Here's some election day info and resources that might be helpful tomorrow regarding the marriage measures in Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, and Washington. Thanks to Freedom to Marry for much of it.
Towleroad will be doing a liveblog starting at approximately 6:30 tomorrow night. Towleroad's former political director and current candidate for New York City Council Corey Johnson will be joining us.
PPP: Maine's referendum to legalize gay marriage is leading for passage by a 52/45 margin, numbers virtually unchanged from 52/44 in our last survey. What we've found historically with these gay marriage ballot measures though is that undecided voters tend to end up voting anti-gay so if I had to guess this is something more like a 52/48 advantage and at that point it can go either way- this is likely to be a pretty close vote.
Polls open between 6 and 8 am and close at 10:00 (EST). Municipalities of less than 500 can open any time between 6 and 10am. Mainers should check with their local municipality to determine exactly when their polling location opens. No matter what though, all locations close at 8. Maine's Secretary of State has up to 20 days to verify election results, the governor has 10 days to do so, and then there is a 30 day wait period for the law to go into effect. The earliest possibility would be Dec. 7, 2012 (30 days after the election), the latest would be Jan. 6, 2013 (60 days after the election).
Twitter for Mainers United: @MainersUnited
Goucher College: "Fifty-five percent of residents support allowing same-sex couples to marry legally in Maryland;39 percent oppose it. When asked their opinion on the effects that legalizing same-sex marriage would have on society in general, 64 percent indicate that it would have either '“no effect,' or itwould 'change society for the better.' Thirty-two percent say it will 'change society for theworse.'"
Polls open at 7am and close at 8pm (EST). IF passed, would take effect January 1, 2013.
Twitter for Marylanders for Marriage Equality: @MD4Equality
Polling hours: Polls open between 7 and 8 am and close at 8pm. Smaller munipalities may not open until 10am. (CST)
If passed, when would the law take effect? N/A-- if the amendment passes, marriage will still be illegal in Minnesota.
NOTE: All abstaining votes on the constitutional amendment will count as “no” votes. For instance, if a voter casts their vote in the Presidential election but does not vote either way on the marriage amendment, their vote will count as a no. For a constitutional amendment to pass in Minnesota, it must receive more than 50% of all ballots cast in the election.
Most recent polling:
PPP: The more interesting findings on our final Minnesota poll deal with the state's high profile amendments to ban gay marriage and require voter identification. We find both narrowly trailing. 45% of voters say they'll vote for the gay marriage ban, compared to 52% who are opposed to it. And 46% say they'll support the voter ID amendment to 51% who are opposed.
The marriage amendment is trailing because of a massive generational divide. Seniors support it by a 57/40 margin but every other age group opposes it, including a 36/62 margin against it among voters under 30. Republicans support it (79%) and Democrats oppose it (76%) in almost equal numbers, but independents tip the balance by opposing it 41/55.
Twitter for for Minnesotans United for all Families: @MN4AllFamilies
Hashtags: #VoteNO; #MNUnited
Polling hours: Washington is a completely mail-in ballot state. All ballots must be postmarked by Tuesday 11/06.
Insight on how/when results will be reported: "As few as 40% and as much as 60% of the vote is expected to be tallied and announced. Most counties will release their initial vote totals in one batch on election night. It is very unlikely that the Referendum 74 outcome will be known on election night.
If passed, when would the law take effect? December 6, 2012.
Support for Referendum 74 is under 50 percent, and the measure to legalize same-sex marriage enjoys only a narrow four-point lead, according to a new statewide Elway Poll released on Wednesday.
Ref. 74 leads 49-45 percent in the poll, with a small sliver of undecideds — who often break “No” in statewide elections.
Twitter for Washington United for Marriage: @WA4Marriage
Hashtags: #WA4M; #Approve74; #VoteLove
PHOTO OF THE DAY: James Franco gets creepy with some body paint.
BY SAM GREISMAN
A look back at today's top stories
There is just one day left until Election Day and while Nate Silver's confidence in Obama continues to grow, he now gives the President an 86 percent chance of victory. Voter suppression cases are springing up like wildfire all over the big swing states. Why should everyone have the chance to vote, conservatives wonder?
If you're gay and for some reason thinking of voting for Mitt Romney tomorrow, this filmmaker has something to say to you.
Check out this very powerful and moving short film that highlights the massive inequalities between straight and gay families. For some reason Jesse Tyler Ferguson has fans on his Facebook who are anti-gay. Well he recently hit the unfriend button on them all.
Aside from the outcome of the Presidential race, we will also find out the outcome of four marriage equality related ballot measures tomorrow. Here is an update on how the pro-gay marriage ballot in Maryland seems to faring. The activist group Full Frontal Freedom also has a video out displaying why marriage equality is so incredibly necessary.
New York City's Rockaway Beach was one of the areas most strongly effected by last week's superstorm. They desperately need our help. Check here for information on how you can help with relief efforts.
VIDEOS OF THE DAY
It's that time of year again, in which Jimmy Kimmel gets parents to make their kid's worst nightmares come true.
Also on a COMPLETELY different note, who knew that veganism had such potent sexual side effects.
Former and Current NY Governors Blast Conservative Rabbi for Blaming Hurricane Sandy on Gay Marriage: AUDIO
Leiter asserted that the “the Great Flood in the time of Noah was triggered by the recognition of same-gender marriages,” adding that there are similar “messages in this particular storm for us.” “The Lord will not bring another flood to destroy the entire world but He could punish particular areas with a flood, and if we look at the same-gender marriage recognition movement that’s occurring, that certainly is a message for us to learn,” he said. “We have to learn that the Lord does watch what we do and if we don’t shape up He will deliver divine justice.” Leiter also suggested that God flooded Lower Manhattan because it is “one of the national centers of homosexuality.”
Former NY Governor George Pataki blasted the rabbi's remarks over the weekend:
Pataki called on fellow Republican Neil DiCarlo — who is running on the Conservative Party line for a state Senate seat from the Hudson Valley — to denounce the remarks of Rabbi Noson Leiter. DiCarlo opposes gay marriage, and the orthodox rabbi made the statements in support of his third-party candidacy.
“It’s simply incomprehensible that anyone could attribute the devastation and loss of life caused by Hurricane Sandy to divine retribution against the New York State legislature,” Pataki railed.
Today, Governor Andrew Cuomo piled on:
"The comments made by Rabbi Noson Leiter that sought to link the devastation caused by Hurricane Sandy to our state's embrace of marriage equality are as offensive as they are ignorant. This catastrophic storm claimed the lives of more than forty New Yorkers. This kind of hateful rhetoric has no place in our public discourse, and is particularly distasteful in times of tragedy. Our state is proud to offer equal rights to all our citizens, and we will never tolerate the use of a tragedy like Hurricane Sandy to promote a divisive and bigoted agenda."
Listen to Leiter, AFTER THE JUMP...
EDIE BEALE: Who's the party?
YOUNG MAINE PUNDIT: Gays will be able to marry.
TERRY BRADSHAW: Reggie Bush was running like he was chasing a bucket of chicken.
MARRIAGE NEWS WATCH: Matt Baume with a final look at the marriage races before the election.
For recent Guides to the Tube, click HERE.
What does marriage equality mean to you? "Travis Mayfield joined The Commute with Carlson to discuss his marriage and why full marriage equality matters for his family. Travis, who is openly gay and in a committed domestic partnership, took calls from KVI listeners after John asked 'Should my friend Travis Mayfield be able to legally get married?'"
Kenya’s first openly gay candidate David Kuria Mbote discusses run for senate seat: “They call me the candidate with issues. They don’t say I’m gay, they say I have issues. At the beginning I was worried people would see me only as gay, but after 30 or so public meetings, people are willing to listen. Whether they vote for me is another story, but at least they are listening.”
Looking Hot: No Doubt yanks racist video.
Romney staff refuse to let frostbitten children leave Pennsylvania rally.
Four ways the Ohio GOP Secretary of State is trying to swing the election for Romney.
Arizona GOP Senate candidate Jeff Flake robocalls Democrats and tells them to vote in the wrong place.
Nicki Minaj releases new rap song, "Freedom".
Daniel Radcliffe explains the power of his horns: "The nature of the horns means that any time I meet somebody, they end up telling me their deepest, darkest revelations."
Ewan McGregor gives good beard at the AFI Fest.
President Obama responds to 10-year-old girl's letter about her gay dads.
Skyfall breaks UK box office record: "The latest James Bond film, Skyfall, is on course to be the series' highest-grossing film so far after breaking the UK seven-day box-office record and posting $287m (£180m) in its first 10 days across the globe."
Marc Jacobs flooded out of his home by Hurricane Sandy.
Beyoncé and Jay-Z appear courtside at Brooklyn Nets opener.
Toddler fatally attacked by wild African dogs after falling into zoo enclosure in Pittsburgh."Lieutenant Kevin Kraus of the Pittsburgh police said the attack happened at about 11.45am local time on Sunday after the mother picked the child up and put him on top of a railing at the edge of a viewing deck. 'Almost immediately after that he lost his balance, fell down off the railing into the pit, and he was immediately attacked by 11 dogs,' Kraus said. 'It was very horrific.'"
Man mauled to death by captive grizzly bear in Montana. "The man was mauled by one or both of the captive-bred grizzly bears at the Animals of Montana facility north of Bozeman, Sheriff Brian Gootkin said."
NYC's flood map fails Bailey-Holt AIDS residence. "The residence director had left for the day, but came back when the flooding began. She had to wade through waist-deep water to get into the building. The water burst through an emergency exit flooding the ground floor administrative offices. It poured into and filled the basement. 'The river came rushing through,' Quattrochi said. 'She and some of the staff had to get down to get some of the important stuff up.' The power had already been cut so the 37 clients who were still in the residence and the half-dozen staff members were left without a functioning elevator and no working kitchen."
Mitt Romney emails proof of his momentum.
Frank Rich on the election, the Obama-Christie bromance, and Hurricane Sandy:" The contrast in this odd couple’s race and body types alone seemed liked a Hollywood casting director’s dream, and the ravaged seaside setting could not have been more romantic. These are just the kind of bipartisan tableaus that are said (by establishment pundits and the self-styled “centrists” of Morning Joe at least) to warm the hearts of independents. And even when Christie clarified on Sunday that he was still voting for Romney, he managed to turn it into another warm endorsement of Obama’s leadership."
Ryan James Yezak, the filmmaker behind the viral 'The Gay Rights Movement' video, has something to say to you.
Watch, AFTER THE JUMP...