2016 IOWA CAUCUS UPDATES —
Ted Cruz has been declared the winner of the Republican party’s Iowa caucus, earning 27.7% of the vote. Donald Trump came in second with 24.4%, and Marco Rubio came in third with 23.0%.
Hillary Clinton has been declared the apparent winner by NBC News. With 99.94% reporting, Clinton had 49.89% and Sanders 49.54%.
The AP will not declare winner in Iowa Democratic caucuses at this time because of the closeness of the race between Clinton and Sanders.
— The Associated Press (@AP) February 2, 2016
See below for yesterday’s results and live blog out of the Iowa caucuses, where voters decided their initial choice for President of the United States. Timestamps next to items indicate time posted, not when the particular news item occurred.
HOW THE CAUCUSES WORK: Here’s a simple guide from the Des Moines Register.
11:16 pm CT: Bernie Sanders’s speech Monday night.
11:00 pm CT: Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders remain in a virtual tie, with Clinton at 49.8% and Sanders at 49.6%. Each with 21 delegates.
10:50 pm CT: Bernie Sanders declares, “While the results are still not known, it looks like we are in a virtual tie.”
10:44 pm CT: Hillary Clinton said after Iowa she is “breathing a big sigh of relief.” Major networks and news outlets have yet to declare a victor.
10:41 pm CT: DEMS via NYT with 94% reporting: Clinton 49.8%, Sanders 49.6%, O’Malley 0.5%
10:18 pm CT: Trump gave his concession speech, coming in second (barely beating Marco Rubio).
10:13 pm CT: DEMS via NYT with 92% reporting: Clinton 50.2%, Sanders 49.3%, O’Malley 0.5%
9:56 pm CT: Marco Rubio gives a victory speech for coming in 3rd.
9:30 pm CT: Mike Huckabee officially suspending campaign.
I am officially suspending my campaign. Thank you for all your loyal support. #ImWithHucK
— Gov. Mike Huckabee (@GovMikeHuckabee) February 2, 2016
9:22 pm CT: NBC, AP, and ABC projecting Ted Cruz wins the Iowa Caucus. Cruz 27.7%, Trump 24.4%, Rubio 23.0%…
9:20 pm CT: Via NYT, GOP with 83% reporting: Cruz 27.7%, Trump 24.4%, Rubio 23.0%…DEMS with 83% reporting: Clinton 50.1%, Sanders 49.2%, O’Malley 0.6%…
9:14 pm CT: Via NYT, GOP unchanged…DEMS with 81% reporting: Clinton 50.3%, Sanders 49.1%, O’Malley 0.5%…
9:06 pm CT: Via NYT, GOP with 62% reporting: Cruz 28.3%, Trump 25.0%, Rubio 21.9%…DEMS with 78% reporting: Clinton 50.3%, Sanders 49.0%, O’Malley 0.6%…
8:57 pm CT: CNN reports Martin O’Malley will suspend his campaign this evening.
Martin O'Malley will suspend his campaign at his caucus party tonight at Wooly's in Des Moines, per sources close to the campaign.
— Dan Merica (@merica) February 2, 2016
8:56 pm CT: Via NYT, GOP with 62% reporting: Cruz 28.3%, Trump 25.0%, Rubio 21.9%…DEMS unchanged…
8:50 pm CT: Via NYT, GOP with 57% reporting: Cruz 28.8%, Trump 25.1%, Rubio 21.3%…DEMS with 69% reporting: Clinton 50.7%, Sanders 48.6%, O’Malley 0.6%…
8:46 pm CT: Via NYT, GOP with 55% reporting: Cruz 28.7%, Trump 25.2%, Rubio 21.2%…DEMS with 67% reporting: Clinton 50.8%, Sanders 48.7%, O’Malley 0.6%…
8:37 pm CT: Via NYT, GOP with 41% reporting: Cruz 29.2%, Trump 26.3%, Rubio 20.0%…DEMS with 61% reporting: Clinton 50.9%, Sanders 48.5%, O’Malley 0.5%…
8:36 pm CT: Via NYT, GOP with 34% reporting: Cruz 29.4%, Trump 26.3%, Rubio 20.0%…DEMS with 59% reporting: Clinton 51.0%, Sanders 48.5%, O’Malley 0.6%….
8:30 pm CT: GOP unchanged…DEMS with 55% reporting: Clinton 51.2%, Sanders 48.3%, O’Malley 0.5%….
8:20 pm CT: Via NYT, GOP with 25% reporting: Cruz 29.9%, Trump 26.8%, Rubio 18.9%…DEMS with 50% reporting: Clinton 51.2%, Sanders 48.2%, O’Malley 0.5%….
8:12 pm CT: NYT with 37% reporting. GOP: Cruz 29.9%, Trump 27.2%, Rubio 18.9%…DEMS: Clinton 51.5%, Sanders, 47.9%, O’Malley 0.5%…
8:06 pm CT: NYT with 29% reporting. GOP: Cruz 29.8%, Trump 27.8%, Rubio 18.6%…DEMS: Clinton 52%, Sanders 47.3%, O’Malley 0.3%…
8:00 pm CT: NYT now with 23% reporting. GOP: Cruz 30.2%, Trump 28.6%, Rubio 17.8%…DEMS: Clinton 52.9%, Sanders 46.6%, O’Malley 0.5%…
7:35 pm CT: Early results via NYT. 1% reporting. GOP: Cruz 34.6%, Trump 32.9%, Rubio 12.3%…. DEMS: Clinton 51.7%, Sanders 46.6%…
7:06 pm CT: Major news outlets are reporting Trump and Clinton leading in very early entrance poll data…
7:05 pm CT: Trump at caucus site in West Des Moines:
"very good," Trump says of how he is feeling pic.twitter.com/NzzXtvkGXz
— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) February 2, 2016
6:28 pm CT: Turnouts across the state are reportedly high. Conventional wisdom on the Democratic side is that it benefits Sanders and on the Republican side that it benefits Trump… We’ll see.
6:21 pm CT: 11 Iowa counties to watch tonight.
6:18 pm CT: Turnout for Ted Cruz strong in Iowa City.
— Maeve Reston (@MaeveReston) January 31, 2016
5:21 pm CT: On-location tweet. Rick Santorum last night back at the pizza ranch. “Sure, Santorum filled the party room, but only a handful of reporters were present. The parking lot, at least, was filled with Santorum bumper stickers from all over. These were the loyal supporters: staff members, volunteers, even longtime mega-donor Foster Friess. These were the people who had been with Santorum since he was at 2% in the polls back in 2011 and stood by him throughout the political rollercoaster ride that followed. They are with him again now, back at 2%.”
Rick Santorum's last Iowa town hall at a Pizza Ranch pic.twitter.com/LyerHEtwSW
— Ben Jacobs (@Bencjacobs) February 1, 2016
5:00 pm CT: Loathsome anti-gay rapper Azealia Banks has endorsed Donald Trump.
4:56 pm CT: Hillary Clinton told campaign volunteers in Des Moines earlier today that she feels “energized.”
4:24 pm CT: Nate Silver talks about why Iowa is the hardest state to poll and why the polls could be all wrong: “…the uncertainty associated with forecasting tonight’s Iowa Republican caucus is about as high as it gets in a major American election. Even Ann Selzer, the best pollster in the country, could have a rough night. That doesn’t mean we’re completely in the dark. Our forecast models are designed to account for this uncertainty. Hillary Clinton, for example, leads Bernie Sanders by 4.5 percentage points in our Iowa polling average. In a general election, that would make her a rather heavy favorite, probably upwards of 90 percent. But in the Iowa caucuses, it’s not that much of an edge. Thus, our polls-only forecast still gives Sanders a 28 percent chance of winning, and our polls-plus forecast, which likes Sanders because his Iowa numbers exceed his standing in national polls, puts his chances slightly higher, at 33 percent. There’s even more uncertainty on the Republican side. Trump leads Cruz in our polling average by about the same margin that Clinton leads Sanders, 4.7 percentage points. But the larger number of candidates involved could make for a wild finish.”
3:38 pm CT: Donald Trump tells crowd to “knock the crap out of” protesters at caucus day rally in Cedar Rapids. “There may be somebody with tomatoes in the audience. So if you see somebody getting ready to throw a tomato, knock the crap out of them, would you? Seriously. Okay? Just knock the hell— I promise you, I will pay for the legal fees. I promise, I promise. It won’t be so much ’cause the courts agree with us too.”
3:30 pm CT: Bernie Sanders last message to Iowa voters.
3:23 pm CT: Rand Paul seeks to rally “leave me alone” coalition: “With hours remaining before Iowans head to their caucuses, Rand Paul sought to rally what he called the “leave me alone” coalition to claim an unlikely win in state. ‘When I look at this movement, I have nothing but optimism for the future,’ Paul said. ‘The amazing thing is throughout history man has dominated man with tyranny, but the experiment of freedom, the experiment of limited government, the government of a government restrained by a Constitution, that’s new in history. But you don’t get it if you don’t fight for it. We got to keep fighting against the impulse of something for nothing.'”
Changing things up by attending a rally for Rand Paul, who calls his supporters the "leave me alone" coalition. pic.twitter.com/bKJAye9c4Z
— Chris Johnson (@chrisjohnson82) February 1, 2016
2:44 pm CT: On-location tweet from the Clinton campaign.
— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) February 1, 2016
2:34 pm CT: New Quinnipiac poll released Monday: “Business executive Trump leads with 31% while Cruz has 24%, giving Trump a larger margin over the Texas senator than he had a week ago. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio has 17% and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson has 8%. On the Democratic side, Sanders has 49% while the former Secretary of State has 46% — a difference of just 3 percentage points, within the poll’s 3.2 percentage point margin of error. That result is different from the Des Moines Register poll released Saturday, which also featured a three-point difference, but with Clinton in the lead, 45% to 42%. That Register poll also featured Trump in the lead, though with a smaller advantage: Trump had 28% to Cruz’s 23%, followed by Rubio at 15%.”
2:30 pm CT: Donald Trump goes to church so often he mistook the communion plate for the offertory: “Republican presidential contender Donald Trump has been looking for ways to reach out to evangelical voters before the GOP primaries. On Sunday, the businessman and his wife attended church services at the nondenominational First Christian Church, in Council Bluffs, Iowa. But when the Communion plates were passed, Trump mistook the silver plates for the offertory, digging out several bills from his pocket, according to the Associated Press.
2:23 pm CT: Ted Cruz was heckled at an event last night. The heckler yelled out, “I don’t feel so good. Ted Cruz looks so weird.” Cruz responded, “I guess the bars let out early.”
‘NOT A SERIOUS CANDIDATE’: Jeb Bush trying to bring Trump down in Des Moines this morning:
— Jeb Bush (@JebBush) February 1, 2016
WEATHER: Blizzard should arrive in Iowa later on Monday: “In Polk County, the National Weather Service upgraded a previous winter storm watch to a winter storm warning at about 4:30 a.m. Monday. The warning begins at midnight Tuesday and runs through 6 a.m. Wednesday. The latest snowfall projections call for 6 to 10 inches in central Iowa, with a foot or more expected north and west of the metro area…Iowa caucusgoers should be fine, but Mother Nature just might hold presidential candidates and swarms of national media captive. A blizzard is expected, but not until after Iowa’s politicking is completed. That’s right, Iowa, you won’t be able to blame the weather if you shrug off your civic duty.”