New Poll: NJ Voters Oppose Marriage Equality 49-46

While a Rutgers-Eagleton poll released on November 19th showed a majority in New Jersey favor allowing gays and lesbians to marry, a new poll released today by Quinnipiac shows that a majority oppose it.

The Star-Ledger reports: "The poll, conducted between Nov. 17 and Nov. 22, found that 49 percent of adult residents are opposed to giving gay couples the right to marry while 46 percent are in favor of it. Six percent were undecided. A poll conducted by Quinnipiac earlier this year had almost the opposite results -- 49 percent of voters supported gay marriage while 43 percent did not. 'When we asked about gay marriage in April, it won narrow approval. Now that it seems closer to a legislative vote, it loses narrowly with the public,' said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute."

Read the poll with more analysis  here.

And here's my post from yesterday about the demonstration that went on this week at the NJ state house before the Senate Judiciary Committee.

An AP article published today expressed a pessimistic view of the situations in both New York and New Jersey:

"New York is seen as relatively gay-friendly. Court rulings, including one from the state's highest court just last week, have found that gay couples married elsewhere are entitled to some government benefits. New Jersey offers the legal rights afforded married couples, but calls them civil unions, not marriages. Both states have Democratic governors not only willing but eager to sign gay marriage bills. But now it's not clear if bills will ever get to their desks. There could be national implications if they don't.' If this goes down in both states, it will be seen by both sides as building on the momentum that opponents sort of got coming out of Maine,' said David Masci, a senior researcher at the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life. There's a sense of urgency in New Jersey. This month, voters elected Republican Chris Christie over incumbent Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine. Corzine has said he'll sign a gay marriage bill. Christie promised a veto."

Advocates for marriage equality in both states still believe a vote will occur this year:

"Steven Goldstein, chairman of Garden State Equality, the state's main gay rights organization, acknowledges his side has lost some support in Trenton. "Was marriage equality in the bag before the election? Nothing in politics is ever in the bag, but we were looking pretty damn excellent," Goldstein said. Despite the uncertainty, Goldstein says he still expects a vote this year. "Now, we're looking pretty damn good," he said...New York Sen. Thomas Duane, an openly gay lawmaker sponsoring the same-sex marriage bill, said Tuesday he still expects the state Senate to vote on and pass a bill by the end of the year."

New Public Policy Poll: Marriage Tied in Maine, Voter Mobilization Key

Public Policy Polling reports on their new Maine poll which shows the state's voters evenly divided on the issue of same-sex marriage:

"Opinion on the issue predictably breaks heavily along party lines. 74% of Republicans are planning to vote yes while only 25% of Democrats are. Independents may end up deciding which way it goes- presently 50% of them support rejecting the law with 44% in opposition. Older voters are strongest in their support of cutting off gay marriage. 54% are in support with 40% opposed. Senior citizens can often dominate the electorate in low turnout elections so the ultimate fate of this measure may lie in how many younger people get out to the polls and vote. There is a strong gender gap on the issue with 53% of men but only 43% of women wanting to reject the law. It’s also interesting to note that while white voters oppose undoing the law by a thin 47-45 margin, nonwhite voters in the state support rejection by a 55-35 margin, creating the overall tie. “The fate of Question 1 is going to be decided by which side does a better job of mobilizing their supporters to get out and vote,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Voters in the state know where they stand on the issue and now it’s just an issue of who shows up.”

Public Policy Poll on Maine [pdf]

Help Protect Maine Equality HERE.

Poll: Gays Losing Marriage in Maine

A Research 2000/Kos poll of 600 likely Maine voters conducted between September 14-16 reveals that if the election were held today, Maine would lose marriage equality.

The relevant questions, via DailyKos:

According to the pollsters: "Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county. The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the 'true' figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation."

More questions about the state of Maine and the nation here.

(thanks, rex)

GALLUP: National Public Opinion on Same-Sex Marriage Steady

A new Gallup poll shows that despite advances in several states on marriage equality, national public opinion has generally remained the same, with a majority of 57% opposed and 40% in favor. Also:

***

"Americans' views about allowing gay men and lesbians to serve in the military have undergone a major shift since Bill Clinton attempted to change military policy early in his administration. No more than 43% of Americans favored military service by openly gay soldiers in 1993, according several NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls conducted that year. Clinton and the military eventually compromised on the so-called "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy that allowed gays to serve as long as they did not disclose their sexual orientation.

"Today, the latest USA Today/Gallup poll finds 69% of Americans in favor of military service by openly gay men and lesbians. While the Clinton-era policy remains in place, President Obama promised during the campaign to change it.

"Americans also show broad support for gay rights in the following areas: Sixty-seven percent say gay and lesbian domestic partners should have access to health insurance and other employee benefits. Nearly three in four Americans, 73%, believe gay and lesbian domestic partners should have inheritance rights. Sixty-seven percent favor a proposal to expand hate-crime laws to cover crimes committed against gays or lesbians. Only 28% of Americans believe that gays or lesbians should not be hired as elementary school teachers. Sixty-nine percent believe they should be allowed to teach children.

"Americans are somewhat less supportive of adoption rights for gay couples, though a majority (54%) still support this. The current level of support does represent an increase from Newsweek polls conducted in 2002 (46%) and 2004 (45%)."

Poll: 56% of Americans Want Military Gay Ban Repealed

A new Quinnipiac University poll says 56% of Americans support the repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" while 37% oppose it:

"The ban on openly gay men and women in the military should be repealed, American voters say 56 - 37 percent, including 50 - 43 percent among voters with family in the military, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today. American voters who think being gay is an individual's choice, 36 percent, are generally less supportive of gay rights than those who think people are born gay, 42 percent.  White Catholics say 64 - 29 percent that gays in the military should be allowed to come out, while white evangelical Christians support "don't ask; don't tell" 53 - 40 percent. Voters reject 58 - 35 percent, including 56 - 39 percent in military households, the argument that allowing openly gay men and women to serve would be divisive, the independent Quinnipiac University survey of 2,041 registered voters nationwide finds."

However, the poll shows much different results regarding same-sex marriage results than an ABC / Washington Post poll released today as well. While the ABC/WaPo poll showed 49% in favor of marriage equality, the Quinnipiac poll show 38% in favor of marriage equality with 55% opposed. The Quinnipiac poll, however, does show 57% would be in support of civil unions for same-sex couples.

Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,041 registered voters nationwide from April 21-27 with a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.

ABC Washington Post Poll: 49% Support Full Marriage Equality

A new ABC/Washington Post poll shows that for the first time ever, supporters of same-sex marriage in the U.S. outnumber opponents. These are even better numbers than the stunning CBS Poll released just two days ago which found that 42% of Americans support marriage equality.

ABC News reports:

"Take gay marriage, legal in Massachusetts, Connecticut and now Iowa, with Vermont coming aboard in September. At its low, in 2004, just 32 percent of Americans favored gay marriage, with 62 percent opposed. Now 49 percent support it versus 46 percent opposed -- the first time in ABC/Post polls that supporters have outnumbered opponents. More than half, moreover -- 53 percent -- say gay marriages held legally in another state should be recognized as legal in their states. The surprise is that the shift has occurred across ideological groups. While conservatives are least apt to favor gay marriage, they've gone from 10 percent support in 2004 to 19 percent in 2006 and 30 percent now -- overall a 20-point, threefold increase, alongside a 13-point gain among liberals and 14 points among moderates. (Politically, support for gay marriage has risen sharply among Democrats and independents alike, while far more slightly among Republicans."

Read the full PDF here.