    Obama’s campaign has put out a memo with all of the very reasonable points why it is sure of an Ohio win.

    Obama is going to win Ohio.

    Romney is going to have to figure out how to get to 270 without OH…but that is very unlikely because if he loses OH, he will probably lose some of the states he needs without it.

    This race is NOT over. But right now, Obama has a clear edge.

  6. says

    Also, my own personal thought on undecided voters is:

    Last election, a sizable majority voted for Obama. This election, with the bloom off the rose, some of those voters are disenchanted and not gung-ho to say, “Yes, I’m voting Obama.” However, ANYONE undecided right now (barring first-time voters, a tiny fraction) would be far more likely to NOT be anti-Obama, since anyone anti-Obama would be registering as such. Rather, they are very, very likely to mostly be soft-support Obama voters. Most of them will do what Kelly Clarkson did and bah-humbug pull the lever for Obama.

  7. simon says

    Technically not wrong but the title misleading. It should have a qualifier. The race tightened from a 10-point advantage for Obama to 5-point. It still predicts a 5-point win for Obama.

  8. Javier says

    Obama had a 10 point lead in the Ohio Quinn poll over three weeks ago. A huge first debate occurred and Obama is up by five now. So, it took over three weeks an awful Obama first debate performance for Obama to drop by five points in Ohio. There are two weeks left and many have already voted. Barring an awful Obama debate performance tonight and an unforeseen October/November surprise, Obama will win Ohio.

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